Andhra Politics Future Yenti?

[prasadr]

7 minutes ago, soodhilodaaram said:

Jogi Jogi rasukunte boodide raalindanta..didn't people perceive these 2 parties are same.. hence giving massive win to Jagan
 

TDP made a big mistake by moving away from BJP..no amount of covering can overcome the colossal mistake..if some TDP folks still believe the same nonsense as real..they are living in fool's paradise.. the sooner they come out and ally with BJP.. the faster TDP is going to recover from 2019 loss

 

Agreed,

in hind-sight, it becomes clear that even in 2014, if not for the alliance, TDP would have lost to Jagan.

 

The true base % were revealed in 2019 when every party fought on it's own.

Jagan got nearly 50%

TDP is at 39%

 

If TDP is thinking it is going to bridge the 11% gap on it's own, it's a dream that will turn into nightmare for them.

 

To be blunt, AP does not have that many swing voters for TDP to cover 11% gap.

It needs help.

In fact any party going against Jagan will need help, it's a frightening fact, one TDP & BJP will need to realize.

 

As much as I hate Naidu, I have another level of hatred for Jagan.

2019 was about defeating Naidu, 2024 should be about destroying Jagan.

[prasadr]

We continued on this political discussion over the weekend, while consuming few Biryanis, Chicken 65 and couple of bottles of Archie Rose.

 

The reiteration was that TDP on it's own is not in a position to compete against Jagan, ever.

It's the same Gujarat tale between Cong & BJP, where BJP starts off with a massive advantage over Congress being repeated in Andhra. The base vote % advantage that Jagan has is so massive that nothing TDP can do will ever overcome it. Worse, the current TDP leaders are rehashing the same old narrative and strategies. It's this Ostrich syndrome that will decimate TDP. The leadership is not willing to learn, worse, they are even unwilling to acknowledge the changed political paradigm. 

This change is not just limited to Andhra, it is sweeping the whole nation. Weird consolidations are happening all over the world that is shaking the political pundits. Case in point the 2019 elections, the massive USHV (united spectrum of Hindu voters) across India, minus few states gave the system a shock it has not received since independence. This is not sympathy vote of 84. This was basically a churn at the bottom where alliances cutting across caste lines have happened. 

In UP, for example, BJP won as non-jatav Dalits consolidated heavily into over arching Hindu spectrum. In some places Dalits + OBC's are forming the bulwark of Hindu resurgence. Meaning, it's the BC + Dalits that are consolidating into pro-BJP vote bank. Some of the upper castes like Brahmins have lost the will to fight on ground. And some upper castes have just not bothered to fight since they are not affected.

 

Now, what does this mean in Andhra context?

First, except for the dominant Kamma, Kapu and Reddy's, none of the other castes WERE figuring the power structure.

2019 elections, flipped this in massive way. Reason for it is that Christians are now cutting across Castes, there are Reddy Christians, Kamma Christians, Kapu Christians etc etc. This is transforming into a powerful group that is openly pro-Jagan. Nothing Naidu or TDP can do will ever change this groups mind to vote for TDP.

 

ABOVE   IS    THE   CHANGED   POLITICAL   NARRATIVE   IN  ANDHRA.

 

Now coming to Naidu.

This guy has been disastrous for TDP.  The Cadre my not like it but this man has not won elections on his own in 2 decades. 

Worse if his use and throw politics in 2004 & 2019, where he thought he is "THE MAN". He was basically an extortionist masquerading as a leader who repeatedly abused the trust BJP placed him.

Problem for him is that the current BJP is not the same as the one during Atal. The current one has long, unforgiving memories and iron will. Modi & Shah using Naidu have sent an unmistakable message to every other ally who is thinking of doing something similar to them. Look at Shiv Sena and how they have mellowed down and agreeing to lower seats. This is the new reality of BJP & Naidu has utterly failed to capture the mood of the new generation BJP.

Look at Naveen Patnaik, instead of poking Modi like Naidu did on non-existent issues and painting a giant target on himself, he has realized that there is a new species of Alpha in the political Jungle and has made bargain with BJP to be swallowed last. 

Naidu unfortunately has burnt the bridge, swallowed the ashes and shat them out. 

Result of all this moves is that Naidu with his flip flops, U turns and back stabbings has Spent all his political capital & worse is that he has no means to defend himself.

 

THE FUTURE 

I see a lot of bickering on caste lines,

I also see Jagan and other "secular" parties promoting this bickering. 

It serves their purpose to divide Hindus on caste lines. It makes it easier for likes of Jagan, who on back of Christians, muslims and few other social adjustments beating TDP every time.

The counter to this is what BJP did in UP. 

Destroy the Caste narrative. Call out any buffoon who wants to divide Hindus on Caste. More importantly pick up issues that are core Hindu and play above Caste politics.

 

The hints and politics of it means TDP needs to sacrifice Naidu at the altar for TDP + BJP to come back together.

Otherwise, there is no hope.