** Bharat 2024 **

[Android_Halwa]

Low turnout valla nastam...

1. Scheduled castes moving back to Congress (signs kanipistunayi)

2. Minorities going to non-BJP en masse will dent BJP's prospects in Cow Belt.  Parties esp Samajwadi in UP, DMK in Tamil Nadu, TMC in Bengal, and RJD in Bihar will gain at the expense of BJP.

3. Hindus minset: Isari kuda paka ga gelichedi Modi ae evadu emanna ani haiga into kurchuntaru AC esukuni...Minsorites will be like ide last chance lekapothey inkoka term or perhaps forever manaki reservations potayi ani kasi tho andaru katta katukuni voting ki veltaru....ie mindset chalu nakipodaniki.

Voting pattern improve avakapothey, akariki ide DB lo @bhaigan ki kuda congratulations chepalsina roju vastadi.

[bithrisathiiiii]

  On 4/30/2024 at 5:30 PM, Spartan said:

Voter turnout chusi bhayamestundi  @Android_Halwa @Raisins_72

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  On 4/30/2024 at 5:52 PM, Spartan said:

janalu ease teskunte kashtam...evadu vestunnado teliyakunda..

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  On 4/30/2024 at 6:22 PM, Android_Halwa said:

Kada….I felt the same. Seriousness in elections phase by phase taggipotadi and last two phases varaku momentum vuntada asalu ?

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  On 4/30/2024 at 6:58 PM, Android_Halwa said:

I have that fear too, low turn out in the next three phases aithe dhebba padadam khayam. 

BJP vallu mari confident ga vundadam valla, elago vachedi valle kada manam vote vesina veyakunna ane feeling lo vunatu vunnaru  public.

Worst case scenario lo Single largest party...plus friends like BJD and YCP minimum guarantee but oka golden opportunity chetilo nundi potundi ani fikar...

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worst case lo bjp ki 250 anna vastayi, but govt form chestadi. may be voter fatigue, low turn out always helps ruling party, people want to defeat ruling party voter turnout will be high

[Spartan]

  On 4/30/2024 at 7:04 PM, Android_Halwa said:

Low turnout valla nastam...

1. Scheduled castes moving back to Congress (signs kanipistunayi)

2. Minorities going to non-BJP en masse will dent BJP's prospects in Cow Belt.  Parties esp Samajwadi in UP, DMK in Tamil Nadu, TMC in Bengal, and RJD in Bihar will gain at the expense of BJP.

3. Hindus minset: Isari kuda paka ga gelichedi Modi ae evadu emanna ani haiga into kurchuntaru AC esukuni...Minsorites will be like ide last chance lekapothey inkoka term or perhaps forever manaki reservations potayi ani kasi tho andaru katta katukuni voting ki veltaru....ie mindset chalu nakipodaniki.

Voting pattern improve avakapothey, akariki ide DB lo @bhaigan ki kuda congratulations chepalsina roju vastadi.

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exactly...these things are worrying.

[Spartan]

Going into the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the ideological left had convinced itself that the BJP’s goose was cooked. That the party, so blinded by its own success, has turned a Nelson’s eye to the sullen and silent voter who will punish the saffron front for “prevaricating” on an OBC-SC-ST caste census, for not creating enough “productive jobs” and for “favouring the rich”.

And when the seven-phase polls began on April 19, the ideological opposition to the NDA began hunting for any indication, however tenuous, to confirm its biases.

Little wonder then that it has made a very big deal about the underwhelming voter turnout in phase 1 and 2 of the election. One group of the Narendra Modi-led NDA’s critics has even branded the palpable disinterest of voters as a “rebellious rejection” of the incumbent.

Before we analyse whether the conclusion is right or wrong let’s first establish the turnout figures.

In a total of 190 seats spread across phase 1 and phase 2 of the Lok Sabha elections, the turnout stood at 67.2% and 66.7%, respectively. Taken together, the turnout was a little over 3 percentage points (pp) lower than in 2019. Clearly, appeals to voters by Prime Minister Modi ahead of phase 2 failed to energise them.

