485 (GC), Ead , AP, Spillover issues

[csrcsr]

29 minutes ago, terminator_desi said:

Copied from telegram..what is your opinion?

Employment Based for FY 2022 :: Starts Oct 2021 :: 140K + 160K (Spill over from Family based) = 300K

EB (300K) = EB1(28.6% = 85K) + EB2(28.6% = 85K) + EB3(28.6% = 85K) +EB4(7.1% = 21K) + EB5(7.1% = 21K)

EB Spillover :: (EB4+EB5) --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3

EB1 Final Count :: 85K + 10K(EB4+EB5) :: Since all of EB1 is current, We can expect 60K + to move down to EB2

EB2 Break down :: EB2I(7% @ 6K) + EB2C(7% @ 6K) + EB2ROW((73K) + 60K(From EB1)) = 145K

EB2 India Count :: 6K(Initial Allotment) + 90K(From EB2 ROW to most backlogged country) = ~ 100K +

EB3 Break Down :: EB3I(7% @ 6K) + EB3C(7% @ 6K) + EB3ROW((73K) + Spillover from EB2 which would be ZERO.

EB3 India Count :: 6K(Initial Allotment) + 50K(From EB3 ROW to most backlogged country) = ~ 55K +

Assuming all from 2010 are greened for FY2021 (Or Equivalent head count up-to 2010)

2011, 12, 13, 14, 15 have 25K EB2 and 5K EB3 initial petitions with an avg of an additional dependent each.

--> EB2 will move till end of 2012 (Use up 100K EB2)

--> EB3 is a little tricky as if we assume even if 30% have downgraded and with the current rapid final action date movement, most will do premium to have 140 approved adding to the EB3 count and do not expect that to go past Jan 2015.

Accounted for Visa Number wastage by assuming only 2010 are greened in FY2021.

Straight cases might get a chance but not sure about downgrade in October 2021. My expectation is 90% in Oct-Dec 2020 will be cleared and few straight cases in 2021 but rest might be pending for a long time to come unless there is another spillover.
 

Adu first process cheyali kada bro 2 months nin chi current ayinvalu unaru no not even started for downgrades at least if he starts we will know wastage a vastada raada etc

[CrazyLuckyGuy]

1 hour ago, terminator_desi said:

Copied from telegram..what is your opinion?

Employment Based for FY 2022 :: Starts Oct 2021 :: 140K + 160K (Spill over from Family based) = 300K

EB (300K) = EB1(28.6% = 85K) + EB2(28.6% = 85K) + EB3(28.6% = 85K) +EB4(7.1% = 21K) + EB5(7.1% = 21K)

EB Spillover :: (EB4+EB5) --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3

EB1 Final Count :: 85K + 10K(EB4+EB5) :: Since all of EB1 is current, We can expect 60K + to move down to EB2

EB2 Break down :: EB2I(7% @ 6K) + EB2C(7% @ 6K) + EB2ROW((73K) + 60K(From EB1)) = 145K

EB2 India Count :: 6K(Initial Allotment) + 90K(From EB2 ROW to most backlogged country) = ~ 100K +

EB3 Break Down :: EB3I(7% @ 6K) + EB3C(7% @ 6K) + EB3ROW((73K) + Spillover from EB2 which would be ZERO.

EB3 India Count :: 6K(Initial Allotment) + 50K(From EB3 ROW to most backlogged country) = ~ 55K +

Assuming all from 2010 are greened for FY2021 (Or Equivalent head count up-to 2010)

2011, 12, 13, 14, 15 have 25K EB2 and 5K EB3 initial petitions with an avg of an additional dependent each.

--> EB2 will move till end of 2012 (Use up 100K EB2)

--> EB3 is a little tricky as if we assume even if 30% have downgraded and with the current rapid final action date movement, most will do premium to have 140 approved adding to the EB3 count and do not expect that to go past Jan 2015.

Accounted for Visa Number wastage by assuming only 2010 are greened in FY2021.

Straight cases might get a chance but not sure about downgrade in October 2021. My expectation is 90% in Oct-Dec 2020 will be cleared and few straight cases in 2021 but rest might be pending for a long time to come unless there is another spillover.
 

Paper meda idi anta bagundi ... stats,assumptions etc etc ...

 

Reality lo USCIS em anukunutnado teliyadu ... baahubali lo Tanikela bharani dialogue gurthuvastundi

[snoww]

22 minutes ago, CrazyLuckyGuy said:

Paper meda idi anta bagundi ... stats,assumptions etc etc ...

 

Reality lo USCIS em anukunutnado teliyadu ... baahubali lo Tanikela bharani dialogue gurthuvastundi

Charlie vuncle will keep moving dates regardless of uscis speed or number of eb3 downgrades. So this will result in some lucky people after 2015 getting GCs while unlucky people from 2009, 2010 still wait for some more years. It all big mess and pure lottery world now. 

[CrazyLuckyGuy]

31 minutes ago, snoww said:

Charlie vuncle will keep moving dates regardless of uscis speed or number of eb3 downgrades. So this will result in some lucky people after 2015 getting GCs while unlucky people from 2009, 2010 still wait for some more years. It all big mess and pure lottery world now. 

Really i doubt if Charlie would move dates past 2015 ... Unless Reddy emana lobbying cheste Charlie tho 

[snoww]

4 minutes ago, CrazyLuckyGuy said:

Really i doubt if Charlie would move dates past 2015 ... Unless Reddy emana lobbying cheste Charlie tho 

He is will surely move filing dates showing next year spill over as reason. He already gave a hint about it. That is enough to block speed for everyone with lakhs of more new applications. 

[RunRaajaRun123]

30 minutes ago, snoww said:

He is will surely move filing dates showing next year spill over as reason. He already gave a hint about it. That is enough to block speed for everyone with lakhs of more new applications. 

Feb 2018, DOF any chances for Eb 3

[karna11]

On 7/4/2021 at 3:23 PM, csrcsr said:

But good thing is even adi ayina 30 days ki apply chestge 100% vastundi so no fear only thing vadu cases epdu process chestado

 so far lawyer ki and site lo koda no updates

[terminator_desi]

2 hours ago, snoww said:

Charlie vuncle will keep moving dates regardless of uscis speed or number of eb3 downgrades. So this will result in some lucky people after 2015 getting GCs while unlucky people from 2009, 2010 still wait for some more years. It all big mess and pure lottery world now. 

Retrogress ayina upto 2011 folks might be safe

[snoww]

2 hours ago, terminator_desi said:

Retrogress ayina upto 2011 folks might be safe

Next 2022 August sep varaku no retrogress annadu Charlie vuncle. He won't retrogress hoping that at least next year uscis will honor spill over numbers. 

[CrazyLuckyGuy]

48 minutes ago, snoww said:

Next 2022 August sep varaku no retrogress annadu Charlie vuncle. He won't retrogress hoping that at least next year uscis will honor spill over numbers. 

sentence last lo annavu chuudu .. aa honor yedo chesete bagundu

[perugu_vada]

my i140 in Premium Processing is approved today .. June-30 ki received ani status changed 

 

[Tadaka]

56 minutes ago, perugu_vada said:

my i140 in Premium Processing is approved today .. June-30 ki received ani status changed 

 

Congrats bro. 

[vatchesa]

32 minutes ago, perugu_vada said:

my i140 in Premium Processing is approved today .. June-30 ki received ani status changed 

 

First time or second?

[csrcsr]

39 minutes ago, perugu_vada said:

my i140 in Premium Processing is approved today .. June-30 ki received ani status changed 

 

Congrats bro

[perugu_vada]

33 minutes ago, vatchesa said:

First time or second?

1st time