BREAKING - Immigrant Visa Ban Rescinded

[beerboy17]

19 minutes ago, Iriswest said:

Manam anukunnantha movement undakapovachu. Asalu malli 2015 touch cheyakapovachu. Any SO above 100K is a good cushion. But with opening 1 month early, it gives more time for consulates to issue more visas. 60K visas will hardly do anything for us.

As per your calculation it is just one month before the ban is lifted correct so assuming 20k visas are lost...and do you think consulates will operate at full capacity ? @Iriswest

[veerigadu]

8 minutes ago, Iriswest said:

Daani kosam out of country 1 year undali kada darling. It’s a big change.

Gotcha. Makes sense. Dont call me darling btw. 

[snoww]

1 hour ago, beerboy17 said:

As per your calculation it is just one month before the ban is lifted correct so assuming 20k visas are lost...and do you think consulates will operate at full capacity ? @Iriswest

No one can guess that number. It all depends on to how much level Biden administration pushes consulates to operate. Only time will tell. 

If they instruct consulates to work more and handle more cases then even zero spill over scenario is also possible. 

[ARYA]

4 minutes ago, Anta Assamey said:

I-140 tho EAD ... This is a better idea than anything else... 

lol idi jariginatte

[chicagoafdb]

8 hours ago, Iriswest said:

Ante piecemeal approach ki kuda ready annadu ga tatha. President introduce chesina bills usually see the light of the day since they are tied to their reputation. Trump tax bill, obama obamacare bill laga emaina ayye chance undani.

It starts with DACA. Current admin agenda is DACA, shitizen ship to non citizens. They will fight for that and we know it won't go anywhere.

Where as legal immigration is not on any party priority. So it always at the end of any bill, will be successful dumped by other agenda.

Legal immigration is no one's child. Current biden bill is very very liberal than 2013 bill. 

Let's see hope for the best..

[beerboy17]

Think little bigger, USA is magnet, most people want to migrate here and dont want to give up a chance. Look at DV lottery for 50K immigrant visa(GC) - 2 Million people apply and DV lottery excludes India and China. H1B Lottery - for 85k almost 250k people give a try.....

Immigrant Visa(IV) ban had cascade issue on FB and EB. It just deferred people flow, those people who were wanting to come to US and got into line ,did NOT go anywhere or are not going to give up, their ticket just postponed as legal formalities were not completed at Consulate by DoS(Department of State is incharge to issue GC at consulates).

For next FY2022 Supply side(Green Card allocation) will be lower than 261,000, at the same time Demand will spike across the board as their flood gates are going to open.

So for next Year - FY2022(starting Oct 1st 2021 to Sep30 2022)

1. Spill Over will be less in FY2022 and EB1/2/3 allocation will be possibly at 55k which is 20k less than 75k of FY2021.
2. Immigrant Visa(IV) just put EB3 in PAUSE state and its getting lifted. Dont underestimate ROW EB3 demand.
Historically EB3 generally have 28-35 PCT Consular from Philippines, SK etc so by number terms its almost 13k average per year(regular year). IV ban has now cascade effect, its 2 years worth of people ready to flow in
- set 1 were the people who were on brink to come to US on 2020 didnt get a chance and were halted, and
- Set 2 new set of folks in FY2021
And fact is these two set of people wont fully make the cut in FY2021 and moved to 2022 which put 2022 in strain.

An ofcourse Yes, You did attribute 2 factors that also will be spoiler, especially when Economy+covid situation stabilizes, inflow of people(demand from across the board) will be high.

Guess when we are back normal by 2023, and literally no/low SpillOver from FB. EB3-I will be squeezed to settle at 7 PCT 2800 GC per year and any thing more will be at just mercy of ROW Horizontal SO. If no law change 2023 onwards both EB2 and EB3 have same pattern as it was 2012-2018. That is why I was cautioning retrogression cycles.

Note: I am taking a break, if there anything huge i will check else will be in for update for May/June 2021

[akkum_bakkum]

Biden thatha putted.....only Immigrant visas ki ban lift chesadu....H1B's continue to affect from the ban as it was not rescinded...

 

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/News/visas-news/national-interest-exceptions-to-presidential-proclamation-10052-suspending-the-entry-of-nonimmigrants-presenting-a-risk-to-the-united-states-labor-market-during-the-economic-recovery-following-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-outbreak.html

[beerboy17]

1. Do you think EB3 filing date can still go back if they open in Oct ?
2. If they don't open filing date in Oct do you think at least they will open in Oct 22 without retrogressing ?
 

[chicagoafdb]

future is gloomy FY 2022 onwards, people will be rotten in backlog. Inko kotha virus + recession vasthe tappa backlog move avvadu..

[Anta Assamey]

6 hours ago, ARYA said:

lol idi jariginatte

Andaru okati adugutunaru ... Kaliga undatam enduku ani nenu kuda oka raayi vesa... Potey raayi vaste EAD ...

[mirchi_bajji]

why so much disco on spillover? Biden thatha caps lepestha annadu kada. family members ni count lonchi thesestha annadu kuda. so inkemi kavali ?

[akkum_bakkum]

17 minutes ago, mirchi_bajji said:

why so much disco on spillover? Biden thatha caps lepestha annadu kada. family members ni count lonchi thesestha annadu kuda. so inkemi kavali ?

[beerboy17]

1 minute ago, akkum_bakkum said:

Believe me passing any immigration bill is nearly impossible 

[Iriswest]

4 hours ago, chicagoafdb said:

It starts with DACA. Current admin agenda is DACA, shitizen ship to non citizens. They will fight for that and we know it won't go anywhere.

 

 

Where as legal immigration is not on any party priority. So it always at the end of any bill, will be successful dumped by other agenda.

 

 

Legal immigration is no one's child. Current biden bill is very very liberal than 2013 bill. 

Let's see hope for the best..

Provisions which have both houses support will pass for sure. DACA and employment provisions have no much objection. And since it will not be UC even AILA can’t do anything this time. But the question is when will it come up for vote before dems lose one of the houses.

[beerboy17]

Crazy guys guy with PD 14 FEB 2011 got his GC today  without FAD being current ..j