New Poll Shows Hillary Falls Behind Donald Trump

[timmy]

New Poll Shows Hillary Falls Behind Donald Trump
Trump and Clinton continue to run nearly even in overall vote preferences.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are all but tied in the latest Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll, which finds Clinton backers slipping behind in enthusiasm even as the Democrat has an edge in early voting.

The tracking poll finds little shift in Clinton's overall support following news of the FBI's renewed look at Clinton emails, but strong enthusiasm among her supporters fell behind Trump in combined Saturday and Sunday interviews. By 53 to 43 percent, more Trump supporters say they are "very enthusiastic" about him, compared with Thursday and Friday when Trump's edge was negligible (53 percent vs. 51 percent).

Voter enthusiasm has been in short supply for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump through the fall campaign and continues to lag excitement about candidates on the ballot four years ago. At this point in 2012, 64 percent of Obama supporters said they were "very enthusiastic" about him; Romney was only narrowly behind at 61 percent.

Trump and Clinton continue to run nearly even in overall vote preferences, with Trump at 46 percent and Clinton 45 percent in a four-way contest in the poll conducted Thursday through Sunday. The margin is a mirror 48-47 Clinton-Trump split when third-party candidates are asked which major-party candidate they lean toward, a comparison which has grown in importance as support declines steadily for Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein.

Over 1 in 5 likely voters identified in the Post-ABC poll report as having already voted (21 percent), while about one-quarter say they plan to vote early or by mail (24 percent,) and a slight majority plan to vote in-person on Election Day. The level of early voting so far is roughly in line with expectations given the 24.7 million early votes tracked so far by the United States Election Project, which amounts to 19 percent of the 129 million ballots cast in 2012.

Clinton has a modest 54-41 percent edge among early voters in an average of the three most recent tracking poll waves, while Trump leads by a 50-39 percent margin among those looking to vote on Election Day; those who anticipate voting early are more evenly split. Those breakdowns should be treated with caution, given both the sizable 8.5-point margin of sampling error around that result as well as general challenges in tracking attitudes among a rapidly growing population.

Older Americans have flocked to vote early, with 38 percent of senior likely voters saying they have done so, compared with 18 percent of those ages 40-64 and 17 percent of voters younger than that. Women are slightly more apt to report voting early than men (26 vs. 19 percent), as are voters in urban areas (28 percent) compared with suburban and rural voters (19 percent and 22 percent).

The daily tracking poll's latest four-night wave finds voters splitting sharply along traditional political divisions, with Trump's previously lagging support among core Republican groups now nearly matching Clinton's wide support on the left. Trump holds 78 percent support among white evangelical Protestants, 77 percent among conservatives, 68 percent among rural voters and 59 percent among white men. Clinton answers with 81 percent support among liberals, 67 percent of those identifying with no religion, 60 percent of those in urban areas and 72 percent among non-whites.

Clinton and Trump receive similar support among fellow partisans, but Trump maintains an 18-point edge among political independents, significantly higher than Republicans have held in recent elections. Looking deeper at that group over a seven-day stretch, 77 percent of independents who say they lean Democratic prefer Clinton while a similar 80 percent who lean Republican favor Trump. But Trump holds a sizable 53-28 percent advantage among voters who say they don't lean toward either party, a group that accounts for about 10 percent of likely voters.

© 2016 The Washington Post 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

 

http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/new-poll-shows-hillary-falls-behind-donald-trump-1600789?pfrom=home-lateststories

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kotesthunam suthimethaga kotesthunam 

[timmy]

Just now, compose said:

[Hyper]

5 minutes ago, timmy said:

New Poll Shows Hillary Falls Behind Donald Trump
Trump and Clinton continue to run nearly even in overall vote preferences.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are all but tied in the latest Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll, which finds Clinton backers slipping behind in enthusiasm even as the Democrat has an edge in early voting.

The tracking poll finds little shift in Clinton's overall support following news of the FBI's renewed look at Clinton emails, but strong enthusiasm among her supporters fell behind Trump in combined Saturday and Sunday interviews. By 53 to 43 percent, more Trump supporters say they are "very enthusiastic" about him, compared with Thursday and Friday when Trump's edge was negligible (53 percent vs. 51 percent).

Voter enthusiasm has been in short supply for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump through the fall campaign and continues to lag excitement about candidates on the ballot four years ago. At this point in 2012, 64 percent of Obama supporters said they were "very enthusiastic" about him; Romney was only narrowly behind at 61 percent.

