Visa Bulletin For March 2021

[AndhraneedSCS]

3 hours ago, beerboy17 said:

Will they keep up the same momentum ? 

2 weeks for EB2 India and 3 weeks for EB3 India ani pettadu for future months. 

 

March is the last month in the quarter and there is good movement. Hoping for more movement in June Visa Bulletin 

 

 

EB1 filing dates are current and FA is 01 Aug 20 for India and China. Expecting vertical spillover next quarter 

[megadheera]

2 hours ago, csrcsr said:

@magadheera @magadeera @Iriswest yesterday yiu were asking

Every month ee movement unte chalu. At least end of 2011 varaku clear avuthai. But chala mandiki inka biometrics ye rale. Ee pace lo velthe 2010 clear katanike inko 2 years padthadi

[beerboy17]

50 minutes ago, megadheera said:

Every month ee movement unte chalu. At least end of 2011 varaku clear avuthai. But chala mandiki inka biometrics ye rale. Ee pace lo velthe 2010 clear katanike inko 2 years padthadi

Someone told that every month they won't  move and uscis mentioned 2-3 weeks movement until June.

Can't perdict..

[megadheera]

2 minutes ago, beerboy17 said:

Someone told that every month they won't  move and uscis mentioned 2-3 weeks movement until June.

Can't perdict..

Hope

[WigsandThighs]

India
EB1 - 01AUG20 (7 months)
EB2 - 15JAN10 (3 months 3 days)
EB3 - 01JUL10 (3 months)

[snoww]

3 hours ago, beerboy17 said:

Someone told that every month they won't  move and uscis mentioned 2-3 weeks movement until June.

Can't perdict..

Uscis is contradicting its own statements. First rapid movement ani one week move sesaru. Next 2-3 weeks ani seppi 3 months move sesaru. I think they are at stage where they themselves not able to predict anything in advance. 

[Iriswest]

3 hours ago, megadheera said:

Every month ee movement unte chalu. At least end of 2011 varaku clear avuthai. But chala mandiki inka biometrics ye rale. Ee pace lo velthe 2010 clear katanike inko 2 years padthadi

Adenti October vallandariki schedule aipoindi ga. Going on for November filers right now.

[Iriswest]

35 minutes ago, snoww said:

Uscis is contracting its own statements. First rapid movement ani one week move sesaru. Next 2-3 weeks ani seppi 3 months move sesaru. I think they are at stage where they themselves not able to predict anything in advance. 

Kotha ga hire cheskunnaremo malli.

[Iriswest]

5 hours ago, beerboy17 said:

Em miracle emo .. they should provide clarity so that people can make decisions..

Anyways am interested only in filing dates as I have no hopes on FAD..

Me too have no hopes on FAD. DOF will be decided in September after looking at FAD and possible spillover from FB. If inventory is less than available visas and ROW demand is less (coz not a lot of perms were filed this year) then we can expect movement. Fingers crossed. 

[megadheera]

12 minutes ago, Iriswest said:

Adenti October vallandariki schedule aipoindi ga. Going on for November filers right now.

Chala mandi October filers ki biometric schedule kaledu. Naaku telisnia konthamadi end of October filers ki receipt number kuda raledu

[beerboy17]

March 2021 bulletin out, some of you are happy at the same time anxious. Please take a deep breath. Let me share my perspective. Most people have not seen this kind of VB dates move for EB2 atleast in past few years. Just a caution VB dates jumping up and down like a monkey is not new and historically has been there, Post 2014 onward started EB2-I in snail pace. Prior to that it was always roller coaster rides and EB3 had that for many decades. So Strap you boots, this kind of trend possibly will be there for atleast another year till End of 2022 if no law changes. May be we need a volatility index (VIX) for EB2/3-I. Historically it was due demand-supply gap , what later come back is retrogression cycles primarily due to demand shoot up. This year we dont need to worry about Supply side, because FY2020 FB SpillOver(SO)got us record level of "good surplus of Green Card 261,000 Green Cards instead of 140,000".

Not to worry for next few months till Sep 2021 bulletin ideally it should be forward movement for EB2/3-India.

We have a problem, The new villain is "Processing times". This would not make no sense for many, But hold your thoughts - think through it - if dates are moving wildly to a territory where runway is small(means Green Card issuance by Sep 30th 2021 i.e 8 more months) what can happen. To give an example quoting my friend who filed in EB3-I on October 2020 bulletin after waiting decade and his Priority Date is May 6th 2010, yes he is direct EB3 filer. He got his physical receipt 2 weeks back. Now his date is current for March 2021, will he get green card in March 2021? or June 2021? or August 2021?

I guess with above example , people will be able to realize have the new villain in town i.e "Processing times for 485" is going make or break for EB2-I and EB3-I.

Geerally once 485 is filed a person who is current in FAD ,it takes 8 months to 16 months to get Green Card, in some case its beyond that. These timeframes are pre-covid, now with covid, government efficiency is at rock bottom. Not their fault, but Corona situation has crippled most USCIS offices and they are working in 60-70% capacity. Just a week back February USCIS issued all receipts notices till October 30th 2020 filers.

