Can India Overtake the US and China as the Strongest Economy

[hyperbole]

Listed below are the data points from few indicators to illustrate the situation –

Trade & Industrialization:

• Total exports (2016): India – $260 billion, China - $2.1 trillion [1] [2]
  • apparel: India – $18 billion, China - $175 billion
  • footwear: India – $2.5 billion, China – $51 billion
  • electrical and electronics – India - $8 billion, China - $782 billion
• Number of large companies in Fortune 500 (2017): India has 7, China has 109 [3]

Infrastructure & Facilities:

• High Speed Rails:
  • India – first HSR project (Mumbai-Ahmedabad) started in 2017, to be functional by 2022 covering 500 km
  • China – already has 25,000 km of HSR network, transporting double the volume of passengers than airlines [4]
• Metro Trains:
  • India – 8 cities with total track length of 370 km [5]
  • China – 39 cities with total track length of 3,600 km (Beijing metro alone is 600 km) [6]
• Airports: India has 346, China has 507 (2013 data) [7]
• World’s Top 1000 hospitals: India has 9, China has 84 [8]

Tourism:

• Foreign Tourist arrivals: India – 10 million, China – 60 million [9] [10]
• Tourism revenue: India - $27 billion, China - $114 billion

Education & Innovation:

• World’s Top 500 universities: India has 8, China has 21 [11]
• Adult Literacy: India 74% (2011 data), expected to hit mid-80’s by next census (2021), China - 99% (2010)
• Number of Patents and Trademarks: both India and China are in world’s Top 10 (2016 data) [12]
  • Patents filed by India - 45k, China - 1.3 million
  • Trademarks listed by India - 313k, China - 3.7 million

Rising Income levels:

• 75% of world’s new billionaires are coming from India and China:
  • Since 2010, India is adding one new billionaire every 33 days [13]
  • China is adding one new billionaire every 5 days [14]
• India has world’s third highest number of billionaires and China has world’s largest: [15]
  • Number of billionaires in India - 131, China – 819
• Expanding Middle Class:
  • India - 600 million people, based on the criteria of spending ($2 to $10 per day) [16]
  • Only 24 million people, if based on the criteria of wealth ($13k) [17]
  • China - 500 million by 2022, based on the criteria of earning ($9k to 34k) [18]
• GDP Per Capita: India – $1.7k, China - $8.1k [19]

Overall Economy: [20]

• Forex reserves: India - $400 billion, China - $3 trillion
• GDP (nominal): India - $2.5 trillion, China - $11 trillion
•  
• Key Take-Aways and Summary:
• China’s exports of only electricals and electronics ($782 billion) are three times of India’s total exports ($260 billion)
• Length of metro in China’s one city (Beijing – 600 km) is more than total length of all metros in India (370 km)
• China’s forex reserves ($3 trillion) are more than India’s total GDP ($2.5 trillion)
• China’s middle class is not only larger, but also richer than India’s middle class – making it a more attractive investment destination
• India’s growth story is real, but China’s growth story is much bigger. On most economic indicators, India has been performing good, but China has been performing a lot better

[Sanathnagar_Satthi]

51 minutes ago, macha said:

China is on verge of population collapse/crisis in next 20-30 years 

Chance aithe undi

[bezawadalion]

Next 50 years lo ayyitha very less likely. Inka people integration aa jaraga ledhu India lo, too many structural problems. No hope

[Spartan]

2050 ranking..

China

India

US.

 

 

the current 10 ten list will not be in top 15, uk, spain, germany etc will collapse.

https://www.valuewalk.com/2019/01/top-10-largest-economies-2050-china/

[Spartan]

10- United Kingdom ($5.369 trillion)

The UK is currently the world’s fifth largest economy, but it will slip down to 10th place in the next 32 years. It will still be doing much better than France, which is estimated to slip down to 12th place. The PwC expects Brexit to affect the UK economy in the short-term but remains bullish over the long run, thanks to its steady economic growth and growing working population.

9- Germany ($6.138 trillion)

Currently, Germany is the fourth largest economy only behind the US, China, and Japan. It will slip down to 9th place as emerging countries such as India, Indonesia, and Brazil overtake it. The country’s economic growth is expected to slow down in the coming decades as the working-age population declines. The massive influx of immigrants in the last few years is not going to help much.

8- Japan ($6.779 trillion)

Just a few decades ago, economists thought Japan was going to overtake the United States. Japan remains a technological and economic powerhouse but the declining working-age population has hampered its economic growth. In fact, PwC predicts Japan will witness the slowest growth of all the 32 largest economies through 2050. Its population is also expected to decline 0.5% per year on average. Maybe the Japanese government would offer its people incentives to have more children.

7- Mexico ($6.863 trillion)

Mexico will continue to grow at a healthy rate over the next 3-4 decades to become one of the world’s top 10 largest economies. The current Mexican government has launched a series of economic reforms to strengthen the country’s economy. President Donald Trump’s wall is unlikely to hamper Mexico’s economic progress.