Trump and Clinton continue to run nearly even in overall vote preferences, with Trump at 46 percent and Clinton 45 percent in a four-way contest in the poll conducted Thursday through Sunday. The margin is a mirror 48-47 Clinton-Trump split when third-party candidates are asked which major-party candidate they lean toward, a comparison which has grown in importance as support declines steadily for Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein.

Over 1 in 5 likely voters identified in the Post-ABC poll report as having already voted (21 percent), while about one-quarter say they plan to vote early or by mail (24 percent,) and a slight majority plan to vote in-person on Election Day. The level of early voting so far is roughly in line with expectations given the 24.7 million early votes tracked so far by the United States Election Project, which amounts to 19 percent of the 129 million ballots cast in 2012.

Clinton has a modest 54-41 percent edge among early voters in an average of the three most recent tracking poll waves, while Trump leads by a 50-39 percent margin among those looking to vote on Election Day; those who anticipate voting early are more evenly split. Those breakdowns should be treated with caution, given both the sizable 8.5-point margin of sampling error around that result as well as general challenges in tracking attitudes among a rapidly growing population.

Older Americans have flocked to vote early, with 38 percent of senior likely voters saying they have done so, compared with 18 percent of those ages 40-64 and 17 percent of voters younger than that. Women are slightly more apt to report voting early than men (26 vs. 19 percent), as are voters in urban areas (28 percent) compared with suburban and rural voters (19 percent and 22 percent).

The daily tracking poll's latest four-night wave finds voters splitting sharply along traditional political divisions, with Trump's previously lagging support among core Republican groups now nearly matching Clinton's wide support on the left. Trump holds 78 percent support among white evangelical Protestants, 77 percent among conservatives, 68 percent among rural voters and 59 percent among white men. Clinton answers with 81 percent support among liberals, 67 percent of those identifying with no religion, 60 percent of those in urban areas and 72 percent among non-whites.

Clinton and Trump receive similar support among fellow partisans, but Trump maintains an 18-point edge among political independents, significantly higher than Republicans have held in recent elections. Looking deeper at that group over a seven-day stretch, 77 percent of independents who say they lean Democratic prefer Clinton while a similar 80 percent who lean Republican favor Trump. But Trump holds a sizable 53-28 percent advantage among voters who say they don't lean toward either party, a group that accounts for about 10 percent of likely voters.

© 2016 The Washington Post 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

 

http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/new-poll-shows-hillary-falls-behind-donald-trump-1600789?pfrom=home-lateststories

 

Man mana desi news channel lani namuthavav

 

[Hyper]

US election 2016 polls and odds tracker: Latest forecast Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump narrows after FBI revelations

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•  Ashley Kirk 
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• Patrick Scott 

1 NOVEMBER 2016 • 12:56PM

Polls are tightening as the race to become the 45th President of the United States enters its last week, with Donald Trump attempting to capitalise on Hillary Clinton's latest email scandal.

Until election day on 8 November, follow our poll tracker to keep up-to-date with who's on top. Based on polling data from RealClearPolitics, we have state-by-state predictions and an estimate of the overall electoral college vote. 

The news that the FBI has reopened its investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of a private server to send, receive and store government emails has handed Donald Trump an unexpected boost ahead of next Tuesday.

The FBI has obtained a warrant to begin searching newly discovered emails belonging to Huma Abedin, a top aide of Hillary Clinton, with Clinton's use of emails also in the spotlight.

There is no sign that this new investigation will be completed by election day and it seems that Clinton will have to fight the final week of her campaign with unspecified allegations hanging over her.This is ideal for Trump who was shown to be as many as 14 points behind Clinton in some polls before this latest scandal.

Clinton has been ahead almost continuously in the Telegraph's poll of polls, which takes an average of the last five polls published on RealClearPolitics.

She still retains a lead, but this could change in the coming days with some polls now showing a far closer race.

US presidential poll trackerAverage of the last five polls, based on a four-way raceTrumpClintonMar '16May '16Jul '16Sep '16Nov '163540455055Thursday, Oct 27, 2016● Trump: 44.6The presidential campaign has seen Donald Trump, once a Republican outsider, close the gap on Clinton before falling back after a series of controversies.

Trump has briefly pulled ahead a couple of times - first on 19 May. His polling threatened to consistently overtake Clinton in September, but has since fallen back after a series of allegations of sexual assault were made against him.

Trump is prone to making gaffes and alienating key demographic groupswith his comments. His comments on sexually assaulting women, as well as poor performances in the presidential debates, had seen Clinton extend her lead.

However, with the news that the FBI is once again investigating Clinton, a lot could change between now and election day.

