Andhra Politics Future Yenti?

[prasadr]

Recently had a frank discussion with few people regarding Andhra Politics,

Lot of interesting observations, wanted to share with you.

 

Some basic facts ->

1. Caste rules in Andhra.

2. Muslims + Christians are firmly in Jagan's corner.

3. Brahmins are completely devoid of political power.

These are the 3 facts we agreed up on, the third one regarding Brahmins was a surprise but we went to 2014 elections & under TDP + Alliance, not a single Brahmin was in play. Hard to believe but that was a fact.

 

Jagan firmly has Reddy + Christian + Muslim votes firmly in his favor

Naidu has Kammas + Chowdharies in his favor

 

That leaves SC, ST, Kapus & BC.

 

in 2019 elections BC were one of the biggest factors in Jagan getting that landslide. Literally it was the BC that destroyed Naidu. Kapus vote splitting cost Naidu dear as well.

 

Some observations at this point ->

1. Base vote % of Jagan right now is much higher than base vote % of Naidu. This is due to ever increasing number of Christian converts cutting across caste lines. This number is going to increase multifold under Jagan in next 5 years. Meaning in 2024, Jagan would start off with even a bigger % guaranteed vote base than in 2019.

2. Naidu & TDP is a spent force. On his own, TDP is never making a come back in Andhra. 

3. Caste politics will not help any party win in Andhra against Jagan, since he has Caste + Religion working for him.

4. BJP is NOT projected to be a major force by 2024, no matter how much they shout.

5. BJP is also done with Naidu. May not be with TDP but BJP is never going to allow Naidu back into NDA.

 

What this means ->

Jagan is playing a very clever game.

He is overtly being supported by Christians and Muslims. These 2 groups are going to the rock for Jagan. TDP and BJP has no chance in hell in pulling these 2 groups to their side.

The religion consolidation has already happened in Andhra. No one wants to say it out aloud since it's not "nice" to point at the so called secular vote consolidation.

So, at this point, any opposition to Jagan at Caste level would NEVER WORK.

 

So, how does TDP come back ->

1. Hindu consolidation. Make peace with all castes, including Reddy's. There are literally thousands of Reddy's like me who would love to shaft Jagan but can't bear to look at the Bolli Naidu.

2. Make peace with BJP. I have lot of respect for TDP cadre but TDP cadre is completely inept at playing the game for Hindu consolidation. BJP can & they have in many states.

3. To make peace with BJP, Naidu must go. May be project his son (useless guy) or get some one else....but as long as Naidu is there, this will never happen. Heck, Modi did not even acknowledge birthday wishes from Naidu.

4. BJP needs to make peace with TDP as well. Amit Shah needs to climb down and understand the ground realities and start process of accepting overtures from TDP.

5. Identify core issues, like religious conversion, converted Christians enjoying SC/OBC benefits and Hindu temples being run or employing non-Hindus.

6. Last but not least, empower Brahmins. May not seem much but they are like 8-10% of AP and that would increase base % of TDP or BJP by that much % immediately.

 

There literally is no calculation that brings TDP or BJP winning on their own.

 

Making peace and Hindu consolidation is the only way forward to win against the Christian + Muslim + Reddy dominance of Jagan.

[kothavani]

Inko 4 years andaru musukoni kurchoni undadam better 

[Android_Halwa]

5 minutes ago, prasadr said:

2. Make peace with BJP. I have lot of respect for TDP cadre but TDP cadre is completely inept at playing the game for Hindu consolidation. BJP can & they have in many states.

3. To make peace with BJP, Naidu must go. May be project his son (useless guy) or get some one else....but as long as Naidu is there, this will never happen. Heck, Modi did not even acknowledge birthday wishes from Naidu.

This is what it is going to happen. TDP will eventually toe the line and make peace with BJP again. I don't think TDP without Lokesh will be acceptable to many leaders as long as CBN is active but at least for the sake of elections, Lokesh will be kept aside. 

CBN and his Janata batch of 1996 is not at all acceptable to Sangh/RSS/BJP. Compulsions made BJP to go with TDP earlier but things have reversed now and its compulsion for TDP to be back to BJP's fold. TDP may even give away 50% of the seats to BJP and 51% of MP seats to BJP to contest in coalition with BJP.  

[Migilindi23]

 

9 minutes ago, prasadr said:

Recently had a frank discussion with few people regarding Andhra Politics,

Lot of interesting observations, wanted to share with you.

 

Some basic facts ->

1. Caste rules in Andhra.

2. Muslims + Christians are firmly in Jagan's corner.

3. Brahmins are completely devoid of political power.

These are the 3 facts we agreed up on, the third one regarding Brahmins was a surprise but we went to 2014 elections & under TDP + Alliance, not a single Brahmin was in play. Hard to believe but that was a fact.

