2 pc vote swing may affect TDP fortunes

[vatsayana]

https://www.greatandhra.com/politics/andhra-news/2-pc-vote-swing-may-affect-tdp-fortunes-96231

Andhra Pradesh, where simultaneous voting took place in phase one for the 175 Assembly and 25 Lok Sabha seats, has come to occupy a unique political stature in the face of tough adversaries trying to outsmart each other by claiming a wafer-thin vote edge of as little as over 2 per cent.

Like it happened in 2014 in united AP when friends-now-foes TDP and BJP fought together. That's where the puzzle of victory lies.

On Thursday, as the polling went into the night owing to stray objections, EVM malfunction and violence, the polling percentage of nearly 80 per cent, as per initial estimates, only complicated prognostication.

A difference of just above two per cent votes had helped Telugu Desam Party storm to power in the state in 2014, when 78.66 per cent turnout was recorded.

Facing anti-incumbency, the TDP this time faces a resurgent YSR Congress Party (YSRCP). The two parties are contesting all 175 Assembly and 25 Lok Sabha seats on their own.

The TDP, which severed ties with BJP last year, may find it difficult to repeat the 2014 performance, but the party leaders hope of a division of anti-incumbency votes among actor Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena-led alliance, Congress and BJP.

On the other hand, Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSRCP is confident of improving the vote share of 2014. It hopes that Jana Sena-BSP-CPI-CPI-M alliance, Congress and BJP would cut into TDP votes.

In 2014, TDP-BJP combine had polled 46.79 percent votes (TDP 44.61 per cent, BJP 2.18 per cent) and bagged 106 seats (TDP 102 and BJP 4).

The YSR Congress Party had secured 67 seats with 44.58 per cent votes. Thus, there was a difference of just 2.21 per cent votes between the two, but it was enough for TDP to win 35 more Assembly seats and come to power.

The Congress, which drew a blank, polled 2.77 per cent votes while independents won two seats and secured 1.77 per cent votes.

In Lok Sabha polls, TDP-BJP combine with 47.7 per cent votes won 17 (TDP 15, BJP 2) seats while YSRCP secured eight seats with 45.4 per cent votes.

The YSRCP, formed by Jagan in 2011 after quitting Congress, replaced the latter as the key political force in the previous election.

The Congress, which had 40.7 per cent vote share in 2009 slumped to 2.8 per cent as the party drew a blank in both the Lok Sabha and Assembly due to the public anger over bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh that led to creation of Telangana.

[AndhraneedSCS]

there are too many factors that can swing voters. Just listed a few that I can think of. They don't necessarily have to be in that order.

1) Pawan Kalyan: His imapct seem to be different in different districts/constituencies and not sure how it will finally reflect. 

2) BJP: Dont think most people vote for BJP this time and I think most BJP votes got split between TDP/YCP.

3) No Alliance for TDP: In point 2 above, TDP lost BJP votes but then, BJP won 4 out of the 15 or so seats alloted to them in 2014. This time, all seats are contested by TDP so the odds are more for TDP

4) Muslim Votes: Since TDP hates BJP the most at this time, Muslims may favor TDP this time

5)Anti Incumbancy: Any govt will have some anti incumbany after 5 years of ruling. This vote will be split between YCP and JSP but will mostly go to JSP

6)Money Power: TDP was not in power for 10 years prior to 2014 and so there may not be much power for TDP in 2014. 2019 is a different situation

7) YSR Factor/Jagan Jail Sympathy: YSR factor worked very well in 2012 bi elections but then this kind of decreased by 2014 by a bit. This may have decreased further by 2019 as people will start seeing Jagan as a leader and not as a son of YSR eventually

8)CBN Schemes: before 2014, CBN is a development CM and YSR is welfare CM. CBN quickly understood that after he lost in 2014 and this time, he tried to be both Welfare and Development CM. This might shift significant welfare focused voters from YCP to CBN

9)Special Status: everyone knows complete story. Most people think this may favor YCP

10) KCR + Modi: Jagans friendship with KCR and Modi will not go well with AP people. This might help TDP in a way.

11) State Division: This helped TDP as most people thought an experienced CM can help put the state on track for development

 

While I agree a 2% swing can cause a lot of difference, my perspective is that we have to see these elections as a completely different election rather than compare it with 2014.

 

[RGVzoomin]

27 minutes ago, AndhraneedSCS said:

there are too many factors that can swing voters. Just listed a few that I can think of. They don't necessarily have to be in that order.

1) Pawan Kalyan: His imapct seem to be different in different districts/constituencies and not sure how it will finally reflect. 

2) BJP: Dont think most people vote for BJP this time and I think most BJP votes got split between TDP/YCP.

3) No Alliance for TDP: In point 2 above, TDP lost BJP votes but then, BJP won 4 out of the 15 or so seats alloted to them in 2014. This time, all seats are contested by TDP so the odds are more for TDP

4) Muslim Votes: Since TDP hates BJP the most at this time, Muslims may favor TDP this time

5)Anti Incumbancy: Any govt will have some anti incumbany after 5 years of ruling. This vote will be split between YCP and JSP but will mostly go to JSP

6)Money Power: TDP was not in power for 10 years prior to 2014 and so there may not be much power for TDP in 2014. 2019 is a different situation

7) YSR Factor/Jagan Jail Sympathy: YSR factor worked very well in 2012 bi elections but then this kind of decreased by 2014 by a bit. This may have decreased further by 2019 as people will start seeing Jagan as a leader and not as a son of YSR eventually

8)CBN Schemes: before 2014, CBN is a development CM and YSR is welfare CM. CBN quickly understood that after he lost in 2014 and this time, he tried to be both Welfare and Development CM. This might shift significant welfare focused voters from YCP to CBN

9)Special Status: everyone knows complete story. Most people think this may favor YCP

10) KCR + Modi: Jagans friendship with KCR and Modi will not go well with AP people. This might help TDP in a way.

11) State Division: This helped TDP as most people thought an experienced CM can help put the state on track for development

 

While I agree a 2% swing can cause a lot of difference, my perspective is that we have to see these elections as a completely different election rather than compare it with 2014.

 

well said.