The New York Times has worked out that, even one week before previous elections, a simple polling average has differed from the final result by about four percentage points. With the polls being still close, anything could happen.

How does the presidential election work?

Each of the 50 states, as well as the District of Columbia, has a certain amount of electoral college votes to award a candidate, based on the number of members of Congress it has. This is roughly in line with each area's population. Except in Maine and Nebraska, the votes are given on a winner-takes-all basis.

This system matters, as the popular vote is less important than the electoral college vote. Clinton's campaign should be buoyed by big Democratic states such as New York, New Jersey, Illinois and California, and these populous states could lead her to victory with their large number of electoral college votes.

For example, in 2008, Barack Obama won 53 per cent of the vote – but this led to 68 per cent of the electoral college vote. Such highly populated states played a large role when they backed the current president.

The states to watch

Swing states – states that often switch between Democrat and Republican in different elections – are also important.

States like Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia have the power to swing the election. So far, neither Trump nor Clinton has a significant lead in these crucial states.

Why are the US election polls so close?

Both candidates suffer from unpopularity, both within their own parties and among the public at large. 

Some big Republicans figures have refused to endorse Trump, while YouGov polling has shown that just over half of Bernie Sanders' supporters would back Clinton.

New York Times and CBS News polling has shown that the two candidates' popularity is limited by the public's lack of trust in both of them. 

Just a third of Americas think Clinton is honest and trustworthy, compared to 35 per cent thinking the same of Trump; 57 per cent of people say they don't share Clinton's values, while the number is even higher for Trump, at 62 per cent.

More people think Clinton has the right kind of temperament and personality to be a good president, while Trump has the advantage when people pick the candidate who they think could bring about "real change" in Washington.

What are the odds on the American presidential election?

It has long been said of predicting sporting outcomes that the bookies don’t get it far wrong, working out probabilities with complicated mathematics based on the choices of their thousands of paying punters.

After last year’s surprise General Election result in the UK, as well as the Brexit vote, many political followers have lost faith in pollsters and prefer to look at the odds to predict the future.

Hillary Clinton has been odds-on favourite since the end of February, but Trump has steadily caught her up as his Republican rivals dropped out. Last July he was a 25/1 shot while Hillary was already at evens.

Coral's latest odds for the next US president are:

• Hillary Clinton: 1/3
• Donald Trump: 9/4

How could demographics impact the US election?

Age, race, gender and education are all big dividing points in the presidential race, with polling showing that men and whites are backing Trump, and women and ethnic minorities are supporting Clinton. 

Race has always been a huge dividing line in the US election, and the clash between Trump and Clinton is no different. Just 17 per cent of Hispanics and three per cent of black people back Trump, according to recent polling.

This could prove significant in this election. For example, Hispanics account for more than a fifth of the population in four key swing states.

 

Education is another big demographic division in the race - and there's a reason why Trump said he "loved the poorly educated".

Among high school graduates or those with a lower level of education, Trump has the backing of 44 per cent - compared to the 36 per cent who support Clinton.

This could prove significant in the swing states of Georgia and Nevada, which both have a high proportion of people failing to graduate from high school.

What effect have the presidential debates had on the polls?

Hillary Clinton secured a boost from the first US presidential debate on Sept 26 to lead Donald Trump nationally.

Mrs Clinton gained four percentage points in the wake of the showdown in New York which was watched by a record 84 million people on television.

However, only nine per cent of viewers changed their minds about who they were supporting because of the debate, with many waiting until after the final two debates to decide.

Clinton's polling also increased around the second presidential debate on Oct 9, which took place just after a series of lewd comments made by Trump about women were released to the public.

How have the Trump comments affected the polls?

Trump's ratings have sunk as old clips have been released showing Trump bragging about sexually assaulting women.

His polling had threatened to overtake Clinton in September, but a series of lewd comments that have been released have dented his popularity - particularly among women. 

As voting opened as these comment were well in the public eye, a gap of five percentage points between him and Clinton had opened. Many news publications and betting companies had increased their odds on Clinton gaining the presidency. 

It is too early to say whether Trump can pull it back, capitalising on the news that the FBI is once again investigating Clinton.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast/

[timmy]

Just now, Hyper said:

Man mana desi news channel lani namuthavav

 

poorthi gaa chadivava?? adhi washington post article  NDTV vaadu vaadi website lo vesaadu okasari choodu uncle 

[Hyper]

2 minutes ago, timmy said:

poorthi gaa chadivava?? adhi washington post article  NDTV vaadu vaadi website lo vesaadu okasari choodu uncle 

i always prefer telegraph uncle...Washington vadu koncham incline anipistahdhi 

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