Aaraa survey ... Digging deeper

[AndhraneedSCS]

He gave 49.51% of vote share to YSRCP.

 

How is this possible? YCP got 49.95% in 2019. How come just .46% decrease after Jagan anna rule?

 

Most Govt employees shifted from one camp to another. With about 5 Lakh postal ballots, their families included will make it go to about 12 Lakh votes easily. Here, we see about 2% Decrease (assuming not all vote single-sided).

 

Given what is going on with Capital and what we see in Nellore, I am unsure how to believe this survey. There is also some angst about the lack of development.

 

I am unsure if any groups voted for YCP now but did not vote for YCP in 2019.

 

 

[Trump_is_a_moron9]

59 minutes ago, AndhraneedSCS said:

He gave 49.51% of vote share to YSRCP.

 

How is this possible? YCP got 49.95% in 2019. How come just .46% decrease after Jagan anna rule?

 

Most Govt employees shifted from one camp to another. With about 5 Lakh postal ballots, their families included will make it go to about 12 Lakh votes easily. Here, we see about 2% Decrease (assuming not all vote single-sided).

 

Given what is going on with Capital and what we see in Nellore, I am unsure how to believe this survey. There is also some angst about the lack of development.

 

I am unsure if any groups voted for YCP now but did not vote for YCP in 2019.

 

 

If you look at Aaraa's face during the press meet, he seemed very uncomfortable. After talking about winning prospects of few contestants, he started spewing Jagan's talking points (SC/ST/Minorities/Women/pension/welfare blah blah). It wasn't even in sync with the narrow victory he gave and would have been more apt if he gave 151+ to Jagan. He also cleverly put +/- 2% margins which is enough for YSRCP to lose. That being said, it is literally the only reputed survey that YSRCP has. 

[Thokkalee]

The whole narrative that the poll is going to be accurate bcoz the pollster was correct last time… is ridiculous!! 

Consistent ga oka 4-5 elections correct ga chepthe, we can at least hope he will be correct.. but Mastan was an unknown before 2019.. even in 2019, he worked for ysrcp.. 

[Teluguredu]

1 minute ago, Thokkalee said:

The whole narrative that the poll is going to be accurate bcoz the pollster was correct last time… is ridiculous!! 

Consistent ga oka 4-5 elections correct ga chepthe, we can at least hope he will be correct.. but Mastan was an unknown before 2019.. even in 2019, he worked for ysrcp.. 

He stopped working for ycp in 2014 itself ,he was right for 4 elections .he has never been wrong till now.

[TOM_BHAYYA]

2 hours ago, AndhraneedSCS said:

He gave 49.51% of vote share to YSRCP.

 

How is this possible? YCP got 49.95% in 2019. How come just .46% decrease after Jagan anna rule?

 

Most Govt employees shifted from one camp to another. With about 5 Lakh postal ballots, their families included will make it go to about 12 Lakh votes easily. Here, we see about 2% Decrease (assuming not all vote single-sided).

 

Given what is going on with Capital and what we see in Nellore, I am unsure how to believe this survey. There is also some angst about the lack of development.

 

I am unsure if any groups voted for YCP now but did not vote for YCP in 2019.

 

 

Another imp point he mentioned in his previous interviews:

fews lakhs women voters were added this time .. and majority going to vote for YCP.

[Naaperushiva]

2 hours ago, AndhraneedSCS said:

He gave 49.51% of vote share to YSRCP.

 

How is this possible? YCP got 49.95% in 2019. How come just .46% decrease after Jagan anna rule?

 

Most Govt employees shifted from one camp to another. With about 5 Lakh postal ballots, their families included will make it go to about 12 Lakh votes easily. Here, we see about 2% Decrease (assuming not all vote single-sided).

 

Given what is going on with Capital and what we see in Nellore, I am unsure how to believe this survey. There is also some angst about the lack of development.

 

I am unsure if any groups voted for YCP now but did not vote for YCP in 2019.

 

 

 

9 minutes ago, TOM_BHAYYA said:

Another imp point he mentioned in his previous interviews:

fews lakhs women voters were added this time .. and majority going to vote for YCP.

yes last election tho polisthe ee term 4 lks women voters perigaaru vaadu 56% to ycp annadu kadha

also usually bc's tdp strong hold kadha so aara maasthan % YCP ki raavali antey YCP social engineering work ayyi vundaali to get that numbers anukuntunna

[Keth]

15 minutes ago, Naaperushiva said:

 

yes last election tho polisthe ee term 4 lks women voters perigaaru vaadu 56% to ycp annadu kadha

also usually bc's tdp strong hold kadha so aara maasthan % YCP ki raavali antey YCP social engineering work ayyi vundaali to get that numbers anukuntunna

ah perigina vaaru educated avutaru 80 percent correct?

vallu ycp ki enduku vestaru anna

[Naaperushiva]

3 minutes ago, Keth said:

ah perigina vaaru educated avutaru 80 percent correct?

vallu ycp ki enduku vestaru anna

vaadu YCP win antunnadu kadha baa so alaantappudu paina TS numbers not adding up annadhaaniki saying

may bemasthan lekka idemo ani

[tables]

2 hours ago, Trump_is_a_moron9 said:

If you look at Aaraa's face during the press meet, he seemed very uncomfortable. After talking about winning prospects of few contestants, he started spewing Jagan's talking points (SC/ST/Minorities/Women/pension/welfare blah blah). It wasn't even in sync with the narrow victory he gave and would have been more apt if he gave 151+ to Jagan. He also cleverly put +/- 2% margins which is enough for YSRCP to lose. That being said, it is literally the only reputed survey that YSRCP has. 

how many reputed surveys gave kutami chance besides axis?

[Thokkalee]

1 hour ago, Teluguredu said:

He stopped working for ycp in 2014 itself ,he was right for 4 elections .he has never been wrong till now.

What are those 4 elections? Dont tell me about by elections.. general elections enni cheppadu? 

[Teluguredu]

1 minute ago, Thokkalee said:

What are those 4 elections? Dont tell me about by elections.. general elections enni cheppadu? 

3 elections* tg 2018,2023 andhra 2019.

[tables]

Just now, Thokkalee said:

What are those 4 elections? Dont tell me about by elections.. general elections enni cheppadu? 

2018 trs, 2019 ycp,2023 congress, 2020 ghmc

[vokatonumberkurrodu]

It could be that he is playing safe.

male % or women % seperate ga choosi prediction ivvadam kastam...its very rare where in a family husband and wife's political choices are different.

so swing could be either side. either YSRCP could win big or TDP can win big. He knows that but doesnt know which way it will swing. so close to neutral prediction ichedu.

[allbakara]

5 hours ago, AndhraneedSCS said:

He gave 49.51% of vote share to YSRCP.

 

How is this possible? YCP got 49.95% in 2019. How come just .46% decrease after Jagan anna rule?

 

Most Govt employees shifted from one camp to another. With about 5 Lakh postal ballots, their families included will make it go to about 12 Lakh votes easily. Here, we see about 2% Decrease (assuming not all vote single-sided).

 

Given what is going on with Capital and what we see in Nellore, I am unsure how to believe this survey. There is also some angst about the lack of development.

 

I am unsure if any groups voted for YCP now but did not vote for YCP in 2019.

 

 

Nellore lo what happened? Didn’t follow the news

[appusri]

7 hours ago, Teluguredu said:

He stopped working for ycp in 2014 itself ,he was right for 4 elections .he has never been wrong till now.

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/amp/140421/nation-politics/article/jaganmohan-reddy-lead-andhra-pradesh-says-survey