Does this failure of the BJP to galvanise the voters suggest deep-seated elector disenchantment?

Let’s study the historical record to examine whether a correlation can be made between low voter turnout and anti-incumbency.

First, there have been at least four Lok Sabha elections where turnout slid and had negative voter participation been a sign of anti-incumbency then Jawaharlal Nehru’s government would’ve lost in 1957, Indira Gandhi’s in 1971, Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s in 1999 and BJP state governments in Gujarat assembly polls in 2017 and 2022.

To be exact, in 1957, Nehru won a second term despite a 0.57% drop in voter turnout. In 1971, Indira won despite a 5.7% drop in voter turnout. Interestingly, in 1999, the voter turnout dipped by almost 2% even though the election was conducted just after the Kargil war.In 2017, the Gujarat assembly polls saw a 3% drop in voter turnout but the BJP was back and won again in 2022 though the turnout registered a steep 5.4% drop.

In these cases, the reason for the drop in turnout in all probability was voter fatigue and not necessarily a sign of voter anger directed against the incumbent.

Conversely, of the 17 Lok Sabha elections that have been conducted since 1952, the turnout increased 10 times. The turnout jump didn’t hand any one side the advantage. The incumbent lost four times and won in six elections.

But it is also true that NDA’s victories coincided with higher voter turnout in all Lok Sabha elections except in 1999. Is it therefore reasonable to assume that a higher polling percentage is crucial for the BJP?

This brings us to examine a second set of data points.

In their work, psephologists Dorab Sopariwala and Dr Prannoy Roy conclude that despite the high overall voter turnout the BJP’s winning percentage was much better on lower voter turnout seats.

The duo disaggregated the overall voter turnout and looked at urban-rural constituencies and then exclusively at rural constituencies where the turnout was above 60%. This mix was taken to discount the BJP’s greater support base and natural predilection to win in urban constituencies.

Sopariwala and Roy’s study concluded that the BJP-led NDA performed better in low-turnout constituencies in the 2004, 2009, and 2014 Lok Sabha polls. So much so that the duo noticed that “the BJP+’s margins of victory dropped, and in some cases ‘lost’ to the Congress+ in high-turnout seats…”

This interesting statistical exercise reveals that the BJP is more successful in constituencies where the turnout is lower perhaps because being a cadre-based party it has the organisational wherewithal to get its core base to the polling booth.

Third, if a lower vote percentage automatically spelt defeat for the incumbent, then all of the INDIA bloc’s star candidates in phase 1 and phase 2 are in danger of losing.

And we’re talking about Rahul Gandhi, Shashi Tharoor, Nakul Nath, Gaurav Gogoi, KC Venugopal, and Dayanidhi Maran. In all their constituencies the voting percentage has fallen between 1.5% to a maximum of nearly 8%. While some of these stars might bite the dust on June 4, enough of them will also win to disprove the theory that low voter turnout is associated almost always with a vote for change.

The three points highlighted above clearly reveal that it is tendentious to draw a causality between turnout statistics and electoral results.

[socrates]

  On 4/30/2024 at 9:19 PM, Spartan said:

Going into the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the ideological left had convinced itself that the BJP’s goose was cooked. That the party, so blinded by its own success, has turned a Nelson’s eye to the sullen and silent voter who will punish the saffron front for “prevaricating” on an OBC-SC-ST caste census, for not creating enough “productive jobs” and for “favouring the rich”.

And when the seven-phase polls began on April 19, the ideological opposition to the NDA began hunting for any indication, however tenuous, to confirm its biases.

Little wonder then that it has made a very big deal about the underwhelming voter turnout in phase 1 and 2 of the election. One group of the Narendra Modi-led NDA’s critics has even branded the palpable disinterest of voters as a “rebellious rejection” of the incumbent.

