97% Indians poorer post-Covid; steady fall in salaried jobs

[Ryzen_renoir]

for the economic impact of India's Covid-19 second wave and the lockdowns across the country to control its spread are now emerging. Investment bank Barclays has said that India is losing about $8 billion--about Rs 60,000 crore--every week in May. The total loss will be $117 billion (Rs 8.5 trillion), or 3.75 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), per Barclays.

Unemployment levels have moved into double digits, at 14.73 per cent for the week ending May 23, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, with over 17 per cent unemployment in urban India and nearly 14 per cent in rural India.

When India was hit by the pandemic in April 2020, about 126 million jobs were lost. That's really a lot. About 90 million of those jobs were of daily wagers. A daily wager is employed by going out to the kerb and finding some job there, or going to some construction site and finding a job there, or pushing a cart to sell [their] wares. When the nation was locked down, almost all the daily wage earners lost their source of income or employment.

But as the economy opened up, you could push your cart again, you could go back to the kerb, you could be a plumber or a mason. The construction sites started humming again and you started getting a job again. So the daily wage earners are the people who can move in and out of employment fairly casually. What has happened though, is their earning propensity has declined. So they were doing the same job but earning a little less, and there were fewer opportunities for them to earn as well. Not all the 126 million jobs came back. A small sliver did not get their jobs back. As research done by Amit Basole, Rosa Abraham and their team at Azim Premji University using the same CMIE data has shown, those who lost formal jobs and regained them, a significant number got these back as informal jobs. So informality increased in the post-Covid-19 pandemic period, or rather the period after the first quarter of the pandemic hitting.

Now, what we are seeing besides this is what CMIE has been pointing out for a long time, that there is a steady fall in salaried jobs and that's not abating. We had 403.5 million jobs before we were hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. Best case [scenario] in January 2021 or December 2020, we reached 400 million jobs. So [even in the] best case, we were still 3.5 million jobs short. Today, we're at 390 million. So, we are much worse off. Everybody has not got [their] job back. And those who have got their jobs back have not necessarily got the same quality job. And salaried jobs are still falling.

Full interview here : https://wap.business-standard.com/article-amp/economy-policy/cmie-ceo-says-97-indians-poorer-post-covid-steady-fall-in-salaried-jobs-121052900142_1.html?__twitter_impression=true

[futureofandhra]

real estate going sky rocket

hope those poor families rebound n get more money

[Ryzen_renoir]

Just now, futureofandhra said:

real estate going sky rocket

hope those poor families rebound n get more money

Real estate is a temporary bubble without the associated grwoth of economy . 

Jobs lekapothey inka endhuku real estate ? Worthless.  Any economy based on real estate itself will inevitably collapse

[shenkar]

2 minutes ago, futureofandhra said:

real estate going sky rocket

hope those poor families rebound n get more money

what is the relation between poor and real estate?

[Ryzen_renoir]

1 minute ago, shenkar said:

what is the relation between poor and real estate?

Generally construction activities will temporarily boost low wage jobs. 

It has the highest potential to generate low wage jobs after agriculture 

[jawaani_jaaneman]

Infrastructure is the only way at the moment..

Infra financing will be the key. May be home loans interest rate tagginchadam, infra financing funding increase, fast track approvals etc.

First wave dhebbaki, kastha infra mida importance ekuvaindi but that's not enough. Hopefully, the government identifies this crucial sector and provides enough funding and eliminates unnecessary hurdles.

[jawaani_jaaneman]

Rupee devaluation, hyper inflation in FMCG goods, infrastructure raw materials getting expensive as well as labor...ie challenges ni control cheyadam itself is a big task...etla handle chestaro emo..

[Ryzen_renoir]

32 minutes ago, jawaani_jaaneman said:

Infrastructure is the only way at the moment..

Infra financing will be the key. May be home loans interest rate tagginchadam, infra financing funding increase, fast track approvals etc.

First wave dhebbaki, kastha infra mida importance ekuvaindi but that's not enough. Hopefully, the government identifies this crucial sector and provides enough funding and eliminates unnecessary hurdles.

Antha important polavaram Kay dabbulu ivvadam ledhu . Perhaps it will be the last biggest storage dam of india.

Meanwhile China literally built three huge hydro projects on Brahmaputra from 2014,india gone case wrong priorities for leaders . UP lo entha pettina adhi oka blackhole , the returns will not be there . 

80% funding financially unviable projects like agra , kanpur metro.

Landlocked/ polluted/ lawless state lo infrastructure ki priority ivvadam ento ardham kaadhu

[jawaani_jaaneman]

26 minutes ago, Ryzen_renoir said:

Antha important polavaram Kay dabbulu ivvadam ledhu . Perhaps it will be the last biggest storage dam of india.

