What is the Real Wait Time for EB-2 India? 82.5 Years

[solman]

[solman]

Foreign nationals rely on the monthly Visa Bulletin issued by the Department of State in order to estimate the length of the wait to receive a green card in various employment sponsored visa categories. However, the Visa Bulletin really only tells us who may be eligible during a given month. Attempts to estimate waiting periods based on the current month’s visa bulletin can be completely inaccurate.

For instance, an Indian national who received a job offer today for a permanent position requiring an Advanced Degree where a qualified US worker could not be found may look at the Visa Bulletin for October 2016 and see that the cutoff date is January 15, 2007. Based on this date, one would assume that the waiting period may be approximately 9 years and 8 months (the amount of time between January 15, 2007 and October 1, 2016). This is an incredibly long wait, but the actual wait time is decades longer.

The U.S. Department of State (DOS) gives out 140,000 employment-based visas each year. About 85% of those visas go to people seeking a green card in the United States, while about 15% go to people seeking to immigrate from abroad. In 2016, about 234,000 people have employment-based adjustment of status (green card) applications already pending in the United States and are waiting to get a visa. How long you wait for a visa depends on the supply and demand for your particular preference category, your priority date, and the country your visa will be charged to, usually your country of birth.

Getting back to our example, the EB-2 Preference Category (i.e. category for jobs that require an Advanced Degree) currently has about 19,040 people from India alone who received job offers before May 2010 waiting in line with a pending Adjustment of Status application. However, this number does not include all potential employment-based immigrants. This number contains only principal and dependent employment-based I-485s pending at USCIS Service Centers and Field Offices. It does not include cases pending consular processing at overseas posts. It also does not include individuals and their dependents with a pending or approved I-140 petition who have not yet filed an I-485 application or begun consular processing. There are many, many individuals who do not currently appear on the inventory, either because they are awaiting consular processing or because they have not filed an I-485. What this means is that we don’t have a clue how many people may have received job offers after May 2010 who are waiting just to file an Adjustment of Status.

In FY 2011 the Department of Labor certified 31,273 job offers for Indian nationals. Each year after that, there were 30,278, 20,930, 35,092, 45,670, and 48,939 through the 3^rd quarter of FY 2016 (June 30, 2016). This is a total of 212,182 labor certifications approved for just Indians since October 2010. In recent years, approximately 50% of all labor certification approvals were for positions requiring an Advanced Degree. This percentage is likely higher for Indians and does not take into account positions requiring a Bachelor’s degree plus 5 years of progressive experience which also can be considered as Advanced Degrees for purposes of the EB-2 Preference Category. Let’s assume that 50% of the 212,182 labor certifications approved for Indians are Advanced Degree petitions. That is potentially 106,091 EB-2 applicants with priority dates after May 2010.

Of the 140,000 green cards that are available for employment-based applicants each year, only 28.6% are allocated to the EB-2 category, or 40,040. However, this number is further divided by the per country cap which says that no more than 7% of the visas may be issued to natives of any one country in a fiscal year. That leaves Indians in the EB-2 category with approximately 2,802 green cards to be issued each year.

But remember, the approximately 106,091 EB-2 applicants we calculated does not include their family members. Let’s assume that each of these workers with an approved EB-2 labor certification is married. That comes out to 212,182 potential applicants waiting to file an adjustment of status since October 2010. But don’t forget, USCIS has 19,040 applicants currently in line for a total of 231,222 possible Indians needing EB-2 green cards. That means someone with a job offer today, may have 231,222 people ahead of them in line.

So, how long might that take? Remember, there are only 2,802 that can be granted each year. To grant green cards to all 231,222 potential Indian applicants in the pipeline, it could take 82.5 years.

There are other factors that come into play. For example, while EB-2 is limited to 28.6% of the 140,000 employment-based green cards, unused numbers from the family-sponsored preferences are added to the available employment-based numbers. In FY 2014, that was about 10,000 additional green cards. The previous four years saw 18,000, 4,900, zero, and 10,000 family-based green cards spill over. That averages to about 8,500 a year, so EB-2 may actually be able to use closer to 42,000 a year. Further, any numbers not used up by the EB-1 category trickle down to the EB-2 category. Since Fiscal Year 2007, on average, 55,415 green cards were allocated to the EB-2 category each year.

If this were to continue, and if these extra 15,375 EB-2 green cards were allocated solely to Indian nationals each year, in addition to the 2,802 specifically allocated under the per country cap, the wait time could be reduced to only 12.7 years. However, the number of unused EB-1 green cards available for trickle down has declined drastically since late 2013. This is a result of larger numbers of typical EB-2 applicants opting for EB-1 to avoid the long wait.  At the same time the number of labor certification approvals for Indian applicants has consistently increased since 2013. There is also a phenomena of EB-3 applicants in the pipeline upgrading to the EB-2 category after completing a higher degree or sufficient qualifying experience. These individuals jump ahead in line by retaining the earlier EB-3 priority date and applying it to the EB-2 category. It is unknown how many such instances occur each year, but it will likely continue due to the even longer wait associated with the EB-3 category.