Before we analyse whether the conclusion is right or wrong let’s first establish the turnout figures.

In a total of 190 seats spread across phase 1 and phase 2 of the Lok Sabha elections, the turnout stood at 67.2% and 66.7%, respectively. Taken together, the turnout was a little over 3 percentage points (pp) lower than in 2019. Clearly, appeals to voters by Prime Minister Modi ahead of phase 2 failed to energise them.

Does this failure of the BJP to galvanise the voters suggest deep-seated elector disenchantment?

Let’s study the historical record to examine whether a correlation can be made between low voter turnout and anti-incumbency.

First, there have been at least four Lok Sabha elections where turnout slid and had negative voter participation been a sign of anti-incumbency then Jawaharlal Nehru’s government would’ve lost in 1957, Indira Gandhi’s in 1971, Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s in 1999 and BJP state governments in Gujarat assembly polls in 2017 and 2022.

To be exact, in 1957, Nehru won a second term despite a 0.57% drop in voter turnout. In 1971, Indira won despite a 5.7% drop in voter turnout. Interestingly, in 1999, the voter turnout dipped by almost 2% even though the election was conducted just after the Kargil war.In 2017, the Gujarat assembly polls saw a 3% drop in voter turnout but the BJP was back and won again in 2022 though the turnout registered a steep 5.4% drop.

In these cases, the reason for the drop in turnout in all probability was voter fatigue and not necessarily a sign of voter anger directed against the incumbent.

Conversely, of the 17 Lok Sabha elections that have been conducted since 1952, the turnout increased 10 times. The turnout jump didn’t hand any one side the advantage. The incumbent lost four times and won in six elections.

But it is also true that NDA’s victories coincided with higher voter turnout in all Lok Sabha elections except in 1999. Is it therefore reasonable to assume that a higher polling percentage is crucial for the BJP?

This brings us to examine a second set of data points.

In their work, psephologists Dorab Sopariwala and Dr Prannoy Roy conclude that despite the high overall voter turnout the BJP’s winning percentage was much better on lower voter turnout seats.

The duo disaggregated the overall voter turnout and looked at urban-rural constituencies and then exclusively at rural constituencies where the turnout was above 60%. This mix was taken to discount the BJP’s greater support base and natural predilection to win in urban constituencies.

Sopariwala and Roy’s study concluded that the BJP-led NDA performed better in low-turnout constituencies in the 2004, 2009, and 2014 Lok Sabha polls. So much so that the duo noticed that “the BJP+’s margins of victory dropped, and in some cases ‘lost’ to the Congress+ in high-turnout seats…”

This interesting statistical exercise reveals that the BJP is more successful in constituencies where the turnout is lower perhaps because being a cadre-based party it has the organisational wherewithal to get its core base to the polling booth.

Third, if a lower vote percentage automatically spelt defeat for the incumbent, then all of the INDIA bloc’s star candidates in phase 1 and phase 2 are in danger of losing.

And we’re talking about Rahul Gandhi, Shashi Tharoor, Nakul Nath, Gaurav Gogoi, KC Venugopal, and Dayanidhi Maran. In all their constituencies the voting percentage has fallen between 1.5% to a maximum of nearly 8%. While some of these stars might bite the dust on June 4, enough of them will also win to disprove the theory that low voter turnout is associated almost always with a vote for change.

The three points highlighted above clearly reveal that it is tendentious to draw a causality between turnout statistics and electoral results.

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its very simple

BJP was using religion card so congress used caste card this time in retaliation

you have to see this election as religion vs caste

eppudithe reservations meeda rachha jarigindho ee time lo akkade BJP lost few votes, ee time lo UCC anetollu reservations gurinchi entha positive gaa maatladina janaalaki ekkadu endukante reservations are more than god to them

on top of it PM speech referring M is additional point to congress (only few right winger supporters appreciate that speech but not plethora of population)

[Android_Halwa]

Amit Shah's road show in Asli Hyderabad.

