Nov Elections Advantage Dump Thata ? Israel and Iran Conflict

[andhra_jp]

Israel and Iran have just delivered the US election’s ‘October surprise’

With American policy in the Middle East in tatters, Donald Trump could be the principal beneficiary of escalation in the region

For the past year, the Biden administration has struggled to prevent a regional war in the Middle East, fearing that it might draw in the US or wreak havoc on the world economy.

This policy is now very close to failing. For the second time this year, Iran has fired missiles at Israel, and the US has helped Israel to shoot the missiles down. Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, has promised that there will be “severe consequences” for Iran and has said that the US will “work with Israel” to ensure that this is the case. That sounds ominously like a threat of joint US-Israeli military action against Iran.

The chances of America refusing to back Israel in a crisis — always slight — are further minimised by the fact that the US presidential election is little more than a month away. Kamala Harris has flirted with taking a tougher line with Netanyahu on Gaza. But she will also want to appear tough and fully supportive of Israel at a time of danger. And she cannot risk appearing to be soft on Iran, with which the US has its own long history of antagonism, dating back to the hostage crisis of 1979-81.

Nonetheless, the current perilous situation could be bad news for Harris. Donald Trump likes to claim that the world was at peace during his presidency, but that the “weakness” of the Biden administration has led to wars in Europe and the Middle East. This latest escalation suits his narrative perfectly.

Every time there is a presidential election in America, there is speculation about a possible “October surprise” that upturns the race with only weeks left before the vote. Israel and Iran have just delivered this election’s October surprise, and Trump may be the beneficiary.