NYTimes Report: Not 3 Lakh, India May Really Have 40 Lakh COVID Deaths

[bhaigan]

"Poor record-keeping”, “lack of widespread testing” and “India grossly understating the true state of the pandemic” are some of the damning observations on the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India made in a New York Times article.

In the absence of transparency, the NYT spoke to over a dozen experts to analyse the number of cases and deaths to arrive at several estimates for the real extent of devastation on ground zero.

The detailed report also relies on large-scale antibody tests to arrive at estimates. Despite its limitations, the tests provide a fresh way to arrive at more realistic figures. “It gives us a starting point. I think that an exercise like this can put some bounds on the estimates,” Dan Weinberger, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health, told the NYT.

The report looks at official data from 24 May to compare with the probable estimates. India’s official COVID report states there have been 2,69,48,800 cases of COVID-19 and 3,07,231 deaths.

The Conservative Estimate

The conservative estimate suggests that the pandemic’s actual toll and infections are, in reality, several times higher than reports suggest. This, the NYT report calls, the best-case scenario.

The report used data from three nationwide antibody tests, called serosurveys. Each survey had about 30,000 people examined for COVID-19 antibodies. They also used a conservative infection-fatality rate in this scenario at 0.15 percent.

These estimates reveal:

• The number of cases is 15 times higher than the official figures. It suggests there are 40.42 crore COVI-19 infections as opposed to the officially reported figure of 2.6 crore cases
• The number of deaths is two times higher than that of the official figures. The estimate points towards 6 lakh deaths against the officially reported 3 lakh fatalities

A More Likely Scenario

The report uses the latest seroprevalence in India, which happened in January 2021, and estimated roughly 26 infections per reported case.

In this “more likely scenario”, the report uses a slightly lower figure (than 26 infections per reported case) to calculate infections and the infection fatality rate at 0.3 percent.

These estimates reveal:

• The number of cases is 20 times higher than the official figures. The estimate suggests there are 53.9 crore COVID infections as opposed to the officially reported 2.6 crore cases
• The number of deaths is over five times higher than the official figures. The estimate points towards 16 lakh deaths against the officially reported 3 lakh fatalities

A Worse Scenario

This scenario uses a slightly higher estimate to account for the current wave of infections per reported case. The infection-fatality rate has also increased to double the previous one at 0.6 per cent.

This scenario takes into account the stress of India’s healthcare system. Over the last few weeks, there has been a severe lack of oxygen, beds, and medicines among other things.

This means that a greater share of those who contracted the virus but are not getting access to medical infrastructure, are dying.

The estimates reveal:

• The number of cases is 26 times higher than the official figures. The estimate suggests there are 70.07 crore COVID infections as opposed to the officially reported 2.6 crore cases
• The number of deaths is almost 14 times higher than the official figures. The estimate suggests 42 lakh deaths have occurred in contrast to the official figure of 3 lakh

How Infection Rates Have Been Calculated

Relying on three national serosurveys, the report states how all three found that the actual number of infections was drastically more than the official figures.

• According to a serosurvey conducted between May and June 2020, the number of actual infections was estimated to be about 28.5 times higher
• According to a serosurvey conducted between August and September 2020, the number of actual infections was estimated to be about 13.5 times higher
• According to a serosurvey conducted between December and January 2021, the number of actual infections was estimated to be over 26 times higher

Even this, doctors said, could be an underestimation.

“Those who had been infected a while ago may have not been captured in this survey. So this is probably an underestimation of the true proportion of the infected population,” said, Dr Shioda, an epidemiologist at Emory University.

How Deaths Have Been Calculated

The report says that infection-fatality rates published were calculated before the second wave in India, meaning that the rate could be much higher.

At the same time, these rates vary greatly by age. A paper that examined infection rates using serosurvey data from three locations in India found huge variations, depending upon the population being sampled.

“We found that age-specific infection-fatality rate among returning lockdown migrants was much higher than in richer countries. In contrast, we found a much lower first-wave infection-fatality rate than richer countries in the southern states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu,” Dr Paul Novosad, an associate professor at Dartmouth College, said.

While estimates may vary, one thing that can be said “clearly beyond all doubt” is that the pandemic is much larger than official figures portray.

 

[HugoStrange]

seems to be true, naku telise oka 10 members unnaru. It cannot be 3L. Its way more than that. Also cases kuda chala under reporting undi. Vachina vallu cheppadam ledu. Enduku feel avuthunnaro kani guilty ga feel avuthunnaru. 