Based on my calculation, Green Card Numbers wise there is enough GC for India to cover 2010 and easily to mid 2011 for both EB2-I and EB3-I and also good part is EB1-I is near current.
Department of State(DoS) who is in-charge of Visa Bulletin Final Action Dates(FAD) can even move the dates for EB2/3 to 2011, BUT PROBLEM is - HOW DHS/USCIS is going to issue Green Card? Without Biometric done(3 months from receipt), and background checks with FBI etc (takes 60 more days), how can USCIS issue Green Cards. Plus now we have Interview mandate, assume that will get waived off.

The problem of processing delay is not just for EB1/2/3-I ,its even for ROW filers , not fixing this will have catastrophic impact to FY2022. Needless to say India backlog this is golden opportunity to get to dates till near 2012.

If USCSI do speed up processing, review queues and process right application then there is good chance that almost all EB2-India and EB3-India filers in 2010 as well as till mid 2011 will comfortably get cleared by Sep 30th 2021. Else its is whoever on luck factor will get and residuals will get carried over to FY2022 which makes things worse.

USCIS should do below and roll up sleeves up step up processing focussing on right set of PD 485 to issue Green Cards. Point 1 and 2 below are super critical for new filers to get GC this year.

1) USCIS need to Collect Biometric ASAP who can be potentially current for Year FY2021 giving them Priority to EB1-I till 2020, EB2/3-I India till atleast till mid 2011.
2) On a War footing initiate background checks for the above so that they get FBI checks and all background is cleared.
3) Issue RFE for all 2012 filers of EB2-India and clear till May 2010 in next 3 months.
4) STOP Interview mandate for Employment Based Green Cards issuance. This stupid process for EB creates 3 - 6 months unnecessary delay for GC issuance.

Failure of this will lead to retrogression cycles for FY2022 and zig-zag movements again which is shame if we are back to old decade old problem where date can be stuck in 2011 or even go back.

The make or break deal is going to be how USCSI is going to improve processing, else by Q4FY2021 randomly people will get Green Cards on a wide spectrum and next year if its like a normal year, retrogression cycles kicks in.

Just visualize giving few example, So lets us assume there are 2 people A &B with exact same Priority date in EB3-I with December 2010

Example 1 - people in crowded Application Support Centers(ASSC) in East and West Coast , certain crowded cities where there is quite a backlog on getting Biometric issued, by this pace it is going to take till May/June.

Person A lives in New Orleans, LA and has his Biometric Done already in February
Person B lives in populous City in CA or NY, his Biometric delayed and possibly done by May/June 2021, due to covid/capacity issues in ASC

Example 2 - timing on application filed

Person A 485 case was filed during October 2nd week and hence was able to get appointment for Biometric in December/January and all his side is cleared including he got EAD/AP.
Person B filed 485 on October 30th and just got receipt in February and lives in a populous City. Ram jane when he is going to get Biometric.

Example 3 - Slow processing Service Center or due to his/her bad luck in paper work an RFE kicks in

Person A filed though have got biometric and his office just need to look at the file and issue GC.
Person B filed 485 on October 30th but just got physical receipt in February and lives in a populous City.

For all above 3 examples, the possibility of Person A get Green Card in FY2021 (ending Sep 30th) is high but Person B can get left out, get rolled over to FY2022 issuance and there how many SO will again drive his/her Green Card.

Good news as of now is EB1-India moved 7 months and soon will be current and that is going give vertical SpillOver to EB2-I. Another good news is EB3-I looks have legs now, it just need to run. Fingers crossed. So FY2021 now all bets are on USCIS hope they drastic "Processing times improvements for 485" to make it amazing year for Indians in backlog and get relief, hope all till 2011 get cleared by Sep 30th 2021. That will keep the ball rolling for FY2022. Fingers crossed.

[k2s]

ARM.. AR

[afacc123]

4 hours ago, k2s said:

ARM.. AR

AVM.. AV

[beerboy17]

Ban lifted ?  Dont know the outlook for Oct 21.. looks like we will get less SO in Oct 21 @Iriswest

 

Ugh, SpillOver for FY2022 got jinxed

Trump ban on Immigrant Visa(IV)/Green Card issuance in consulates got reversed by President Biden today evening. This was anticipated on Day 1 but dragged till date. This also revokes temp visa worker ban, so relief for many H1B who are stuck.

Back on topic Almost 5 months October 1st 2020 to Till Today February 24th 2021, there was very limited number of GC issued in consulates and affected mostly Family Based.

Just to recap - April 2020 to Sep 30th 2020, that was almost 5 months and gave FY2021 , 121,500 additional Green Card. Will we get then 121,500 additional Green Card for FY2022 as well in Employment Based? I guess it will be much lesser than last year SO, as Administration has 7 months and will pull all levers to play catch up and consume most of FB Quota which got unused in part 5 months, at least they will try. I expect it to be near to half of last year in range of 50 to 70k instead of 121k. Which translates to 55-57k for EB1/2/3 instead of 75k in FY2021. Million dollar question is - how many of FB GC get spilled over to FY2022 to Employment Based, need to wait an see till Oct 2021.

Also when consulates starts giving temp visa and issue FB GC more(fast tract to consume their quota), the flow of ROW H1/L1 will also surge as well GC applications of ROW in FY2022...which will creates more ROW demand. FY2022 does NOT look rosy as FY2021 for Indians in backlog, it going to affect EB3 badly.