Satta bazaar in Madhya Pradesh bets on BJP getting 246 seats

[Spartan]

BHOPAL: Satta trends in Madhya Pradesh predict a Narendra Modi comeback. Bookies are bullish on BJP, giving 246-249 seats to the saffron party and 76-78 seats to Congress.

Bookies were predicting about 280 seats for NDA prior to the airstrike, with BJP winning over 200 seats. But the mood has changed after Balakot airstrike. The bazaar believes that the airstrike after Pulwama attack has swung voters' sentiment in favour of BJP. Consequently, it has lowered the number of seats for Congress to 72-74 from 100 predicted earlier.

The satta bazaar had come uncannily close to predicting the scoreline in the 2018 assembly election — 116 for Congress and 102-plus for BJP. But Lok Sabha election is a vastly different ball game, and much has changed between the assembly polls and now. It's still early days and the candidate lists are yet to be out, but MP punters are giving 21 of the state’s 29 LS seats to BJP Both Congress and BJP, however, are confident they will get more.

A tracker poll conducted by Times Now and VMR shows that NDA stands to gain 13 seats in the post-Balakot air strike compared to the projections of ruling coalition’s tally in the period before IAF dropped bombs on Jaish-e-Mohammed’s terror camp. Interestingly, while Congress and its allies are projected to suffer losses in the post-Balakot strike period.

Bookies told TOI that satta trends may not reflect the actual situation on the ground, but the market is accepting bets on BJP winning three times as many seats as Congress. "If someone bets on BJP and the party gets less than 246, it will fetch double the amount placed as bet. But if BJP gets 246 seats or more, the bettor gets zero," said a source.

3 betting cases registered every day in state capital

While parties struggle to finalize candidates, the satta market is already on a high.

"Business is good this poll season. Rates may vary once the tickets are finalized, but we expect the trend to remain the same," said a bookie, adding: "We are not accepting bets on NDA or UPA or Third Front as the odds get very complex. It’s just individual party performance."

Satta market runs into hundreds of crores every election. Bets are placed not just over phone, but also on websites and online mobile applications, leaving almost no room for police to track down bookies and bettors. Perhaps, this is why no gang has been busted in state so far for running an election betting racket. At least three cases of betting are registered on average every day in Bhopal. The craze is more for cricket, but in election season, sport takes the back seat.

Officials said busting an online betting racket is a big challenge as gangs keep shifting location. Online betting can be operated even from a moving car, café or from any public place in the city, state or from any other part of the country, said an officer. Bhopal ASP-zone 2 Sanjay Sahu said election bookies generally operate from big cities. "There is no political betting racket in Bhopal, as such, but we do take action when we get information. A dedicated drive is already underway to bust satta rackets. Several gangs have been rounded up in the past 10 days, but they are not related to bets for LS polls," he said.