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Telugodura456

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Just now, Telugodura456 said:

They are not a master race or anything. But they have reached a critical momentum and a different political system which can marshall resources to one strategic goal MAY give them success.

it was a joke.

critical momentum in civilian infra projects, not in hi-tech engineering. They are not even designing their own phones. Taiwan is. Here, the US tech is not the one that is powering Taiwanese engine, but their superior design processes.

Chinese will have some wins like Kirin chips (which scared the US), but it won't translate into large scale momentum shift in the field.

if you talk about space race, that's mostly bs. there's nothing much to do in the near future in space. just some people willing to burn money on pet projects in the hope they'll find something they can make money on.

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7 minutes ago, Telugodura456 said:

But they have reached a critical momentum and a different political system which can marshall resources to one strategic goal MAY give them success.

basically nationalism.

nationalism can power space programs, military weapons ... things that don't have to answer to the market forces and work inspite of being inefficient.

but to succeed in the market, you need people/firms to cooperate out of their own interest. To expect photolithography machine makers to spring up in China, who'll be unable to sell to chipmakers outside of China  is goin to kill that industry even before it starts.

there are 100 other components that China has to develop that they can access only by being part of the US ecosystem.

you should go to China. Outside of low end manufacturing and assembly, not much exists behind the glitzy new cities of China. You could get your pcb design mass printed in a a couple days in Shenzhen. That's about it.

China killed its own mobile app companies, to focus on chip manufacturing and other 'tech'. Somehow a national attempt to build semiconductor chips doesnt have the same ring. I don't think it'll succeed.

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if there is no level palying field any participant may cry there is discrimination ..... this has happend with telangana ....and after few years it will be uttarandhra who are looted by rayalaseema dacoits and krishna guntur cunning people

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19 minutes ago, Telugodura456 said:

They are not a master race or anything. But they have reached a critical momentum and a different political system which can marshall resources to one strategic goal MAY give them success.

 

in some tech, Chinese are ahead of the world. like robots for agriculture. They tried to get ahead in semiconductors with Huawei, and were shut down.

just like US shut down japan when it was gaining traction in electronics, and now they are nowhere in the game.

China may be hard to shut down, given their massive internal market. But US is going to go full throttle whenever China comes up with something to compete against them.

they even forced IEEE to ban huawei employees from peer reviewing their papers.

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1 hour ago, Telugodura456 said:

what "feeling" - dont you know data how much they are spending and how much improvement is there in chip industry in china now ?

Chinese have built a 7nm chip through the SMIC, but did not even announce it. because it was a clone of a 4yr old TSMC process that was difficult to scale and was ditched the moment EUV machines became available.

to expect Chinese to not only master the fabbing, but also make the euv scanners, which by themselves have 100s of parts from many different suppliers, all of them in US/Europe is a bridge too far to for even China to cross.

building a process with outdated tech that was stretched too far to be useful, with ex TSMC employees, is not the same making strides in semiconductor space.

more like chinese learning to make nuclear reactors, when the world has moved on to working on portable fission and even fusion energy reactors.

 

 

 

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There's an official push in China towards self-sufficiency, and eliminating reliance on imports. The US used to have such a policy during the Cold War.

The coal and steel fixation created the European Union, which was originally "the European Coal and Steel Community". Britain grew to be a world power through coal and steel. As those declined in importance, they were taken over by the Government, under what was derisively called "lemon socialism". There was British Steel, British Coal, British Rail... All the old labor-intensive plants.

China has problems with inefficient state-owned businesses, which tend to be jobs programs. They're mostly owned by provincial and municipal governments, not the national government. Lots of steel mills and coal mines, inevitably. But since they make steel for export, they can't be too inefficient.

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if China do indeed upstage the US in semiconductor race, it'll only be because US fcuked up the logistics of trying to keep China from getting leading edge tech in semiconductor space. It's a mistake they even tried to in the first place. semiconductor manufacturing is way to intricate supply chain for any one country to be calling the shots.

to be speculating that China can 'develop' their own process is just pointless. There's no need to, when China can focus on completely new technologies while buying semiconductors from taiwan.

but ofcourse it isn't China's doing. They were forced into it by the US, and are biding their time waiting for the entire blockade to crash, while they do their own little experiments in furthering their understanding of semiconductor manufacturing.

it won't be of much help, until the US chip blockade on China fails.. and suppliers like asml don't want to lose out on the large chinese market. I hope that happens.

true progress is made by exchanging ideas, not by closing off each other's tech and wasting time duplicating efforts that were already achieved elsewhere.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Raven_Rayes said:

Chinese have built a 7nm chip through the SMIC, but did not even announce it. because it was a clone of a 4yr old TSMC process that was difficult to scale and was ditched the moment EUV machines became available.

to expect Chinese to not only master the fabbing, but also make the euv scanners, which by themselves have 100s of parts from many different suppliers, all of them in US/Europe is a bridge too far to for even China to cross.

building a process with outdated tech that was stretched too far to be useful, with ex TSMC employees, is not the same making strides in semiconductor space.

more like chinese learning to make nuclear reactors, when the world has moved on to working on portable fission and even fusion energy reactors.

 

 

 

EUV machines are way overhyped. The real innovation is TSMC manufacturing process.

And i dont know why uou are overhyping this "ex-tsmc" employee - simply hiring ex-employees wont re-create all the success of the employee. Shows your poor understanding how corporates are run.

Eventually chinese labs, universtities along with their industries will need to figure it out.

 

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