Meanwhile China literally built three huge hydro projects on Brahmaputra from 2014,india gone case wrong priorities for leaders . UP lo entha pettina adhi oka blackhole , the returns will not be there . 

80% funding financially unviable projects like agra , kanpur metro.

Landlocked/ polluted/ lawless state lo infrastructure ki priority ivvadam ento ardham kaadhu

That's true. Commercially important projects and commercially not viable projects ki balance chestaleru, this regime is completely election centric. Ae state election vunte, budget allocations motham ade state ki..

Worst of NDA-2 inka raledu, watch out for budget allocations for UP next year. 10 billion $ budget tho eelction ki potaru. at least 55-60% of state spending will be by the center sponsored schemes.

Keeping political affiliations aside,  Most infra companies have been getting loans from abroad like singapore, bahrain, europe etc. almost 1-2Billion loans range varaku foreign funding vuntundi for commercially viable projects, at least GoI green signal ivali 100% foreign funding and make things smoother for them..such funding will massively cut the shortfall in capital financing.

You know, paisa hain toh sab kuch hain..

[kdapparao]

2 hours ago, futureofandhra said:

real estate going sky rocket

hope those poor families rebound n get more money

At the moment only pharma, medical people in India have the money to invest big on Realestate and NRI are investing in the ventures.. rest of the sectors no one has money to invest.

[hyperbole]

4 minutes ago, kdapparao said:

At the moment only pharma, medical people in India have the money to invest big on Realestate and NRI are investing in the ventures.. rest of the sectors no one has money to invest.

No one will take money out. The confidence is all time low among corporates

[hyperbole]

First of all the should correct the vaccine strategy, they should make it free for everyone as there are unnecessarily creating a black market for vaccines by pricing it, it will do more ill than good due to greedy Mofos hoarding and create artificial shortages even when the vaccines will be available abundantly in future

[hyperbole]

1 hour ago, jawaani_jaaneman said:

That's true. Commercially important projects and commercially not viable projects ki balance chestaleru, this regime is completely election centric. Ae state election vunte, budget allocations motham ade state ki..

Worst of NDA-2 inka raledu, watch out for budget allocations for UP next year. 10 billion $ budget tho eelction ki potaru. at least 55-60% of state spending will be by the center sponsored schemes.

Keeping political affiliations aside,  Most infra companies have been getting loans from abroad like singapore, bahrain, europe etc. almost 1-2Billion loans range varaku foreign funding vuntundi for commercially viable projects, at least GoI green signal ivali 100% foreign funding and make things smoother for them..such funding will massively cut the shortfall in capital financing.

You know, paisa hain toh sab kuch hain..

Aa loans rakane kada mana PSU  banks loans ichi devala tesinayi. Ippudu overseas bank dare chestaya annnadi chodali as the economies all over are effed up. Mana banks UPA time lo laga loans iche stage lo levvu so my take GOI should induce money

[jawaani_jaaneman]

1 hour ago, hyperbole said:

Aa loans rakane kada mana PSU  banks loans ichi devala tesinayi. Ippudu overseas bank dare chestaya annnadi chodali as the economies all over are effed up. Mana banks UPA time lo laga loans iche stage lo levvu so my take GOI should induce money

PSU's are heavily controlled. As long as they are PSU's, they have liability to remain as PSU's, mere empoyment generation companies.

Domestic lending is now in perils. Thanks to policies for the last 30 years for the present situation. NPA problem at the most crucial time. Itlanti time la firiegn funding ni maximum attract cheyali, we still have those imperial era laws gotto get rid of them..

Fo rexample, let some friegn fund fund Polavaram..elago slow retuen tesche project adi..1-2% interest rate mida foreign fund tho complete cheyandi...decade long la repayment. evadiki poyedi emi ledu and at the sam time, Indian funding for lucrative infra  projects like road or ports..Indian money maximum india lopale vundipotadi and interest payemnts valla Indian ae bnefit avutadu..

Time for 1991 like reforms..I hope NDA gets serious on such things.

[Ryzen_renoir]

1 hour ago, hyperbole said:

Aa loans rakane kada mana PSU  banks loans ichi devala tesinayi. Ippudu overseas bank dare chestaya annnadi chodali as the economies all over are effed up. Mana banks UPA time lo laga loans iche stage lo levvu so my take GOI should induce money

Exactly, no one will trust the  legal system of india. Look at how every big willful defaulter is in the parliment. 

Hopefully they should be able to have arbitration clause from a working judiciary  like britan , Singapore , etc