[kingcasanova]

3 lakhs antene, bhayam tho chasthunnaaru, ika 40 lakh ante weak hearts anni pagili pothaaayi, entha mandi poyaaru entha mandiki vachindi ane daani badulu vachina vaallani elaa cure cheyyaalo advices isthe chaaaalu, numbers telusukunte plan inkaa baaga cheyachu ani statement ivvochu, but aaa planningey vunte paristhithi ilaa endukuntundi , so manam unna situation lo, manaku unna resources tho 40 lakh deaths, 50 crore testings expect cheyakunda, reality lo batakandi,  

[kittaya]

5 minutes ago, HugoStrange said:

seems to be true, naku telise oka 10 members unnaru. It cannot be 3L. Its way more than that. Also cases kuda chala under reporting undi. Vachina vallu cheppadam ledu. Enduku feel avuthunnaro kani guilty ga feel avuthunnaru. 

Streamline cheyyadam kastam.kakakaaa.

 

.. to get complete reports...

Hospital lo join ayithe kada....report ayyedhi.... 

[HugoStrange]

9 minutes ago, kittaya said:

Streamline cheyyadam kastam.kakakaaa.

 

.. to get complete reports...

Hospital lo join ayithe kada....report ayyedhi.... 

Streamline kavalane cheyadam ledu. Test chesinavallu positive vasthe report cheyachu ga govt ki. Emi cheyaru. No process for it. Chesthe cases ekkuva bayatapadathai ani govt failure antaru ani cheppanivaru. 

[The_Captain]

 

[proudtobeandhrite]

We basically know that the numbers are underreported ani. 5 to 10 times reported number kanna originals ekkuva vuntaayi ani ee DB lone decide chesirru.  

Ippudu NYT report suggests the same thing.  Veedi report ni edo vedam la indian news channels vudaragodthunnayi. Siggundali Indian channels ki , ground level lo vundi actual news report cheyalekaparu. At the same time, i dont believe NYT did actual research either (Well, vellu kuda ground level lo vunna Indian reporters ne use cheyali).  

[Jambhalheart]

40 lakhs kaadhu it will be easily  more than 2 or 3 crores 

chala mandhi covid related symptoms lo chanipothunnaru vallaki tests levu emi levu 

[Raven_Rayes]

its obvious.

[Raven_Rayes]

34 minutes ago, Jambhalheart said:

40 lakhs kaadhu it will be easily  more than 2 or 3 crores 

chala mandhi covid related symptoms lo chanipothunnaru vallaki tests levu emi levu 

antha undadhu le.. may be third wave lo untundemo.

[summer27]

36 minutes ago, Jambhalheart said:

40 lakhs kaadhu it will be easily  more than 2 or 3 crores 

chala mandhi covid related symptoms lo chanipothunnaru vallaki tests levu emi levu 

2-3 crores ante maree ekkuva baa..antha undademo.. 2-3 crores ante almost 2% of population, its not comedy you know..

[summer27]

1 minute ago, Raven_Rayes said:

antha undadhu le.. may be third wave lo untundemo.

Yeah..third wave vaste matram..india cope up avvadam kashtam..

[Raven_Rayes]

1 minute ago, summer27 said:

2-3 crores ante maree ekkuva baa..antha undademo.. 2-3 crores ante almost 2% of population, its not comedy you know..

my guess is about 15-20lakhs. based on states are reporting deaths..

maharashtra tappa andaru high level lo hiding.

kerala, Telangana, Gujarat, UP etc aithe first wave nundey hiding.

karnataka, TamilNadu, Andhra etc only second wave lo aa game start chesaru.

[soodhilodaaram]

1 hour ago, proudtobeandhrite said:

We basically know that the numbers are underreported ani. 5 to 10 times reported number kanna originals ekkuva vuntaayi ani ee DB lone decide chesirru.  

Ippudu NYT report suggests the same thing.  Veedi report ni edo vedam la indian news channels vudaragodthunnayi. Siggundali Indian channels ki , ground level lo vundi actual news report cheyalekaparu. At the same time, i dont believe NYT did actual research either (Well, vellu kuda ground level lo vunna Indian reporters ne use cheyali).  

Wait for these NYT MF's to say India need to suspend its space program to save lives

the last thing one can trust news about india is NYT, they have a congenital hatred for India with their American exceptionalism

[Raven_Rayes]

12 minutes ago, soodhilodaaram said:

Wait for these NYT MF's to say India need to suspend its space program to save lives

the last thing one can trust news about india is NYT, they have a congenital hatred for India with their American exceptionalism

people who love India unconditionally are stupid and brain dead.