Exit polls

[KothaKurrodu]

Entha varaku accurate untayi. How do they know about each voter mindset 

[Sreeven]

Are you pinki 😀

[JackSeal]

1 minute ago, KothaKurrodu said:

Entha varaku accurate untayi. How do they know about each voter mindset 

🔷 West Bengal Elections (2021) Exit Polls

🔹Jan Ki Baat
BJP - 174
TMC - 112

🔹India TV
BJP - 192
TMC - 88

🔹India Today - Axis My India
BJP - 147
TMC - 143

🔹Republic  - CNX
BJP - 143
TMC - 133

🔷 Final Results
TMC - 215
BJP - 77

[Hinduism5]

1 minute ago, KothaKurrodu said:

Entha varaku accurate untayi. How do they know about each voter mindset 

Very accurate if majority point to one party. They ask the people who voted. A few may lie but if anything, they're more likely to lie and say they voted for the ruling party when they didn't than the other way around

[CricPokChic]

6 minutes ago, KothaKurrodu said:

Entha varaku accurate untayi. How do they know about each voter mindset 

Waiting for india axis who has a good track record

[CricPokChic]

[CricPokChic]

Just now, CricPokChic said:

Telangana repu chepta annadu

[KothaKurrodu]

51 minutes ago, Sreeven said:

Are you pinki 😀

In general asking. On what basis they predict ani. How do they know public pulse at each village level booth

[dasari4kntr]

11 minutes ago, KothaKurrodu said:

In general asking. On what basis they predict ani. How do they know public pulse at each village level booth

In political surveys, predicting outcomes like election results or public opinion trends involves various methodologies beyond simple random sampling. Here are some notable methods:

1. **Stratified Sampling:** This involves dividing the population into subgroups (strata) and then sampling from each stratum. This can ensure representation across different demographic or geographical groups.

2. **Weighted Sampling:** Weighting adjusts the results of a survey to match them more closely with the known attributes of the entire population. For instance, if a certain demographic is underrepresented in the sample, their responses might be given more weight.

3. **Panel Surveys:** Longitudinal surveys that repeatedly sample the same respondents over time. This can be useful for tracking changes in opinions or predicting trends.

4. **Quota Sampling:** Interviewers fill quotas for various demographic categories to ensure the sample represents these groups proportionally to their presence in the total population.

5. **Snowball Sampling:** Useful in reaching populations that are difficult to sample, like specific interest groups. Current respondents are asked to identify others who belong to the target population.

6. **Convenience Sampling:** Involves collecting data from easily accessible and cooperative respondents, although it's less representative and more prone to bias.

7. **Mixed-Mode Surveys:** Combining different modes of surveys (online, telephone, face-to-face) to reach a broader audience and reduce non-response bias.

8. **Rolling Cross-Section Surveys:** Samples different segments of the population at different times, which can capture changes in public opinion during the survey period.

9. **Use of Big Data and Analytics:** Analyzing large datasets from various sources like social media, internet search trends, and other digital footprints to gauge public opinion and predict political trends.

10. **Machine Learning and AI Techniques:** Employing advanced algorithms to analyze complex data sets, identifying patterns and trends that might not be apparent through traditional methods.

Each of these methods has its own strengths and weaknesses, and the choice often depends on the specific objectives, the target population, the resources available, and the timeframe of the survey. Combining multiple methods can sometimes yield more reliable and nuanced insights.

[Gorantlamdhav]

1 hour ago, JackSeal said:

🔷 West Bengal Elections (2021) Exit Polls

🔹Jan Ki Baat
BJP - 174
TMC - 112

🔹India TV
BJP - 192
TMC - 88

🔹India Today - Axis My India
BJP - 147
TMC - 143

🔹Republic  - CNX
BJP - 143
TMC - 133

🔷 Final Results
TMC - 215
BJP - 77

Avi veru mana daggara veru

chinna state is always accurate also 50% population is in hyd which is not congi 

all rural is congi 

based on this exit polls are close like 50-60 for each gulabi and hastam

[dasari4kntr]

33 minutes ago, KothaKurrodu said:

In general asking. On what basis they predict ani. How do they know public pulse at each village level booth

 

21 minutes ago, dasari4kntr said:

In political surveys, predicting outcomes like election results or public opinion trends involves various methodologies beyond simple random sampling. Here are some notable methods:

1. **Stratified Sampling:** This involves dividing the population into subgroups (strata) and then sampling from each stratum. This can ensure representation across different demographic or geographical groups.

2. **Weighted Sampling:** Weighting adjusts the results of a survey to match them more closely with the known attributes of the entire population. For instance, if a certain demographic is underrepresented in the sample, their responses might be given more weight.

3. **Panel Surveys:** Longitudinal surveys that repeatedly sample the same respondents over time. This can be useful for tracking changes in opinions or predicting trends.

4. **Quota Sampling:** Interviewers fill quotas for various demographic categories to ensure the sample represents these groups proportionally to their presence in the total population.

5. **Snowball Sampling:** Useful in reaching populations that are difficult to sample, like specific interest groups. Current respondents are asked to identify others who belong to the target population.

6. **Convenience Sampling:** Involves collecting data from easily accessible and cooperative respondents, although it's less representative and more prone to bias.

7. **Mixed-Mode Surveys:** Combining different modes of surveys (online, telephone, face-to-face) to reach a broader audience and reduce non-response bias.

8. **Rolling Cross-Section Surveys:** Samples different segments of the population at different times, which can capture changes in public opinion during the survey period.

9. **Use of Big Data and Analytics:** Analyzing large datasets from various sources like social media, internet search trends, and other digital footprints to gauge public opinion and predict political trends.

10. **Machine Learning and AI Techniques:** Employing advanced algorithms to analyze complex data sets, identifying patterns and trends that might not be apparent through traditional methods.

Each of these methods has its own strengths and weaknesses, and the choice often depends on the specific objectives, the target population, the resources available, and the timeframe of the survey. Combining multiple methods can sometimes yield more reliable and nuanced insights.

b.sc (maths, statistics, computer science) chadive tappudu…statistics lo ee sampling anedhi oka subject…

appudu peddaga concentrate cheyyala ee topics…

[CricPokChic]