 

Jagan firmly has Reddy + Christian + Muslim votes firmly in his favor

Naidu has Kammas + Chowdharies in his favor

 

That leaves SC, ST, Kapus & BC.

 

in 2019 elections BC were one of the biggest factors in Jagan getting that landslide. Literally it was the BC that destroyed Naidu. Kapus vote splitting cost Naidu dear as well.

 

Some observations at this point ->

1. Base vote % of Jagan right now is much higher than base vote % of Naidu. This is due to ever increasing number of Christian converts cutting across caste lines. This number is going to increase multifold under Jagan in next 5 years. Meaning in 2024, Jagan would start off with even a bigger % guaranteed vote base than in 2019.

2. Naidu & TDP is a spent force. On his own, TDP is never making a come back in Andhra. 

3. Caste politics will not help any party win in Andhra against Jagan, since he has Caste + Religion working for him.

4. BJP is NOT projected to be a major force by 2024, no matter how much they shout.

5. BJP is also done with Naidu. May not be with TDP but BJP is never going to allow Naidu back into NDA.

 

What this means ->

Jagan is playing a very clever game.

He is overtly being supported by Christians and Muslims. These 2 groups are going to the rock for Jagan. TDP and BJP has no chance in hell in pulling these 2 groups to their side.

The religion consolidation has already happened in Andhra. No one wants to say it out aloud since it's not "nice" to point at the so called secular vote consolidation.

So, at this point, any opposition to Jagan at Caste level would NEVER WORK.

 

So, how does TDP come back ->

1. Hindu consolidation. Make peace with all castes, including Reddy's. There are literally thousands of Reddy's like me who would love to shaft Jagan but can't bear to look at the Bolli Naidu.

2. Make peace with BJP. I have lot of respect for TDP cadre but TDP cadre is completely inept at playing the game for Hindu consolidation. BJP can & they have in many states.

3. To make peace with BJP, Naidu must go. May be project his son (useless guy) or get some one else....but as long as Naidu is there, this will never happen. Heck, Modi did not even acknowledge birthday wishes from Naidu.

4. BJP needs to make peace with TDP as well. Amit Shah needs to climb down and understand the ground realities and start process of accepting overtures from TDP.

5. Identify core issues, like religious conversion, converted Christians enjoying SC/OBC benefits and Hindu temples being run or employing non-Hindus.

6. Last but not least, empower Brahmins. May not seem much but they are like 8-10% of AP and that would increase base % of TDP or BJP by that much % immediately.

 

There literally is no calculation that brings TDP or BJP winning on their own.

 

Making peace and Hindu consolidation is the only way forward to win against the Christian + Muslim + Reddy dominance of Jagan.

Entanta idi

[Hydrockers]

Ok

[Migilindi23]

2 minutes ago, Android_Halwa said:

This is what it is going to happen. TDP will eventually toe the line and make peace with BJP again. I don't think TDP without Lokesh will be acceptable to many leaders as long as CBN is active but at least for the sake of elections, Lokesh will be kept aside. 

CBN and his Janata batch of 1996 is not at all acceptable to Sangh/RSS/BJP. Compulsions made BJP to go with TDP earlier but things have reversed now and its compulsion for TDP to be back to BJP's fold. TDP may even give away 50% of the seats to BJP and 51% of MP seats to BJP to contest in coalition with BJP.  

1996 bjp is different from bodi’s bjp.

Who are you? I’m proud husband, I’m proud father, I’m proud grandfather. Not easily forgettable. 

[Android_Halwa]

Coming to caste equations, Jagan mastered this art. 

2019 elections were a testament for YCP's caste engineering. Although tilted towards Reddy's and there is no doubt, but seat distribution has been carefully undertaken on the basis of caste equations. 

To unseat Jagan, other parties must at least 70 seats from the present tally which seems tougher task at the moment but with growing hostility and incumbancy in 4th and 5th year, may be 40-50 seats is maximum number Jagan can afford to loose and still run the show. 

The big question, Will CBN and Co. able to manage another 100 seats ? If so, which region and how are the caste equations going to work in favor ?

Christians, Muslims and Brahmins have voted to YCP , Majority of diversified Kapu voted for YCP, majority of SC,ST's and a major share of BC voters have gone to YCP as well...

Will money and media power of the Kammas be an asset to TDP in the days to come too ? I don't think so as money power of Kamams will come down drasticaly and political influence too. 

 

[JambaKrantu]

One thing I know for sure is that the era of CBN and TDP has ended.

We need a new alternative in the state to challenge Jagan but I am not sure who that alternative is.. 