6- Russia ($7.131 trillion)

Russia has a powerful military but its economy currently doesn’t rank in the top 10. PwC predicts Moscow will continue to make progress and become the 6th largest economy by 2050. Russia already has the institutions, infrastructure, leadership, and natural resources to support its growth in the long run. However, the country’s declining population could hold it back.

5- Brazil ($7.540 trillion)

The Brazilian economy is not going to witness the same pace of growth as India, Indonesia, or Mexico. But it will continue to grow steadily and become the 5th largest economy by 2050 from the current 9th spot. Despite a higher GDP, its per capita income is expected to decline slightly in the coming years as the population continues to go up. The country has struggled with high inflation rates in the past.

4- Indonesia ($10.502 trillion)

Indonesia will see explosive growth in the coming years – pushing developed nations such as the UK, Germany, and Japan out of the top five. The Southeast Asian nation has managed to dramatically reduce poverty and unemployment in the last few decades. Its population is expected to balloon from the current 240 million to 321 million by 2050.

3- United States ($34.102 trillion)

The United States is currently the world’s largest economy, with China close behind. In about 32 years, it will slip down to third place. Its relatively slow GDP and population growth means it won’t be able to keep up with populous countries such as China and India. The country has a well-developed infrastructure, technological prowess, and education system to support its growth.

2- India ($44.128 trillion)

India is currently the world’s second most populous country and 7th largest economy. By 2050, its population is expected to rise to 1.6 billion people and its GDP based on PPP is projected to reach $44.128 trillion. According to PwC, India will have the highest GDP growth rate in dollar terms over the next three decades, thanks to the growing working-age population, improving infrastructure, and manufacturing.

1- China ($58.499 trillion)

By 2050, China will not only have overtaken the US but its economy will be much, much bigger than the US. According to the PwC report, its GDP will stand at around $58.5 trillion compared to the US’ $34.1 trillion. The Asian giant will account for 20% of the world’s economy, higher than India at 15% and the US at 12%. It will have an aging population and it won’t be able to enjoy the same pace of growth as it has in the last four decades. Even though China and India will get bigger than the US by 2050, their per capita GDP will still be lower than the US due to higher population.

PwC’s predictions are interesting. But a country won’t be able to achieve economic success without strong institutions and well-developed infrastructure. Many emerging countries still don’t have the institutions and infrastructure needed to realize their long-term growth potential. It’s worth pointing out that 2050 is still far away. Whether these predictions materialize will depend on a variety of factors.

[Meow]

Just now, Spartan said:

10- United Kingdom ($5.369 trillion)

The UK is currently the world’s fifth largest economy, but it will slip down to 10th place in the next 32 years. It will still be doing much better than France, which is estimated to slip down to 12th place. The PwC expects Brexit to affect the UK economy in the short-term but remains bullish over the long run, thanks to its steady economic growth and growing working population.

9- Germany ($6.138 trillion)

Currently, Germany is the fourth largest economy only behind the US, China, and Japan. It will slip down to 9th place as emerging countries such as India, Indonesia, and Brazil overtake it. The country’s economic growth is expected to slow down in the coming decades as the working-age population declines. The massive influx of immigrants in the last few years is not going to help much.

8- Japan ($6.779 trillion)

Just a few decades ago, economists thought Japan was going to overtake the United States. Japan remains a technological and economic powerhouse but the declining working-age population has hampered its economic growth. In fact, PwC predicts Japan will witness the slowest growth of all the 32 largest economies through 2050. Its population is also expected to decline 0.5% per year on average. Maybe the Japanese government would offer its people incentives to have more children.

7- Mexico ($6.863 trillion)

Mexico will continue to grow at a healthy rate over the next 3-4 decades to become one of the world’s top 10 largest economies. The current Mexican government has launched a series of economic reforms to strengthen the country’s economy. President Donald Trump’s wall is unlikely to hamper Mexico’s economic progress.

6- Russia ($7.131 trillion)

Russia has a powerful military but its economy currently doesn’t rank in the top 10. PwC predicts Moscow will continue to make progress and become the 6th largest economy by 2050. Russia already has the institutions, infrastructure, leadership, and natural resources to support its growth in the long run. However, the country’s declining population could hold it back.

5- Brazil ($7.540 trillion)

The Brazilian economy is not going to witness the same pace of growth as India, Indonesia, or Mexico. But it will continue to grow steadily and become the 5th largest economy by 2050 from the current 9th spot. Despite a higher GDP, its per capita income is expected to decline slightly in the coming years as the population continues to go up. The country has struggled with high inflation rates in the past.

4- Indonesia ($10.502 trillion)

Indonesia will see explosive growth in the coming years – pushing developed nations such as the UK, Germany, and Japan out of the top five. The Southeast Asian nation has managed to dramatically reduce poverty and unemployment in the last few decades. Its population is expected to balloon from the current 240 million to 321 million by 2050.

