The risk of nuclear war is growing

[tacobell fan]

As a landmark anti-nuclear treaty turns 50 and Iran goes rogue, the world is in peril.

[tacobell fan]

Iran appears hellbent on getting nukes and could do so within a year

Saudi Arabia and Turkey will almost certainly follow suit

Israel and parts of Asia are already armed

[tacobell fan]

To slow this proliferation of nukes, the world relies mostly on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT, which has 191 signatories.

The next review conference starts in April: Expectations are low, fears are high

[tacobell fan]

The 1960s treaty is a grand bargain:

The countries with nukes (the U.S., Soviet Union, U.K., France and China) keep their nukes but work toward eliminating them.

 

Others forswear nukes in return for help in using nuclear tech as an energy source

 

[tacobell fan]

"When analyzed with game theory, the NPT looks like a terrible idea." By letting all nations gain nuclear tech, it allows them to get one step away from making bombs. The result is a soft arms race

[tacobell fan]

During the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union used game theory to find a strategy for avoiding mutually assured destruction. It rested on assumptions:

 

Both sides must be able to retaliate

Both sides were assumed to be “rational”

[tacobell fan]

The world is now far more complicated and unpredictable:

The number of potential players keeps growing

Many new types of weapons The math quickly gets complex beyond normal human capacities

[tacobell fan]

Game theory offers plenty of reasons to worry, but it also offers a glimmer of hope: In games and reality, players don’t know or can misread the minds of their adversaries. This can be fixed by adding a mediator. Let the search be on for such mediators

[JAPAN]

hmmm...evadu thaggadu

evadi security vaadiki important