India's actual cases and deaths estimation

[ring_master]

 

[ring_master]

India reports another 400,000+ cases, 4000+ death day A sustained level of horribleness And its not correct True number surely closer to 25,000 deaths, 2-5 million infections today Lots of ways to estimate but here's a simple one Look at the crematoriums Thread

 

10:46 PM · May 8, 2021·Twitter Web App

 

10.3K

Retweets

1,460

Quote Tweets

22.7K

Likes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH

 

@ashishkjha

·

16h

 

 

Replying to

@ashishkjha

During non-pandemic year 2019 About 27,000 Indians died on typical day Crematoriums handle that level of deaths every day Additional 4,000 deaths won't knock them off their feet Crematoriums across the country reporting 2-4X normal business 2/4

 

 

120

 

1.1K

 

3.8K

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH

 

@ashishkjha

·

16h

 

 

So best estimate 55K to 80K people dying daily in India If you assume baseline deaths of 25-30K COVID likely causing additional 25K to 50K deaths daily Not 4,000 What about infections? Lets start with Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) In India, at least 1% right now 3/5

 

 

33

 

1.1K

 

3.5K

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH

 

@ashishkjha

·

16h

 

 

You might say -- woah, that's high In US its about 0.6% and India has a younger population BUT Indian healthcare system has collapsed, People dying for lack of oxygen So IFR of 1% is reasonable, may even too low Which would put daily infections at 2.5 to 5M / day 4/5

 

 

15

 

742

 

3K

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH

 

@ashishkjha

·

16h

 

 

So here's the bottom line India can't be experiencing 4K deaths a day If it were, it would barely be blip in the background Instead, seeing crematoriums running 24/7 and running out of firewood Means the # of deaths from COVID at least closer to 25K, may be much more 5/6

 

 

46

 

1.4K

 

4.3K

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH

 

@ashishkjha

·

16h

 

 

There's an old saying in global health You can ignore, fail to test for, or undercount whatever disease you want But you can't ignore the dead In India, the dead are telling us the disease is much worse than the official statistics And we have to listen Fin

[jawaani_jaaneman]

Infections : 1:10 ratio. For every one confirmed positive case, there will be 10 undetected cases.

Deaths : 1:4 ratio. For every reported death, there are at least 4 unreported deaths.

I don't think this is an issue of hiding the numbers or under reporting, but the way of capturing the numbers itself is not properly defined nationwide. every state has its own method to count the numbers and all states almost have botched up the capturing the numbers.

 

[jawaani_jaaneman]

and more over, this daily case counting itself is a sh!t system. 

someone who had symptoms today, will get reported and counted 4-5 days later and numbers published 6 days later. The numbers what we see daily are not actually yesterday's but at least 4-5 days back. and based on these numbers, quarantine or containment is planned. In short, the containment is planned well after the spread and is literally of no use. 

We need to go with a weekly average count.

[Thokkalee]

In US also there were several deaths not counted as Covid deaths.. when they compared with the average deaths across several years during the same time, it was way too high.. many of them died at home and they were not tested positive 

[chef]

Intha research chesi em chestadanta medhavi... 

[jawaani_jaaneman]

 

[Raven_Rayes]

5 hours ago, Thokkalee said:

In US also there were several deaths not counted as Covid deaths.. when they compared with the average deaths across several years during the same time, it was way too high.. many of them died at home and they were not tested positive 

here comes the idiot with 'other countries do it too' excuse.

[Raven_Rayes]

5 hours ago, chef said:

Intha research chesi em chestadanta medhavi... 

ee data sarigga govt chesi unte, intha problem ayyedhi kaadhu.

inka vaccinations for 45+, ani oka chethha strategy pattukoni ooguthunnaru.when they could be targetting high spread areas progressively

[Raven_Rayes]

6 hours ago, jawaani_jaaneman said:

and more over, this daily case counting itself is a sh!t system. 

someone who had symptoms today, will get reported and counted 4-5 days later and numbers published 6 days later. The numbers what we see daily are not actually yesterday's but at least 4-5 days back. and based on these numbers, quarantine or containment is planned. In short, the containment is planned well after the spread and is literally of no use. 

We need to go with a weekly average count.

you are an idiot. none of what you suggest is remotely connected to the problem.

weekly or daily count makes no difference, when the numbers are fudged.

[jawaani_jaaneman]

1 minute ago, Raven_Rayes said:

you are an idiot. none of what you suggest is remotely connected to the problem.

weekly or daily count makes no difference, when the numbers are fudged.

You are an Idiot. You have no idea how the numbers are being captured.

Once an Idiot, always an idiot.

Don't ever quote me with your rotten logic.

[RoadRomeo]

5 hours ago, chef said:

Intha research chesi em chestadanta medhavi... 

[Raven_Rayes]

5 minutes ago, jawaani_jaaneman said:

You are an Idiot. You have no idea how the numbers are being captured.

Once an Idiot, always an idiot.

Don't ever quote me with your rotten logic.

you must be a 3rd grade MBA loser. That's why you think every little thing you understand must be hugely important to the overall problem.

numbers captured lag by more than a week at times. So what? next you'll suggest fortnightly count aa? 

you are too dumb to know that it won't achieve sh1t.

anyway you're gonna claim something diametrically opposite to what you did just now, after 10mins. 

that's why your verbal diarrhoea deserves no respect. you are just spouting sh1t you don't even understand fully.

[Raven_Rayes]

8 minutes ago, jawaani_jaaneman said:

You are an Idiot. You have no idea how the numbers are being captured.

Once an Idiot, always an idiot.

Don't ever quote me with your rotten logic.

For someone who has been consistently wrong, you have a big mouth.

hope Modi chokes you further with his d1ck further so we don't have to listen to your stupid gyan on 'how things work'.

 

[YeddiBK]

31 minutes ago, jawaani_jaaneman said:

You are an Idiot. You have no idea how the numbers are being captured.

Once an Idiot, always an idiot.

Don't ever quote me with your rotten logic.

 

23 minutes ago, Raven_Rayes said:

you must be a 3rd grade MBA loser. That's why you think every little thing you understand must be hugely important to the overall problem.

numbers captured lag by more than a week at times. So what? next you'll suggest fortnightly count aa? 

you are too dumb to know that it won't achieve sh1t.

anyway you're gonna claim something diametrically opposite to what you did just now, after 10mins. 

that's why your verbal diarrhoea deserves no respect. you are just spouting sh1t you don't even understand fully.

assalu meeru iddaru em chepthunnaro comman man ki ardham ayyettu chepthara ?