[futureofandhra]

2 minutes ago, JambaKrantu said:

One thing I know for sure is that the era of CBN and TDP has ended.

We need a new alternative in the state to challenge Jagan but I am not sure who that alternative is.. 

R u sure about this?!

[Android_Halwa]

Unless and until Jagan does blunders like CBN, very tough to unseat him for now.

TDP is now facing leadership crisis. TDP cannot afford to go to elections with present leadership. Any change in leadership will trigger rebels to loud their voice. In fact no regional party has ever had a smooth transition of leadership. 

No, You cannot expect Lokesh to taken to sitting CM Jagan and this is not an option. Old school tactics like vote split and caste engineering, YCP has mastered the act and padayatras and all other stuff will not work. 

if Lokesh or CBN does Padayatra, it will become more advantage to Jagan but not to CBN.

[JambaKrantu]

2 minutes ago, futureofandhra said:

R u sure about this?!

100%

[Android_Halwa]

And most importantly, I see Jagan to be a vengeance fellow.

I see him to be bit matured than he was in 2014, his vengeance seems not to have matured. 

All these polavaram re-tenders, enquiries and demolitions, etc is nothing but a soft version of witch hunting, the hard version has not started yet...

[Tyler_durden]

20 minutes ago, prasadr said:

Recently had a frank discussion with few people regarding Andhra Politics,

Lot of interesting observations, wanted to share with you.

 

Some basic facts ->

1. Caste rules in Andhra.

2. Muslims + Christians are firmly in Jagan's corner.

3. Brahmins are completely devoid of political power.

These are the 3 facts we agreed up on, the third one regarding Brahmins was a surprise but we went to 2014 elections & under TDP + Alliance, not a single Brahmin was in play. Hard to believe but that was a fact.

 

Jagan firmly has Reddy + Christian + Muslim votes firmly in his favor

Naidu has Kammas + Chowdharies in his favor

 

That leaves SC, ST, Kapus & BC.

 

in 2019 elections BC were one of the biggest factors in Jagan getting that landslide. Literally it was the BC that destroyed Naidu. Kapus vote splitting cost Naidu dear as well.

 

Some observations at this point ->

1. Base vote % of Jagan right now is much higher than base vote % of Naidu. This is due to ever increasing number of Christian converts cutting across caste lines. This number is going to increase multifold under Jagan in next 5 years. Meaning in 2024, Jagan would start off with even a bigger % guaranteed vote base than in 2019.

2. Naidu & TDP is a spent force. On his own, TDP is never making a come back in Andhra. 

3. Caste politics will not help any party win in Andhra against Jagan, since he has Caste + Religion working for him.

4. BJP is NOT projected to be a major force by 2024, no matter how much they shout.

5. BJP is also done with Naidu. May not be with TDP but BJP is never going to allow Naidu back into NDA.

 

What this means ->

Jagan is playing a very clever game.

He is overtly being supported by Christians and Muslims. These 2 groups are going to the rock for Jagan. TDP and BJP has no chance in hell in pulling these 2 groups to their side.

The religion consolidation has already happened in Andhra. No one wants to say it out aloud since it's not "nice" to point at the so called secular vote consolidation.

So, at this point, any opposition to Jagan at Caste level would NEVER WORK.

 

So, how does TDP come back ->

1. Hindu consolidation. Make peace with all castes, including Reddy's. There are literally thousands of Reddy's like me who would love to shaft Jagan but can't bear to look at the Bolli Naidu.

2. Make peace with BJP. I have lot of respect for TDP cadre but TDP cadre is completely inept at playing the game for Hindu consolidation. BJP can & they have in many states.

3. To make peace with BJP, Naidu must go. May be project his son (useless guy) or get some one else....but as long as Naidu is there, this will never happen. Heck, Modi did not even acknowledge birthday wishes from Naidu.

4. BJP needs to make peace with TDP as well. Amit Shah needs to climb down and understand the ground realities and start process of accepting overtures from TDP.

5. Identify core issues, like religious conversion, converted Christians enjoying SC/OBC benefits and Hindu temples being run or employing non-Hindus.

6. Last but not least, empower Brahmins. May not seem much but they are like 8-10% of AP and that would increase base % of TDP or BJP by that much % immediately.

 

There literally is no calculation that brings TDP or BJP winning on their own.

 

Making peace and Hindu consolidation is the only way forward to win against the Christian + Muslim + Reddy dominance of Jagan.

Good analysis... do something Similar for Telangana and post. 

[WigsandThighs]

@Assam

[Android_Halwa]

Kodela was the speaker, who was supposed to disqualify 23 MLA's who have switched over to YCP. 

And we have seen how things have caught up with Kodela.