Based on these factors, the number of extra green cards that may be available to EB-2 Indians will likely remain low in the coming years, and the true wait will fall somewhere between 12 and 82 years for those who have not yet begun.

What can be done to clear this mess?

1. Allow recapture of green cards that were not used up in previous years
2. Stop counting dependents as workers. Currently, spouses and children take up half of the green cards allocated to employment-based immigrants
3. Get congress to act on eliminating the per country cap (like H.R. 213)
4. Get congress to act on exempting selected categories from the cap, such as US STEM degree graduates
5. Get congress to act on reallocating the percentage of green cards available in each category (i.e. provide a larger percentage of the available green cards to EB-1 and EB-2)
6. Get congress to raise the cap above 140,000 (highly unlikely)

[solman]

http://immigrationgirl.com/what-is-the-real-wait-time-for-eb-2-india-82-5-years/

[ronitreddy]

kothadi cheppochu kada bro

[solman]

And, before someone posts a sarcastic comment about lawyers wanting it to stay the way it is so they can keep getting fees for filing H-1B extensions, I’m not one of them. I want to see my clients get a green card and become citizens, and the faster they get what they want, the more clients I can help. So, NO, I don’t make more fees by extending H-1Bs. I make more fees by helping more people and I think that is OK.

 

~ImmigrationGirl

[solman]

2 minutes ago, ronitreddy said:

kothadi cheppochu kada bro

2 minutes ago, solman said:

And, before someone posts a sarcastic comment about lawyers wanting it to stay the way it is so they can keep getting fees for filing H-1B extensions, I’m not one of them. I want to see my clients get a green card and become citizens, and the faster they get what they want, the more clients I can help. So, NO, I don’t make more fees by extending H-1Bs. I make more fees by helping more people and I think that is OK.

 

~ImmigrationGirl

 

[Quickgun_murugan]

9 minutes ago, solman said:

And, before someone posts a sarcastic comment about lawyers wanting it to stay the way it is so they can keep getting fees for filing H-1B extensions, I’m not one of them. I want to see my clients get a green card and become citizens, and the faster they get what they want, the more clients I can help. So, NO, I don’t make more fees by extending H-1Bs. I make more fees by helping more people and I think that is OK.

 

~ImmigrationGirl

lol.. hypocritical statement

[Dhaya]

11 minutes ago, solman said:

And, before someone posts a sarcastic comment about lawyers wanting it to stay the way it is so they can keep getting fees for filing H-1B extensions, I’m not one of them. I want to see my clients get a green card and become citizens, and the faster they get what they want, the more clients I can help. So, NO, I don’t make more fees by extending H-1Bs. I make more fees by helping more people and I think that is OK.

 

~ImmigrationGirl

Thats why her company involved ITServe lobbying

[Dhaya]

12 minutes ago, solman said:

And, before someone posts a sarcastic comment about lawyers wanting it to stay the way it is so they can keep getting fees for filing H-1B extensions, I’m not one of them. I want to see my clients get a green card and become citizens, and the faster they get what they want, the more clients I can help. So, NO, I don’t make more fees by extending H-1Bs. I make more fees by helping more people and I think that is OK.

 

~ImmigrationGirl

Thats why her company involved ITServe lobbying to help clients (Body shops)

[Quickgun_murugan]

Real wait time for a GC is about 8 to 12 years.. which is not bad

[acuman]

12 minutes ago, solman said:

And, before someone posts a sarcastic comment about lawyers wanting it to stay the way it is so they can keep getting fees for filing H-1B extensions, I’m not one of them. I want to see my clients get a green card and become citizens, and the faster they get what they want, the more clients I can help. So, NO, I don’t make more fees by extending H-1Bs. I make more fees by helping more people and I think that is OK.

 

~ImmigrationGirl

"It's like good highly proficient doctor saying I pray everyday to god, all people be healthy and practice good healthy habits not coming to me."

[Quickgun_murugan]

2 minutes ago, Dhaya said:

Thats why her company involved ITServe lobbying to help clients (Body shops)

[xxxxmen]

Lit

[acuman]

37 minutes ago, solman said:

Brammostavam? 

[Quickgun_murugan]

26 minutes ago, acuman said:

"It's like good highly proficient doctor saying I pray everyday to god, all people be healthy and practice good healthy habits not coming to me."