Andhra Politics Future Yenti?

[panipoori]

2 hours ago, sepoy said:

2014 lo ilage vesaaru TDP gone case ani...2 months lo scenario change ayyindhi...2018 varuku YCP ke no chance....Prasanth kishore+KCR+Modi Changed the game for Jagan....TDP core votebank is still BC....2009 lo ysr single ga velli 36% voteshare techukunaadu....2019 lo CBN single ya velli 40% techukunaadu....Ippudu elections pedethe YCP ke 40 seats vasthe ekkuva...

 

 

 

 

TDP +Kejirwal + Omar Abdullah + Stalin

[prasadr]

7 hours ago, aakathaai333 said:

Arey pesaadu nee mushti analysis madichi ekkadaina ettukoo basic gaa kaaps ki ap lo vote Bank ekkuva. Vaallu evarikesthe aade CM. 

 

True, Kapus are now swinging.

 

Point is Christians + muslims are NOT swinging. They are pro Jagan.

Everyone is in play for Kapus, including Jagan, Naidu, Pawan or anyone else.

 

But no one is in play for Christians and muslims.

And worse, due to conversions, there are going to be many more christians in 2024 than now, that includes even Kapus.

 

You can't close eyes to the obvious monster staring in face and expect to win.

[panipoori]

4 minutes ago, prasadr said:

 

True, Kapus are now swinging.

 

Point is Christians + muslims are NOT swinging. They are pro Jagan.

Everyone is in play for Kapus, including Jagan, Naidu, Pawan or anyone else.

 

But no one is in play for Christians and muslims.

And worse, due to conversions, there are going to be many more christians in 2024 than now, that includes even Kapus.

 

You can't close eyes to the obvious monster staring in face and expect to win.

What's the population of christians and muslims in AP?

[lovemystate]

1 hour ago, Android_Halwa said:

Induke kaka, reality lo bratakali ani chepedi...lekapothey nijaniki chala dooranga vunte itle, iyala elections pedithe ycp ki 40 kuda raavu ane day dreams vastayi...

odipoi 110 days aitunna inka enduku odipoinamo ardam aitaledu, malla elections pedithe etta gelustaru vaya ?

Yendhira nee reality . Nuvvu oka LANGA gaadivi adhi nee reality. 

[lovemystate]

5 minutes ago, prasadr said:

 

True, Kapus are now swinging.

 

Point is Christians + muslims are NOT swinging. They are pro Jagan.

Everyone is in play for Kapus, including Jagan, Naidu, Pawan or anyone else.

 

But no one is in play for Christians and muslims.

And worse, due to conversions, there are going to be many more christians in 2024 than now, that includes even Kapus.

 

You can't close eyes to the obvious monster staring in face and expect to win.

The obvious monster staring is modi and India. Everything else is a friend of Telugu people relatively speaking .

[prasadr]

11 minutes ago, panipoori said:

What's the population of christians and muslims in AP?

 

No one knows since no one declares because they will lose benefits.

But just go out on a Sunday, even in small towns you will see the true number,

 

I would not be surprised if Christians are between 15-20% in AP.

 

 

[NenuEvaru]

19 hours ago, prasadr said:

Recently had a frank discussion with few people regarding Andhra Politics,

Lot of interesting observations, wanted to share with you.

 

Some basic facts ->

1. Caste rules in Andhra.

2. Muslims + Christians are firmly in Jagan's corner.

3. Brahmins are completely devoid of political power.

These are the 3 facts we agreed up on, the third one regarding Brahmins was a surprise but we went to 2014 elections & under TDP + Alliance, not a single Brahmin was in play. Hard to believe but that was a fact.

 

Jagan firmly has Reddy + Christian + Muslim votes firmly in his favor

Naidu has Kammas + Chowdharies in his favor

 

That leaves SC, ST, Kapus & BC.

 

in 2019 elections BC were one of the biggest factors in Jagan getting that landslide. Literally it was the BC that destroyed Naidu. Kapus vote splitting cost Naidu dear as well.

 

Some observations at this point ->

1. Base vote % of Jagan right now is much higher than base vote % of Naidu. This is due to ever increasing number of Christian converts cutting across caste lines. This number is going to increase multifold under Jagan in next 5 years. Meaning in 2024, Jagan would start off with even a bigger % guaranteed vote base than in 2019.

2. Naidu & TDP is a spent force. On his own, TDP is never making a come back in Andhra. 

3. Caste politics will not help any party win in Andhra against Jagan, since he has Caste + Religion working for him.

4. BJP is NOT projected to be a major force by 2024, no matter how much they shout.

5. BJP is also done with Naidu. May not be with TDP but BJP is never going to allow Naidu back into NDA.

 

What this means ->

Jagan is playing a very clever game.

He is overtly being supported by Christians and Muslims. These 2 groups are going to the rock for Jagan. TDP and BJP has no chance in hell in pulling these 2 groups to their side.

The religion consolidation has already happened in Andhra. No one wants to say it out aloud since it's not "nice" to point at the so called secular vote consolidation.

So, at this point, any opposition to Jagan at Caste level would NEVER WORK.

