IIS Alert: Deaths To Be Doubled In Next Few Weeks!

[Anta Assamey]

Covid 2.0 in India has been immensely destructive with daily cases touching all-time highs every consecutive day. As we follow the progress of the cases across major states and cities, the numbers look far scary than last year. The ongoing second wave has a series of bad news in store for us every single day and all we crave for is some good tidings. 

But, here’s some more distressing news to share. As per the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore, the situation might get more devastating in the coming weeks. The team from IIS used a mathematical model to predict that more than 404,000 deaths will occur by June 11, if the present pace of virus sustains.

The second wave in India has now become the world’s biggest health crisis and people are left fear-mongered thinking about worse days ahead. Also. a model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington forecast 1,018,879 deaths by the end of July. The forecast depicts the immediate action for India to implement public health measures like testing and social distancing. 

On Wednesday, India reported a record of 3,780 deaths and 382,315 new cases. Ergo, clearly in COVID 2.0, the pace is far higher and continues to grow at an alarming rate. The weekly growth rate can reach 50–80% and cases can multiply rapidly. This wave of COVID has an uncanny resemblance to the Spanish Flu wave in India (1918) which wiped out  5% of the world population. 

The only silver lining we were left with was if things follow the Spanish Flu trend, we will also likely see cases falling by the early June. But the forecast says otherwise. Moreover, the heart-breaking scenes with jammed crematoriums and overburdened hospitals have painted a picture of the unprecedented crisis. 

“The next four to six weeks are going to be very, very difficult for India,” said Ashish Jha, the dean of Brown University School of Public Health. “The challenge is going to be to do things now that will make sure it is four weeks, not six or eight, and that we minimize how bad things will get. But in no way is India anywhere near out of the woods,” he added.