Waiting for green card??? Read this

[veeraveeraleaks]

There is some much discussion going about Spill Over in FY2020(1st Oct 2019 to Sep 30th 2020). 3 recent Events(Public Charge+ Travel Ban, Consulates closure due to Corona + Executive Order on Consular Processing Suspension 60 days which have chances to be extended) all going to give good Spill Over in various ways. You can read my past posts and rather the best place is follow is qesehmk(Qs) blog. For all 3 scenarios there will be gains for all India EB categories but how much ??? 


Note: Dept of State and USCIS follows Oct-Sep Calendar. EB means Employment Based GC almost 140,000 Green Cards and year. FB means Family Based GC almost 860,000 Green Cards an year. ROW means Rest of World(generally high demand countries excluding India/China/Philippines/Mexico). CP means Consular Processing(GC issued in consulates). AOS/485 - Filing for GC in USA when person is in visa. 

The best person on this subject which is Q himself is cautiously optimistic where was I am actually bullish. Why bullish/optimism - that is because I think a major recession is on the way which will have ROW low demand in EB. So even if we take a middle path, its going to good At the same time dont need to be super delighted that the gains will make India EB dates move 3/4 or more years, yes EB1 and EB5 will be exception to have huge swing but per me not EB2/3 in FY2020. 
Most of people who does predictions have given up and no more active, they cant keep educating people every day, becoz every day a newbie will come and point some blog of attorney or his own theory. 

For the LAST TIME I am posting in detail. 

Per March 26th 2020, Congressional Research on Employment-Based Immigration Backlog states below 

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46291 

Till FY2020 140 Aprpoved - EB1-India has 73,482 filers, EB2-India has 568,414 filers and EB3-India has 137,161 filers.

[veeraveeraleaks]

Reality Check on where we stand now and even when huge Spillover (SO) happens 

1) GC Allocation for FY2020 is capped per country cap of 7 PCT, so even 300K Spill Over comes, it first ROW advantaged and if un-used it get to backlogged country. 
2) EB1-India is very much backlogged including ROW. Prior to 2014, Golden days of EB2-India, EB1 was giving good number of SO to EB2 and since low ROW demand EB2-I cleared fast till 2008. 
3) EB2-I is stuck - till all the AOS 485 filers who are in line till May 2010 is cleared, EB2 wont move beyond May 2010. So immediate relief to already AOS/485 filers. 

There are multiple type of spill over. 

a) SO inside EB a) EB5/4 un-used to EB1?EB2?EB3. But since SB1 is blocked, all that SO will be consumed in EB1 first. If at all there is any remaining it will spill to EB2 and then to EB3. 
b) Fall across/Horizontal - SO internally inside each category, E.g EB3- ROW has less demand then most backlogged EB3-I will get most of it. 
c) SO from Family based, most discussion is happing here, people are throwing number 200k, 300k etc,I will explain that with Math below 


FB spill Over is applied PROPORTIONATELY. Lets do Math with real example of last year. Last year EB got, 22k FB SO of FY19 which get adjusted to FY2020. So below is what EB2-India allocation. It dont need very high-skilled brain to have basic knowledge thtat If ROW demand is low we get more SO but as longs ROW is high we dont. That is why Q1 and Q2 EB2-India is moving 2-3 days and stuck in May 2009. 

140K allocation is -- > EB1/2/3 each get 28.6PCT of Total and EB4/5 get 7.2 PCT 

With 22k FB spillover of FY19 to FY2020 for EB, that number get added i.e 140k+22k=162k. 

So EB2 get 46k(instead of 40k) and EB2-India get 7PCT of 46k i.e 3240 which means really India got 440 More GC(3240-2800) and if ROW use it full we just end up only getting 7% in 3240. That is why this year despite SO of 22K from FB, EB2-India is still in May 2009 and moving 2 or 3 days per bulletin. 

Apart from Vertical EB and FB SO, there can fall across/horizontal SO in each category. However this year especially if recession hits and ROW will have lower and hence can have fall across/horizontal SO from of EB2-ROW to EB2.

[veeraveeraleaks]

Kinldy dont go behind Attorneys, in 2018 October/November -Attorney like William told that EB3-India will reach up to PD of 2013/15 as there is just 40k EB3-I I140 approved, I and Ryan had battle fought to prove it was wrong and history has proven these attorneys has no intentions to help backlog they mislead, create confusion and always remain blood suckers of ours. 