 

[jalsa01]

Enti Central lo peddaga sounnd ledhu like in 2019.. total one sided ani vadilesara  leka 2004 laga shocking aa ?

[bithrisathiiiii]

  On 5/2/2024 at 3:56 PM, jalsa01 said:

Enti Central lo peddaga sounnd ledhu like in 2019.. total one sided ani vadilesara  leka 2004 laga shocking aa ?

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2014 and 2019 lo highest turnout anna, slight drop doesnot make much difference to ruling party

[jalsa01]

  On 4/30/2024 at 7:05 PM, bithrisathiiiii said:

 

 

 

worst case lo bjp ki 250 anna vastayi, but govt form chestadi. may be voter fatigue, low turn out always helps ruling party, people want to defeat ruling party voter turnout will be high

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North Belt talk entante elage low voting poll ite (Minorites lo high vote %) BJP might endup some where between 220-250 ani.. Markets kuda panic mode loki vachesai..

[pakeer_saab]

  On 4/30/2024 at 9:19 PM, Spartan said:

Going into the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the ideological left had convinced itself that the BJP’s goose was cooked. That the party, so blinded by its own success, has turned a Nelson’s eye to the sullen and silent voter who will punish the saffron front for “prevaricating” on an OBC-SC-ST caste census, for not creating enough “productive jobs” and for “favouring the rich”.

And when the seven-phase polls began on April 19, the ideological opposition to the NDA began hunting for any indication, however tenuous, to confirm its biases.

Little wonder then that it has made a very big deal about the underwhelming voter turnout in phase 1 and 2 of the election. One group of the Narendra Modi-led NDA’s critics has even branded the palpable disinterest of voters as a “rebellious rejection” of the incumbent.

Before we analyse whether the conclusion is right or wrong let’s first establish the turnout figures.

In a total of 190 seats spread across phase 1 and phase 2 of the Lok Sabha elections, the turnout stood at 67.2% and 66.7%, respectively. Taken together, the turnout was a little over 3 percentage points (pp) lower than in 2019. Clearly, appeals to voters by Prime Minister Modi ahead of phase 2 failed to energise them.

Does this failure of the BJP to galvanise the voters suggest deep-seated elector disenchantment?

Let’s study the historical record to examine whether a correlation can be made between low voter turnout and anti-incumbency.

First, there have been at least four Lok Sabha elections where turnout slid and had negative voter participation been a sign of anti-incumbency then Jawaharlal Nehru’s government would’ve lost in 1957, Indira Gandhi’s in 1971, Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s in 1999 and BJP state governments in Gujarat assembly polls in 2017 and 2022.

To be exact, in 1957, Nehru won a second term despite a 0.57% drop in voter turnout. In 1971, Indira won despite a 5.7% drop in voter turnout. Interestingly, in 1999, the voter turnout dipped by almost 2% even though the election was conducted just after the Kargil war.In 2017, the Gujarat assembly polls saw a 3% drop in voter turnout but the BJP was back and won again in 2022 though the turnout registered a steep 5.4% drop.

In these cases, the reason for the drop in turnout in all probability was voter fatigue and not necessarily a sign of voter anger directed against the incumbent.

Conversely, of the 17 Lok Sabha elections that have been conducted since 1952, the turnout increased 10 times. The turnout jump didn’t hand any one side the advantage. The incumbent lost four times and won in six elections.

But it is also true that NDA’s victories coincided with higher voter turnout in all Lok Sabha elections except in 1999. Is it therefore reasonable to assume that a higher polling percentage is crucial for the BJP?

This brings us to examine a second set of data points.

In their work, psephologists Dorab Sopariwala and Dr Prannoy Roy conclude that despite the high overall voter turnout the BJP’s winning percentage was much better on lower voter turnout seats.

The duo disaggregated the overall voter turnout and looked at urban-rural constituencies and then exclusively at rural constituencies where the turnout was above 60%. This mix was taken to discount the BJP’s greater support base and natural predilection to win in urban constituencies.

