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Why stocks went down?


pittagoda

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2 minutes ago, Mitron said:

bob mueller edho report submit chesdanata.. andhukena @tacobell fan

I'm no expert but based on what I followed these might be the strong influences -- over to @macha

1) US-China Trade deal

2) Fear of recession 

No matter how much they are painting strong economy this is barely for upcoming elections that want to help re-elect him.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/21/trump-economy-election-1230495

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Just now, tacobell fan said:

I'm no expert but based on what I followed these might be the strong influences -- over to @macha

1) US-China Trade deal

2) Fear of recession 

No matter how much they are painting strong economy this is barely for upcoming elections that want to help re-elect him.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/21/trump-economy-election-1230495

JAN 21 2021 RECESSION START.

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Stock market peaked once, it tried to break that resistance one more time but failed, now it is trying to break that resistance one more time, but failing.

Anyway, interest rates, stock market are related. If feds pay 7% percent interest rate, people move money to fixed income (CD's, bonds, etc). If feds pay 0.25%, people move money to stock markets. Feds has kept low interest for a very long time( say, 8 yrs) to protect Obama. 8 years of low interest rate = 8 yrs of bull run. Then Trump came, gave tax cuts, which artificially increased earnings. Then Fed jacked up interested rates, not so much like the old days. If Fed does not increase interest rates, more money will pour in the stock market, thereby inflating assets (stocks). However, stock market can't go up and up. There comes a point where people exit the market, or when companies can't beat earnings (recall earnings recession of the final years of Obama).

Anyway, Fed has a control over monetary policy (basically, interest rates). The government has a control over fiscal policy (like Upaadhi haami padhakam in India or cash for clunkers or rebuild infra).

If feds don't increase the interest rate, they will loose the power to drop interest rates during the late cycle of recession. So, they have to increase it. However, Trump threatened Feds to not jack up interest rates, right now around 2.5%. So, Fed has not jacked up rates. That does not mean that there is a buying pressure for stocks.

Compare 2006 interest rates with today: 5.25% vs 2.5%  In 2008 Dec, the rate was 0.25%. Feds kept 0.25% rate for 7 years.

 

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26 minutes ago, ekunadam_enkanna said:

Stock market peaked once, it tried to break that resistance one more time but failed, now it is trying to break that resistance one more time, but failing.

Anyway, interest rates, stock market are related. If feds pay 7% percent interest rate, people move money to fixed income (CD's, bonds, etc). If feds pay 0.25%, people move money to stock markets. Feds has kept low interest for a very long time( say, 8 yrs) to protect Obama. 8 years of low interest rate = 8 yrs of bull run. Then Trump came, gave tax cuts, which artificially increased earnings. Then Fed jacked up interested rates, not so much like the old days. If Fed does not increase interest rates, more money will pour in the stock market, thereby inflating assets (stocks). However, stock market can't go up and up. There comes a point where people exit the market, or when companies can't beat earnings (recall earnings recession of the final years of Obama).

Anyway, Fed has a control over monetary policy (basically, interest rates). The government has a control over fiscal policy (like Upaadhi haami padhakam in India or cash for clunkers or rebuild infra).

If feds don't increase the interest rate, they will loose the power to drop interest rates during the late cycle of recession. So, they have to increase it. However, Trump threatened Feds to not jack up interest rates, right now around 2.5%. So, Fed has not jacked up rates. That does not mean that there is a buying pressure for stocks.

Compare 2006 interest rates with today: 5.25% vs 2.5%  In 2008 Dec, the rate was 0.25%. Feds kept 0.25% rate for 7 years.

 

yeah Fed is fake news. lol analysis.

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