Summarizing My view - shorter term especially last Quarter of FY2020 (July-Sep) will see gains. FY2021 will 

EB5-India will have drastic gains. 

EB1-ROW overall will benefit good and along with that EB1-India as well. In EB Spillover/unused GC, EB1 is going to eat the major pie. 

EB2-india is clogged by already fillers who already filed 485 and once that clog of 12/15k till May 2010 is removed, then EB2 will move provide EB2-ROW demand is low. All AOS existing filers in EB2-I will gain. 

EB3-India is probably will be underdog or surprise , its primary stuck a)Number of EB3-India Consular Processing spiked up last 2 years and it 1600 last year, so AOS EB3-India folks didnt got lucky b) because of Attorneys encouraging people to jump between EB2 and EB3 lines and that halted the moves . In short term itself EB3-I AOS will gain as I write Consular Processing number of India is already down by nearly 700 GC and with new EO EB3-I, will gain further. 

Will the Spill Over/Unused Green Card make Indians stuck here a Super jackpot to get GC??? I doubt that but there will good gain. The forum is heavily tracked by anti-Immigrants groups as well Consulting company owners of IT serve, so be careful on excitements, they can lobby and impact us negatively. If Administration wants they can pass on the gains to India EB category or damage taking steps to have the gains vaporized in thin air. Choice is be resilient or scream to make all the birds fly. If we are smart, then quietly coordinate and ask congressional oversight on GC allocation or when we ever there is evidence that GC is under allocated, do a lawsuit for Court to intervene on DOS/USCIS allocation. But as usual, a 2015 guy will think why he should support a 2010 or 2011 guy to get Green Card... 


Signing off, for a while, I do hope people in backlog will be realistic and sensible (dont create noise and get unwanted attention)

[tacobell fan]

2 minutes ago, veeraveeraleaks said:

EB2-India has 568,414

Polavaram Type lo Spill Over aithe tappa ikkada orgasam vache chance ledu

[AndhraneedSCS]

This looks reasonable. 

 

Also, If the pause is only for 60 days, wont they use the Visas for the same category and give more after 60 days?

[tacobell fan]

Just now, AndhraneedSCS said:

This looks reasonable. 

 

Also, If the pause is only for 60 days, wont they use the Visas for the same category and give more after 60 days?

gray hair kuda vachindhi meeru matram change avvatledu ani @Sucker antunnadu AOC ni chusi

[mirchi_bajji]

also i feel there is enough backlog for international spouses and children which are not stopped as per the EO.

[JambaKrantu]

Ee lopale uncles crackers kalchaaru inti mundala.. chepte vintaara..

[Scurvy]

Enduku saar paatha gaayanni malli reputharu antunna GC batta and potta vuncles.

[mirchi_bajji]

5 minutes ago, JambaKrantu said:

Ee lopale uncles crackers kalchaaru inti mundala.. chepte vintaara..

edo chinna chinna anandalu uncles vi....ananda padanee..

asalee recession antunaru...let them atleast hold on to this little ray of hope 

 

[Sucker]

5 minutes ago, JambaKrantu said:

Ee lopale uncles crackers kalchaaru inti mundala.. chepte vintaara..

Lepaku lapaku ani cheppa vinte ga nuv vachi inka petrol posthivi 

[Sucker]

14 minutes ago, tacobell fan said:

gray hair kuda vachindhi meeru matram change avvatledu ani @Sucker antunnadu AOC ni chusi

vuuuuuu

[JambaKrantu]

6 minutes ago, mirchi_bajji said:

edo chinna chinna anandalu uncles vi....ananda padanee..

asalee recession antunaru...let them atleast hold on to this little ray of hope 

[veeraveeraleaks]

2011 varakuHope's. Others go side and play.

naadhi eb3 kabatti extra Hope's .

[JambaKrantu]

5 minutes ago, Sucker said:

Lepaku lapaku ani cheppa vinte ga nuv vachi inka petrol posthivi 

Asal first uncles ki aasalu lepindi nuvvu and aa repo gaadu aa S386 thread ni lepi lepi 😆