Sopariwala and Roy’s study concluded that the BJP-led NDA performed better in low-turnout constituencies in the 2004, 2009, and 2014 Lok Sabha polls. So much so that the duo noticed that “the BJP+’s margins of victory dropped, and in some cases ‘lost’ to the Congress+ in high-turnout seats…”

This interesting statistical exercise reveals that the BJP is more successful in constituencies where the turnout is lower perhaps because being a cadre-based party it has the organisational wherewithal to get its core base to the polling booth.

Third, if a lower vote percentage automatically spelt defeat for the incumbent, then all of the INDIA bloc’s star candidates in phase 1 and phase 2 are in danger of losing.

And we’re talking about Rahul Gandhi, Shashi Tharoor, Nakul Nath, Gaurav Gogoi, KC Venugopal, and Dayanidhi Maran. In all their constituencies the voting percentage has fallen between 1.5% to a maximum of nearly 8%. While some of these stars might bite the dust on June 4, enough of them will also win to disprove the theory that low voter turnout is associated almost always with a vote for change.

The three points highlighted above clearly reveal that it is tendentious to draw a causality between turnout statistics and electoral results.

Expand  

one thing to remember, 2024 is year of Saturn

those who work for masses will achieve greater heights, while those fake around will be down to street

No matter that those stupids argue with past numbers, there is no other better option than Modi is reality

fence sitter typically vote for leader who is doing something that those claimed they will do something but failed when their turn came in past

but if whole India is in "AP" mode (aka self destruction mode), then only god can save india.

[bithrisathiiiii]

  On 5/3/2024 at 5:07 PM, jalsa01 said:

North Belt talk entante elage low voting poll ite (Minorites lo high vote %) BJP might endup some where between 220-250 ani.. Markets kuda panic mode loki vachesai..

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Something happened  in 2019, bjp won't return to power ani. Worst case scenario  bjp will be single largest party with 250 seats 

[pakeer_saab]

  On 5/4/2024 at 8:54 PM, bithrisathiiiii said:

Something happened  in 2019, bjp won't return to power ani. Worst case scenario  bjp will be single largest party with 250 seats 

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BJP technically has nothing to lose, Modi specially can live his life in Jail if congress comes to power and they manage to put him behind bars

its the country that will  up, it will take 50 more yrs to be in same situation again

dont  around and find out when you are doing just fine

#FAFO

[bithrisathiiiii]

  On 5/5/2024 at 2:20 AM, pakeer_saab said:

BJP technically has nothing to lose, Modi specially can live his life in Jail if congress comes to power and they manage to put him behind bars

its the country that will  up, it will take 50 more yrs to be in same situation again

dont  around and find out when you are doing just fine

#FAFO

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Stop the crap buddy. Every one knows nation progressed in bjp

[anna_gari_maata]

  On 4/30/2024 at 7:04 PM, Android_Halwa said:

Low turnout valla nastam...

1. Scheduled castes moving back to Congress (signs kanipistunayi)

2. Minorities going to non-BJP en masse will dent BJP's prospects in Cow Belt.  Parties esp Samajwadi in UP, DMK in Tamil Nadu, TMC in Bengal, and RJD in Bihar will gain at the expense of BJP.

3. Hindus minset: Isari kuda paka ga gelichedi Modi ae evadu emanna ani haiga into kurchuntaru AC esukuni...Minsorites will be like ide last chance lekapothey inkoka term or perhaps forever manaki reservations potayi ani kasi tho andaru katta katukuni voting ki veltaru....ie mindset chalu nakipodaniki.

Voting pattern improve avakapothey, akariki ide DB lo @bhaigan ki kuda congratulations chepalsina roju vastadi.

Expand  

BJP solved most of the lingering issues so common junta doesn't have a strong reason to vote

[Spartan]

ivala mandu sitting lo kuda same discussion

voter turn out ekkada bokka pedtado ani