NYC IS DEAD FOREVER. HERE'S WHY | 'NYC has never been locked down for five months. Not in any PANDEMIC , WAR , FINANCIAL CRISIS , never. NEVER. | JAMES ALTUCHER

[Curs0r]

NYC is dead forever. People say, "NYC always comes back." Or "NYC has been through worse." No and no.

Business, culture, food, education, quality of life, expenses, are all going in the wrong direction.

I explain why and why it's not coming back. I love NYC. I wish I were wrong. But I'm not. 

 

 

NYC IS DEAD FOREVER. HERE'S WHY

 

I love NYC. When I first moved to NYC it was a dream come true. Every corner was like a theater production happening right

in front of me. So much personality, so many stories. 

Every subculture I loved was in NYC. I could play chess all day and night. I could go to comedy clubs. I could start any type of business.

I could meet people. I had family, friends, opportunities. No matter what happened to me, NYC was a net I could fall back on and bounce back up. 

Now it's completely dead. "But NYC always always bounces back." No. Not this time. "But NYC is the center of the financial universe.

Opportunities will flourish here again." Not this time. 

"NYC has experienced worse". No it hasn't. 

A Facebook group formed a few weeks ago that was for people who were planning a move and wanted others to talk to and ask

advice from. Within two or three days it had about 10,000 members. 

Every day I see more and more posts, "I've been in NYC forever but I guess this time I have to say goodbye." Every single day I see

those posts. I've been screenshotting them for my scrapbook. 

Three of the most important reasons to move to NYC: 

 - business opportunities

 - culture 

 - food

and, of course, friends. But if everything I say below is even 1/10 of what I think then there won't be as many opportunities to make friends. =

A) BUSINESS

Midtown Manhattan, the center of business in NYC, is empty. Even though people can go back to work, famous office buildings like

the Time Life skyscraper is still 90% empty. Businesses realized that they don't need their employees at the office. 

In fact, they realize they are even more productive without everyone back to the office. The Time Life building can handle 8,000 workers.

Now it maybe has 500 workers back. 

(Midtown reopened, but still empty)

"What do you mean?" a friend of mine said to me when I told him 'Midtown should be called 'Ghost Town', "I'm in my office right now!" 

"What are you doing there?" 

"Packing up," he said and laughed, "I'm shutting it down." He works in the entertainment business. 

Another friend of mine works at a major investment bank as a managing director. Before the pandemic he was at the office

every day, sometimes working from 6am to 10pm. 

Now he lives in Phoenix, Arizona. "As of June," he told me, "I had never even been to Phoenix." And then he moved there. He

does all his meetings on Zoom. 

I was talking to a book editor who has been out of the city since early March. "We've been all working fine. I'm not sure why

we would need to go back to the office." 

One friend of mine, Derek Halpern, was convinced he'd stay. He put up a Facebook post the other day saying he might be changing his mind. Derek wrote: 

"In the last week:

* I watched a homeless person lose his mind and start attacking random pedestrians. Including spitting on, throwing stuff at, and swatting.

* Ive seen several single parents with a child asking for money for food. And then, when someone gave them food, tossed the food right back at them.

* I watched a man yell racist slurs at every single race of people while charging / then stopping before going too far.

And worse.

I’ve been living in New York City for about 10 years. It has definitely gotten worse and there’s no end in sight.

My favorite park is Madison Square Park. About a month ago a 19 year old girl was shot and killed across the street.

I don’t think I have an answer but I do think it’s clear: it’s time to move out of NYC.

I’m not the only one who feels this way, either. In my building alone, the rent has plummeted almost 30 percent - more people are moving away than ever before.

So...

It’s not goodbye yet. But a life long New Yorker is thinkng about it."

I pick his post out but I could've picked one of dozens of others.

People say, "NYC has been through worse" or "NYC has always come back." 

No and no. 

First, when has NYC been through worse?

Even in the 1970s, and through the 80s, when NYC was going bankrupt, and even when it was the crime capital of the US or close to it, it was

still the capital of the business world (meaning: it was the primary place young people would go to build wealth and find opportunity), it was

culturally on top of its game - home to artists, theater, media, advertising, publishing, and it was probably the food capital of the US. 

(NYC in the 70s)

NYC has never been locked down for five months. Not in any pandemic, war, financial crisis, never. In the middle of the polio epidemic,

when little kids (including my mother) were going paralyzed or dying (my mother ended up with a bad leg), NYC didn't go through this. 

This is not to say what should have been done or should not have been done. That part is over. Now we have to deal with what IS. 

In early March, many people (not me), left NYC when they felt it would provide safety from the virus and they no longer needed to go

to work and all the restaurants were closed. People figured, "I'll get out for a month or two and then come back." 

They are all still gone. 

And then in June, during rioting and looting a second wave of NYC-ers (this time me) left. I have kids. Nothing was wrong with

the protests but I was a little nervous when I saw videos of rioters after curfew trying to break into my building. 

Many people left temporarily but there were also people leaving permanently. Friends of mine moved to Nashville, Miami, Austin, Denver, Salt Lake City, Austin, Dallas, etc. 

