Sucker Posted November 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r2d2 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 43 minutes ago, ShruteSastry said: how can you blame him for a pandemic nobody would have blamed him had he kept his potty mouth shut...he kept down playing it all year long.. yet claims he saved millions by banning flights to & from China... and when it comes to vote in person he wears a mask .. but heckles everyone else for wearing it.. such a double tongued dotard.. he deserves every bit of abuse hailed at him.. I have no regrets... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sucker Posted November 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 If President Trump pieces together an Electoral College win on Tuesday, at least one pollster — and perhaps only one — will be able to say, “I told you so.” That person is Robert Cahaly, whose Trafalgar Group this year has released a consistent stream of battleground-state polls showing the president highly competitive against Joseph R. Biden Jr., and often out ahead, in states where most other pollsters have shown a steady Biden lead. Trafalgar does not disclose its methods, and is considered far too shadowy by other pollsters to be taken seriously. Mostly, they dismiss it as an outlier. But for Mr. Cahaly, “I told you so” is already a calling card. In 2016, its first time publicly releasing polls, Trafalgar was the firm whose state surveys most effectively presaged Mr. Trump’s upset win. A veteran Republican strategist, Mr. Cahaly even called the exact number of Electoral College votes that Mr. Trump and Hillary Clinton would receive — 306 to 227 — although his prediction of which states would get them there was just slightly off. So with liberal anxieties flaring over whether to trust the polls, the gregarious, goatee-and-bowtie-wearing Mr. Cahaly has been in demand on cable news lately. In addition to frequent appearances on Fox News, Mr. Cahaly was on CNN last week, explaining to Michael Smerconish why he thought the president would walk away with an easy victory — and defending himself against a battery of critiques that Mr. Smerconish called up, one by one, from Mr. Cahaly’s peers. Amid a crush of pre-election media coverage seeking his theory of the case — it drove more than 1.5 million clicks to Trafalgar’s site on Monday, he said — the big question seems to be: Is it possible to believe a guy whose polls consistently give Mr. Trump just enough support for a narrow lead in most swing states, and who refuses to reveal much of anything about how he gets his data? In his last few polls of this election season, Mr. Cahaly has found Mr. Trump with two-to-three-point advantages in North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan and Florida, and wider leads elsewhere. That puts him far out of line with almost all major pollsters, whose surveys in those states are generally showing Mr. Biden with the edge. As different as things are this year, it’s hard to miss the echo of 2016, when Trafalgar occupied a similarly lonely position on the eve of Nov. 8. Above all, Mr. Cahaly’s approach centers on the belief that everyone lies, but especially conservatives. This has largely been disproved by social science, but that hasn’t softened his conviction. To hear him explain it, traditional pollsters (he calls them “dinosaurs”) are crippled by “social desirability bias”: the tendency for respondents to say what they think an interviewer wants to hear, not what they actually believe. In Mr. Trump’s America, he says, that problem has grown worse. “I just think people are not what they say they are, ever,” Mr. Cahaly said in a recent phone interview from Atlanta, where he lives. “We cannot eliminate the social desirability bias, we can only minimize it.” Four years ago, he addressed this by asking people both whom they would support for president and whom they thought their neighbors would support. This year, he said, he is using other means to achieve the same result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sucker Posted November 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Pack up Dems. Veellu okkalle last time Trump win ani cheppindi along with LA times. Do ee sari kuda veellu Swing states lo thatha arachakam ani confirm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sucker Posted November 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Thanks to Sleepy for last minute oil comments in the debate. PA Assam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r2d2 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, Sucker said: The One Pollster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sucker Posted November 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajnabee Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 counting eppudu start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sucker Posted November 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sucker Posted November 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, ajnabee said: counting eppudu start Evening Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sucker Posted November 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 @r2d2 get ready for Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sucker Posted November 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r2d2 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Sucker said: yes.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k2s Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jombo0108 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 the red wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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