 

So, how does TDP come back ->

1. Hindu consolidation. Make peace with all castes, including Reddy's. There are literally thousands of Reddy's like me who would love to shaft Jagan but can't bear to look at the Bolli Naidu.

2. Make peace with BJP. I have lot of respect for TDP cadre but TDP cadre is completely inept at playing the game for Hindu consolidation. BJP can & they have in many states.

3. To make peace with BJP, Naidu must go. May be project his son (useless guy) or get some one else....but as long as Naidu is there, this will never happen. Heck, Modi did not even acknowledge birthday wishes from Naidu.

4. BJP needs to make peace with TDP as well. Amit Shah needs to climb down and understand the ground realities and start process of accepting overtures from TDP.

5. Identify core issues, like religious conversion, converted Christians enjoying SC/OBC benefits and Hindu temples being run or employing non-Hindus.

6. Last but not least, empower Brahmins. May not seem much but they are like 8-10% of AP and that would increase base % of TDP or BJP by that much % immediately.

 

There literally is no calculation that brings TDP or BJP winning on their own.

 

Making peace and Hindu consolidation is the only way forward to win against the Christian + Muslim + Reddy dominance of Jagan.

Nice Analysis !!

[panipoori]

3 minutes ago, prasadr said:

 

No one knows since no one declares because they will lose benefits.

But just go out on a Sunday, even in small towns you will see the true number,

 

I would not be surprised if Christians are between 15-20% in AP.

 

 

Sirr ippudu every sunday bayataki poyi lekkette opika ledu.

Wiki lo ayte 8.7% choopistondi..

[prasadr]

32 minutes ago, panipoori said:

Sirr ippudu every sunday bayataki poyi lekkette opika ledu.

Wiki lo ayte 8.7% choopistondi..

 

It's an estimate buddy.

Many don't claim conversion since they lose benefits.

 

We both know this fact, now extrapolate.

[SuryaBhai_itsabrand]

38 minutes ago, prasadr said:

 

It's an estimate buddy.

Many don't claim conversion since they lose benefits.

 

We both know this fact, now extrapolate.

that estimate of 8.7% is incorrect..After YSR became cm from congress, the xtian conversion mafia has become highly active and theres no stopping since then. in every village the converted population has increased multifold and still growing with huge funds coming to them. jagan has a huge votebank of them now and its a growing number.

I anticipated BJP to do something in the last 5 yrs, but somehow they didnt really gave a thought to it. 

[SuryaBhai_itsabrand]

20 hours ago, Android_Halwa said:

Chidambaram lantollane jail la padesinaru....CBN aathu mukka...

I'm sure CBN will taste jail food for sure before the turn of next elections...

Lol Jagan has tasted it for 18months and you want CBN to taste it too...dont think it will happen

[Maradalu]

Prasad bava upma tintava?

[prasadr]

7 hours ago, dasara_bullodu said:

TDP merging with BJP is impossible

The core belief of TDP cadre is that BJP has become commercial and they don't care about social issues anymore and there is a lot of truth behind it... based on Modi's way of politics

It there is any valid merger it will be JSP with TDP and JSP getting most of the top seats in TDP

 

Let me be frank,

There are only 3 parties that fight for issues.

1. Congress - out and out muslim party

2. BJP - leaning towards Hindu party

3. Communists - Want to break India party

 

Every other party, including TDP and Jagan party is there to only win elections.

Even for Jagan, being a Christian is a means to get elected, if finds one day his christian identity will ensure his defeat, he will ditch it.

There is a reason why he still retains his Hindu name.

 

The so called social issues, if parties cared, would have been resolved by now.

 

I can go on in detail on how we lacked basic things like toilets, electricity, gas connections for majority of 70 years BUT it's of no use.

Parties would not even give the very basic needs to people & then preach about so called Social causes.

 

Go to rural areas and talk to families whose ladies used to go behind bushes every morning, then you will understand what social causes are..

[soodhilodaaram]

7 hours ago, dasara_bullodu said:

TDP merging with BJP is impossible

The core belief of TDP cadre is that BJP has become commercial and they don't care about social issues anymore and there is a lot of truth behind it... based on Modi's way of politics

It there is any valid merger it will be JSP with TDP and JSP getting most of the top seats in TDP

Jogi Jogi rasukunte boodide raalindanta..didn't people perceive these 2 parties are same.. hence giving massive win to Jagan
 

TDP made a big mistake by moving away from BJP..no amount of covering can overcome the colossal mistake..if some TDP folks still believe the same nonsense as real..they are living in fool's paradise.. the sooner they come out and ally with BJP.. the faster TDP is going to recover from 2019 loss

[Maradalu]

Just now, soodhilodaaram said:

Jogi Jogi rasukunte boodide raalindanta..didn't people perceive these 2 parties are same.. hence giving massive win to Jagan
 

TDP made a big mistake by moving away from BJP..no amount of covering can overcome the colossal mistake..if some TDP folks still believe the same nonsense as real..they are living in fool's paradise.. the sooner they come out and ally with BJP.. the faster TDP is going to recover from 2019 loss

Soodi bavaaa