East Coast folks...brace for --- The polar vortex may be on its way

[Spartan]

Cold air is more dense, so it sinks, allowing the hot air from the SSW to remain in the stratosphere and the colder air to sink down into the lower levels near the surface. That downward sinking air results in sections of the polar vortex pushing down into lower latitudes of North America, Europe, and Asia.

 

Recently, a SSW caused the polar vortex to begin shifting away from the North Pole. But where that cold air will end up over the next week or two remains a question. What makes this SSW so special is its intensity, which increases the chances of impacting the Northern Hemisphere.

 

It's important to note that a disruption in the polar vortex does not garner immediate changes to weather. Instead, its effects are typically delayed.

"In the stratosphere, the polar vortex typically recovers in strength within a couple of weeks of the peak of the event," Furtado said. "However, in the troposphere, the effects of the SSW event (e.g., a further south jet stream, cold and stormy weather) can last for up to 8 weeks. So, these events, which can evolve quickly, can have lasting impacts on the winter weather patterns in the troposphere."

 

Another thing to note: Even with strong SSW events, there is still no certainty that the US will see direct impacts.

"We actually had two events in the recent past that shows this contrast. There was a major SSW event in February 2018 and one in January 2019, and the after effects of each were very different," Furtado said.

 

Furtado says we had cold and stormy weather for much of the central and eastern regions of North America following the 2018 event, but minimal effects were felt in North America following the 2019 event.

 

So, no need to panic about this recent event. But it's certainly something to watch over the next seven to 14 days.

 

 

Forecast temperatures for January 16, 2021

How climate change plays a role

If you have a warming Earth, then it would only make sense for more frequent sudden stratospheric warming events to occur, right? The answer is complex, mostly because no one lives at the North Pole -- other than Santa -- which makes long term historical weather data very hard to come by.

But this doesn't mean climate change isn't impacting the polar vortex.

 

"We know from observations that the Arctic region is warming at a much faster rate than other parts of the globe (we call this Arctic Amplification)," Furtado said. "The impact of Arctic Amplification is twofold. First, since the Arctic is getting much warmer, when cold air outbreaks occur in North America and Europe/Asia, they aren't as cold as they were decades ago. The second effect (though currently debated in the science community) is that a warmer Arctic is also making the stratospheric polar vortex weaker on the average."

This is why, in theory, a weaker polar vortex should be easier to disrupt, allowing for more frequent SSW events.

The takeaway? Even though a warming planet may mean the overall number of snowstorms across the globe may decrease, the ones that do happen could produce much larger snowfall accumulations.

 

[DummyVariable]

Yes, all driveways salted

@friesNfrappe 

[Yuvasamudram]

Inka 0 unna -20 unna peddaga farak padadu baa

[LadiesTailor]

Bayataku povadam ledu baa... polar vertex vachina polar express vachina lite 

[yemdoing]

14 minutes ago, LadiesTailor said:

Bayataku povadam ledu baa... polar vertex vachina polar express vachina lite 

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[DummyVariable]

1 minute ago, yemdoing said:

polar bear is only animal categorized as natural predator of human 

If you see it, it mostly means that it has followed you for a long time.

[yemdoing]

2 minutes ago, DummyVariable said:

If you see it, it mostly means that it has followed you for a long time.

[DummyVariable]

4 minutes ago, yemdoing said:

[godfather03]

11 minutes ago, yemdoing said:

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[yemdoing]

3 minutes ago, godfather03 said:

Seriously Polar Bear 10 ft untada?

no man just graphics 

[godfather03]

17 minutes ago, yemdoing said:

no man just graphics 

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[VictoryTDP]

57 minutes ago, DummyVariable said:

If you see it, it mostly means that it has followed you for a long time.

[friesNfrappe]

2 hours ago, DummyVariable said:

Yes, all driveways salted

@friesNfrappe