Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates

[nightkalalu]

Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates
 

The coronavirus economic freeze could cost 47 million jobs and send the unemployment rate past 32%, according to St. Louis Fed projections.

There are nearly 67 million Americans working in jobs that are at a high risk of layoffs, according to the analysis.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said last week that the initial estimates are grim but the plunge should be short-lived.

 

Million of Americans already have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus crisis and the worst of the damage is yet to come, according to a Federal Reserve estimate.

Economists at the Fed’s St. Louis district project total employment reductions of 47 million, which would translate to a 32.1% unemployment rate, according to a recent analysis of how bad things could get.

The projections are even worse than St. Louis Fed President James Bullard’s much-publicized estimate of 30%. They reflect the high nature of at-risk jobs that ultimately could be lost to a government-induced economic freeze aimed at halting the coronavirus spread. 

“These are very large numbers by historical standards, but this is a rather unique shock that is unlike any other experienced by the U.S. economy in the last 100 years,” St. Louis Fed economist Miquel Faria-e-Castro wrote in a research paper posted last week.

There are a couple of important caveats to what Faria-e-Castro calls “back-of-the-envelope” calculations: They don’t account for workers who may drop out of the labor force, thus bringing down the headline unemployment rate, and they do not estimate the impact of recently passed government stimulus, which will extend unemployment benefits and subsidize companies for not cutting staff and extending unemployment benefits.

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However, the jobless picture already looks bleak.

A record 3.3 million Americans filed initial jobless claims for the week ended March 21. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect another 2.65 million to join them this week. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls count for March is expected to show a decline of just 56,000, but that’s largely due to a statistical distortion because of the sampling period for the count happening before the government implementing social distancing practices.

The central part of Faria-e-Castro’s compilations comes from previous Fed research showing 66.8 million workers in “occupations with high risk of layoff.” They are sales, production, food preparation and services. Other research also identified people 27.3 million people working in “high contact-intensive” jobs such as barbers and stylists, airline attendants, and food and beverage service.

The paper then took an average of those workers and estimated a loss of just over 47 million positions. That would bring the U.S. unemployment rolls to 52.8 million, or more than three times worse than the peak of the Great Recession. The 30% unemployment rate would top the Great Depression peak of 24.9%.

The one potential bright side is the likelihood that the downturn could be comparatively brief.

During a CNBC interview last week, Bullard said the jobless number “will be unparalleled, but don’t get discouraged. This is a special quarter, and once the virus goes away and if we play our cards right and keep everything intact, then everyone will go back to work and everything will be fine.”

[Peter123]

possible

[kevinUsa]

nenu cheppina kada 

All of u laughed at me 

[tacobell fan]

Just now, kevinUsa said:

nenu cheppina kada 

All of u laughed at me 

Bring those who laughed to Justice. 

[kevinUsa]

just need pressing buttons in computer to make money 

unemployment ante endo if people want to know aitay 50Mn avvali I will say wait 

in 2008 crisis  because of these greedy guys China and India lost around similar number of jobs 

may near to that both combined so. 

if these people want to know how ** up this country is we need to have 50mn unemployed it means around 

1 in every 6 Americans is unemployed 

[lovable]

Pichha lite.. America antha gudisipoyina stock market matram Evadu touch cheyledu.. 

[bhaigan]

13 minutes ago, kevinUsa said:

just need pressing buttons in computer to make money 

unemployment ante endo if people want to know aitay 50Mn avvali I will say wait 

in 2008 crisis  because of these greedy guys China and India lost around similar number of jobs 

may near to that both combined so. 

if these people want to know how ** up this country is we need to have 50mn unemployed it means around 

1 in every 6 Americans is unemployed 

2008 crisis appudu India lo jobs loss avvadam endi bro, India did well according to world bank stats in 2008 crisis

nuvvu malli real estate tokka tholu anaku, real estate is something similar to gambling like appreciation and depreciation

[bhaigan]

16 minutes ago, kevinUsa said:

just need pressing buttons in computer to make money 

unemployment ante endo if people want to know aitay 50Mn avvali I will say wait 

in 2008 crisis  because of these greedy guys China and India lost around similar number of jobs 

may near to that both combined so. 

if these people want to know how ** up this country is we need to have 50mn unemployed it means around 

1 in every 6 Americans is unemployed 

dont try to spit venom on vomerica bro, 47 million ante desi community motham wash out ayipothadi US nunchi

[AndhraneedSCS]

34 minutes ago, kevinUsa said:

just need pressing buttons in computer to make money 

unemployment ante endo if people want to know aitay 50Mn avvali I will say wait 

in 2008 crisis  because of these greedy guys China and India lost around similar number of jobs 

may near to that both combined so. 

if these people want to know how ** up this country is we need to have 50mn unemployed it means around 

1 in every 6 Americans is unemployed 

US lo work chesede 155 million people (give or take a few millions) 

 

 

[kevinUsa]

Just now, AndhraneedSCS said:

US lo work chesede 155 million people (give or take a few millions) 

 

 

One in every 3 Americans unemployment

[AndhraneedSCS]

22 million are employed by State and Federal Govts.  No impact on them.