Now a third wave of people are leaving. But they might be too late. Prices are down 30-50% on both rentals and sales no matter

what real estate people tell you. And rentals soaring in the second and third-tier cities.

I'm temporarily, although maybe permanently, in South Florida now. I also got my place sight unseen.

Robyn was looking at listings around Miami and then she saw an area we had never been to before. We found three houses we liked. 

She called the real estate agent. Place #1. Just rented that morning 50% higher than the asking price. Place #2. Also rented

(New Yorkers - "they came from New York for three hours, saw the place, got it, went back to pack."). Place #3. "Available." 

"We'll take it!" The first time we physically saw it was when we flew down and moved in. 

"This is temporary, right?" I confirmed with Robyn. But...I don't know. I'm starting to like the sun a little bit. I mean, when it's behind

the shades. And when I am in air conditioning.

But let's move on for a second: 

Summary: Businesses are remote and they aren't returning to the office. And it's a death spiral: the longer offices remain empty,

the longer they will remain empty. 

In 2005, a hedge fund manager was visiting my office and said, "In Manhattan you practically trip over opportunities in the street." 

Now the streets are empty. 

Read the rest of Altucher's reasons for why NYC is finished here: 

https://jamesaltucher.com/blog/nyc-is-dead-forever-heres-why

He covers the topics of CULTURE, FOOD, COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE, COLLEGES etc with some facts and numbers.

 

 

[Kumaravaarma]

Mayor Kallakand briefings stopped or continuing 

[Curs0r]

Homeless people in New York City on August 14. Some residents say they no longer want to stay in New York because the homeless population is growing and becoming more aggressive

 

[Curs0r]

In the last week, there have been more than 60 shootings across New York City that have left 76 people injured and 14 dead. Above, one crime scene on August 16

[Curs0r]

As shootings spiral, there is also a growing homeless problem with encampments popping up all over Manhattan. 13,000 homeless people have also been moved into hotels around the city

 

[Curs0r]

In the last five years the number of shootings fell to a low of 754 in 2018, but is now rising

 

[Curs0r]

The Sergeants Benevolent Association, the largest NYPD union, is endorsing Trump for re-election. The union is furious with de Blasio for stripping some of the police department's resources 

[Curs0r]

President Trump has lashed out at New York City's mayor Bill de Blasio after a weekend of violence in which at least 50 people were shot in various incidents across the city

[Gaali_Gottam_Govinda]

Cousin gaadiki cheptane unna........ Rent lo undu raa NYC lo unnani rojulu........ Don't buy a home near NYC.

 

Hoboken lo 900K petti teeskunnadu 2 years back......... When the market was red hot.

 

 

[Curs0r]

1 hour ago, Gaali_Gottam_Govinda said:

Cousin gaadiki cheptane unna........ Rent lo undu raa NYC lo unnani rojulu........ Don't buy a home near NYC.

 

Hoboken lo 900K petti teeskunnadu 2 years back......... When the market was red hot.

 

 

I hear you.

Opportunistic investors see light at the end of the tunnel, even in the darkest of times.

But this time it feels eerily different. Then again this same gloominess was doomsayer-ed before. 

Having said that, there's more than a shred of truth to what Altucher and others say. This time may be fundamentally different. 

Before Bandwidth and After Bandwidth. 

BB and AB.

The only calculation remains how many jobs beside Construction workers, Healthcare providers like Doctors, Nurses Etc.,Truckers. Cashiers, Taxi Drivers & Factory Workers 

need actual physical presence all the time and cannot be done remotely. ( Mind you even the list of occupations mentioned here are being automated away at 

breakneck pace ) 

That structural shift aside, I don't know if people's psyches can handle TWO EARTH SHATTERING RECESSIONS in the space of 

10-12 years if there were to be one now or in early 2021. The 2000 ( to some extent ) and 2008 ( to a much larger extent ) recessions had left indelible imprints on a whole generation of kids

and teens who have NEVER LIVED in a time when AMERICA WAS NOT ENGAGED in CONTINUOUS MAJOR WARS abroad. 

A third blow now will change the world in ways we cant yet imagine.

This is the uncertainty that's giving cold feet to even seasoned investors. 

People said Buffet lost his touch when he sold his airlines stocks. I'm not so sure. 

This time the fear could be very real and very different.

Quote

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, told shareholders on Saturday that he had sold all of the company’s airline stocks, admitting that he had made a mistake and that coronavirus had changed the business in a “very major way.” May 2, 2020

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/05/02/warren-buffett-sells-airline-stocks-amid-coronavirus-i-made-a-mistake/#5a0d91585c74

 

[Curs0r]

 

[JambaKrantu]

A lot of these people are moving to Atlanta

My townhouse is rented to a couple from Brooklyn

 

[JambaKrantu]

I feel bad for New York's fate though

[tables]

all sollu... by 2024 NY will be back to normal.

[Curs0r]

Quote

No its not. This is a coordinated effort by dems to drive the price of high quality real estate down so their families can buy up cheap. Then they’ll enforce the laws and reap the rewards. Just watch. Dems in cali been doing it for years

This is some next level sh#t right here !! Hahaha. You cant put anything past the Dems - so this is entirely plausible.