COVID scenarios

[nightkalalu]

Scenario 1: Peaks and Valleys 

Epidemiologists say this scenario involves a series of “repetitive smaller waves” which occur consistently over a one to two-year period, with the waves of new infections gradually diminishing over time.
 

“Depending on the height of the wave peaks, this scenario could require periodic reinstitution and subsequent relaxation of mitigation measures over the next 1 to 2 years,” the report says.

Scenario 2: Fall Peak

In this situation, a larger wave of the novel coronavirus in the fall or winter of 2020 follows the spring 2020 outbreak, which will then be followed by “one or more smaller subsequent waves in 2021.”

Mitigation measures will have to be swiftly enacted again in order to prevent the health care system from becoming overwhelmed, according to the report.

Epidemiologists say this pattern is similar to what was observed in the 1918-19 Spanish Flu pandemic, during which the virus subsided in the summer months only to return in a much larger peak in the fall of 1918. A third peak occurred in the winter all through spring of the following year, until eventually subsiding again in the summer of 1919.

Scenario 3: Slow Burn

A “slow burn” of the pandemic would look like a sustained continuation of cases over a long period of time with “no clear wave pattern.” Epidemiologists say this third pattern has not been identified in previous influenza pandemics, but remains a possibility for COVID-19.

“This third scenario likely would not require the reinstitution of mitigation measures, although cases and deaths will continue to occur,” according to the report.

[Assam_Bhayya]

easy bro @nightkalalu nijam kaavu antaru, only early morning kalale nijam avthayi anta, So chill bro.

[Pitta]