3- United States ($34.102 trillion)

The United States is currently the world’s largest economy, with China close behind. In about 32 years, it will slip down to third place. Its relatively slow GDP and population growth means it won’t be able to keep up with populous countries such as China and India. The country has a well-developed infrastructure, technological prowess, and education system to support its growth.

2- India ($44.128 trillion)

India is currently the world’s second most populous country and 7th largest economy. By 2050, its population is expected to rise to 1.6 billion people and its GDP based on PPP is projected to reach $44.128 trillion. According to PwC, India will have the highest GDP growth rate in dollar terms over the next three decades, thanks to the growing working-age population, improving infrastructure, and manufacturing.

1- China ($58.499 trillion)

By 2050, China will not only have overtaken the US but its economy will be much, much bigger than the US. According to the PwC report, its GDP will stand at around $58.5 trillion compared to the US’ $34.1 trillion. The Asian giant will account for 20% of the world’s economy, higher than India at 15% and the US at 12%. It will have an aging population and it won’t be able to enjoy the same pace of growth as it has in the last four decades. Even though China and India will get bigger than the US by 2050, their per capita GDP will still be lower than the US due to higher population.

PwC’s predictions are interesting. But a country won’t be able to achieve economic success without strong institutions and well-developed infrastructure. Many emerging countries still don’t have the institutions and infrastructure needed to realize their long-term growth potential. It’s worth pointing out that 2050 is still far away. Whether these predictions materialize will depend on a variety of factors.

Cntrl C + Cntrl V

[Spartan]

Just now, Meow said:

Cntrl C + Cntrl V

https://www.valuewalk.com/2019/01/top-10-largest-economies-2050-china/

[Hydrockers]

1 hour ago, hyperbole said:

Listed below are the data points from few indicators to illustrate the situation –

Trade & Industrialization:

• Total exports (2016): India – $260 billion, China - $2.1 trillion [1] [2]
  • apparel: India – $18 billion, China - $175 billion
  • footwear: India – $2.5 billion, China – $51 billion
  • electrical and electronics – India - $8 billion, China - $782 billion
• Number of large companies in Fortune 500 (2017): India has 7, China has 109 [3]

Infrastructure & Facilities:

• High Speed Rails:
  • India – first HSR project (Mumbai-Ahmedabad) started in 2017, to be functional by 2022 covering 500 km
  • China – already has 25,000 km of HSR network, transporting double the volume of passengers than airlines [4]
• Metro Trains:
  • India – 8 cities with total track length of 370 km [5]
  • China – 39 cities with total track length of 3,600 km (Beijing metro alone is 600 km) [6]
• Airports: India has 346, China has 507 (2013 data) [7]
• World’s Top 1000 hospitals: India has 9, China has 84 [8]

Tourism:

• Foreign Tourist arrivals: India – 10 million, China – 60 million [9] [10]
• Tourism revenue: India - $27 billion, China - $114 billion

Education & Innovation:

• World’s Top 500 universities: India has 8, China has 21 [11]
• Adult Literacy: India 74% (2011 data), expected to hit mid-80’s by next census (2021), China - 99% (2010)
• Number of Patents and Trademarks: both India and China are in world’s Top 10 (2016 data) [12]
  • Patents filed by India - 45k, China - 1.3 million
  • Trademarks listed by India - 313k, China - 3.7 million

Rising Income levels:

• 75% of world’s new billionaires are coming from India and China:
  • Since 2010, India is adding one new billionaire every 33 days [13]
  • China is adding one new billionaire every 5 days [14]
• India has world’s third highest number of billionaires and China has world’s largest: [15]
  • Number of billionaires in India - 131, China – 819
• Expanding Middle Class:
  • India - 600 million people, based on the criteria of spending ($2 to $10 per day) [16]
  • Only 24 million people, if based on the criteria of wealth ($13k) [17]
  • China - 500 million by 2022, based on the criteria of earning ($9k to 34k) [18]
• GDP Per Capita: India – $1.7k, China - $8.1k [19]

Overall Economy: [20]

• Forex reserves: India - $400 billion, China - $3 trillion
• GDP (nominal): India - $2.5 trillion, China - $11 trillion
•  
• Key Take-Aways and Summary:
• China’s exports of only electricals and electronics ($782 billion) are three times of India’s total exports ($260 billion)
• Length of metro in China’s one city (Beijing – 600 km) is more than total length of all metros in India (370 km)
• China’s forex reserves ($3 trillion) are more than India’s total GDP ($2.5 trillion)
• China’s middle class is not only larger, but also richer than India’s middle class – making it a more attractive investment destination
• India’s growth story is real, but China’s growth story is much bigger. On most economic indicators, India has been performing good, but China has been performing a lot better

Baa antha details avasaramaa

Forex reserves: India - $400 billion, China - $3 trillio

ee okkati chalu