***** Kargil II On The Horizon? *****

[JANASENA]

The recent increase in hostilities in Jammu could be the early beginnings of a ‘Kargil II’-like conflict – after a soldier was killed and four others, including a captain, were injured as the Indian Army foiled an attack on Saturday by Pakistan’s Border Action Team (BAT) in the Kamakari sector of Jammu and Kashmir’s Kupwara district – top intelligence sources said.

 

A Pakistani intruder was also killed in the exchange of fire, while two more managed to return to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) amid the intense gunfight that lasted for hours.

The intelligence sources said that the recent attacks signal that special forces of Pakistan are backing the operation and the non-state actors involved.

They drew a similarity to the Kargil War of 1999 because at that time also Pakistani armed forces trained and deployed troops and terrorists who launched an attack to seize fortified positions overlooking NH 1A in the Drass and Batalik sectors of Kargil in Ladakh. India understood that the attack was a well-organized military operation and defeated Pakistan in Operation Vijay, a war that was fought over the summer of 1999.

‘Diversion Tactic’

The intelligence sources also said that Kargil II could be fueled with the aim of creating an international diversion and deflect attention from the Ukraine War.

According to sources, the US and the West might be fueling this conflict to divert attention from the Ukraine war.

To give concessions to Russia, two artificial crises are being created: one involving a conflict between the Taliban and Iran, and the second being Kargil II.

Sources claim that the West is upset with India and is using Pakistan to undermine India’s relationship with Russia.

Missing US Weapons From Afghanistan

The US left behind more than $7.1 billion worth of military equipment in Afghanistan when its democratically-elected government fell to the Taliban in August 2021 amid the US troop withdrawal, a US defence department report published in August 2022 said.

Earlier this month, security personnel recovered a Steyr AUG rifle, used by militaries across the globe, from two terrorists, leading to worry among officials that weapons from Afghanistan have now reached Jammu and Kashmir.

Indian agencies suspect that the weapons, left behind by the US Army after their withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, have finally reached Kashmir and are now in the hands of terrorists targeting civilians and security personnel.

A large number of weapons left behind by the US in Kabul are missing, with a 600-page memo from the Haqqani group detailing the weapons unaccounted for. He further informed Taliban chief Haibatullah Akhundzada about the need for funds to buy back these weapons.

Kargil II With Missing US Weapons?

With weapons easily available, Pakistan could readily start a second Kargil conflict, the aforementioned sources said.

They said that if Indian authorities decided to trace back the weapons after a possible conflict, these weapons would end up being linked to the Taliban rather than Pakistan.

CNN-News18 reported that Pakistan received substantial funding from China to ‘fight terrorism’, with part of it diverted to the Kashmir conflict. Additionally, the US recently passed a small budget for Pakistan to keep it away from Chinese influence.

Intelligence sources said a ‘Kargil II’ like operation will act as a diversion from the Ukraine War because the West ‘needs manageable crises in some other part of the world’.

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Indian officials had recently raised the possibility of Pakistan using Afghan fighters to disturb Jammu and Kashmir as well and found that the style of attack has footprints of Afghan fighters.

They said that Pakistan’s BAT’s actions suggest that Pakistan Army is also active in some form to give the idea of a Kargil II a firm shape.