Inflation rose 0.5% in January

[*Prince Charming]

Inflation inkaa red hot undi. Inka feds kooda 0.5% hike chestaremo.....

[CBNmyGOD]

1 minute ago, *Prince Charming said:

Inflation inkaa red hot undi. Inka feds kooda 0.5% hike chestaremo.....

[AndhraneedSCS]

Inflation YOY decreased by 0.1%. Probably no more than 0.25 in March. So, todays data is not everything.

 

Also, there will be one more CPI coming before the next fed meeting (Fed meeting on March 23rd and CPI will be released on March 14)

[Sucker]

No one scratch Biddu thatha antha political picha light ee numbers manaki printing press vunnatha varaku 

[csrcsr]

Jobs untaya illu rates tagutaya layoffs pothaya antuna db uth

[JANASENA]

What is the current home loan interest rate? 7 8 or 10?

[*Prince Charming]

30 minutes ago, JANASENA said:

What is the current home loan interest rate? 7 8 or 10?

Just under 6% anukuntaa......or may be slightly above that....

[dasari4kntr]

winter...effect...energy hike clearly visible...

remaining looks ok...

 

Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average
 

	Seasonally adjusted changes from preceding month							Un- adjusted 12-mos. ended Jan. 2023
	Jul. 2022	Aug. 2022	Sep. 2022	Oct. 2022	Nov. 2022	Dec. 2022	Jan. 2023
Footnotes (1) Not seasonally adjusted.
All items	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.5	6.4
Food	1.1	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.5	10.1
Food at home	1.3	0.8	0.7	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.4	11.3
Food away from home(1)	0.7	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.5	0.4	0.6	8.2
Energy	-4.7	-3.9	-1.7	1.7	-1.4	-3.1	2.0	8.7
Energy commodities	-7.9	-8.0	-4.1	3.7	-2.1	-7.2	1.9	2.8
Gasoline (all types)	-8.1	-8.4	-4.2	3.4	-2.3	-7.0	2.4	1.5
Fuel oil(1)	-11.0	-5.9	-2.7	19.8	1.7	-16.6	-1.2	27.7
Energy services	0.0	1.8	1.2	-0.7	-0.6	1.9	2.1	15.6
Electricity	1.5	1.2	0.8	0.5	0.5	1.3	0.5	11.9
Utility (piped) gas service	-3.8	3.5	2.2	-3.7	-3.4	3.5	6.7	26.7
All items less food and energy	0.3	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	5.6
Commodities less food and energy commodities	0.1	0.4	0.0	-0.1	-0.2	-0.1	0.1	1.4
New vehicles	0.5	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.6	0.2	5.8
Used cars and trucks	-0.8	-0.2	-1.1	-1.7	-2.0	-2.0	-1.9	-11.6
Apparel	-0.1	0.3	0.0	-0.2	0.1	0.2	0.8	3.1
Medical care commodities(1)	0.6	0.2	-0.1	0.0	0.2	0.1	1.1	3.4
Services less energy services	0.4	0.6	0.8	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.5	7.2
Shelter	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.8	0.7	7.9
Transportation services	-0.4	1.0	1.9	0.6	0.3	0.6	0.9	14.6
Medical care services	0.4	0.7	0.8	-0.4	-0.5	0.3	-0.7	3.0

[dasari4kntr]

Rent Deflation: Wait For It

Soaring demand for houses and apartments from low interest rates and remote working caused shelter to contribute more than half of December’s 5.7% core CPI inflation. But as Mr. Powell put it, disinflation in housing “is in the pipeline.”

 

Economists agree: they expect this category to continue rising through the spring, but then to decelerate. Jake Oubina, senior economist at Piper Sandler, forecasts shelter inflation will fall from 8.1% in March to 5.3% by December.

That reversal comes down to how pandemic-driven shifts interact with inflation methodology. To measure what tenants and homeowners pay for housing, the CPI includes new and existing leases, and thus reflects changes in new leases with a lag. Those new leases are now slowing sharply; Zillow’s index of new leases declined at a three-month annualized rate of 3% in December. This portends a steep deceleration in the CPI’s housing measure, which grew 7.5% in December, said Mr. Oubina. 

He expects housing will continue to boost inflation but that its contribution to the 12-month increase in CPI will peak in June and shrink by 0.7 of a percentage point by December, relative to a year earlier. That is for the CPI, of which shelter makes up nearly one-third. Housing is just 15% of the PCE index and thus has less influence there.  

[dasari4kntr]

Recession, or Not

Economists who expect inflation to fall back to the Fed’s target by year-end generally expect the process to be assisted by a recession as higher interest rates stifle spending, and declining profits drive firms to shed workers, pushing unemployment up from January’s 53-year low of 3.4%.

 

Investors Don't Believe the Fed’s Inflation Plan. Here’s How We Know.

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Monetary policy affects the economy with a delay, so little of the decline in inflation so far is because of the Fed’s rate increases in the past year, said Mr. Detmeister. “The biggest impact shouldn’t be until probably late this year at the earliest,” he said.

By the middle of this year, “we expect to see the economy going into a recession and the unemployment rate increasing up to 4.5% by the end of this year, and to 5.5% by the end of next year,” said Mr. Detmeister. He sees core inflation falling to 2.3% by year-end. 

But there is as yet no sign of such a recession in consumer spending, which drives around 70% of U.S. output. Incomes, excluding transfer payments, are now rising faster than inflation, which will buoy spending and keep a downturn at bay, said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research.

 

[ARYA]

2 hours ago, csrcsr said:

Jobs untaya illu rates tagutaya layoffs pothaya antuna db uth

nuvvu matram houses meda houses sign chestuu undu

[csrcsr]

okati ardam kaadu why intha worry on numbers ??? i undertand numbers and stats dont lie 

but gas is in control, supply chain in control all the small business jobs are intact 

some vaapu chusi muscle  anukuna techish companies boltha padayi 

cant they go by mnonth on month my point is daily e numbers petti panic create chese badalu andaru productive ga work cheuskunte econmy pump avada more than increaisng productivity just numbers game tho economy sakaga cheddam anukuntunaro emo

PS: nannu 10engamakandi ido oka pedda economist ayinatlu ani just common man avadena

[dasari4kntr]

6 minutes ago, csrcsr said:

cant they go by mnonth on month my point is daily e numbers petti panic create chese badalu andaru productive ga work cheuskunte econmy pump avada more than increaisng productivity just numbers game tho economy sakaga cheddam anukuntunaro emo

 

how do you measure this productivity...? with out numbers..?

[csrcsr]

12 minutes ago, dasari4kntr said:

how do you measure this productivity...? with out numbers..?

They are not doing work pumping free money during covid (which was needed i guess to protect) Just pumping money and burning cash , from last two years except this Chat GPT and some AI companies , some nuclear fusion research no significant break throughsno innovation which we can remember ,

antakamundu decade chudu like cloud, ride share companies , EV, BIo , cloud business companies like sales force workday every 6 months oka 2 BN company news lo untunde 

[dasari4kntr]

6 minutes ago, csrcsr said:

They are not doing work pumping free money during covid (which was needed i guess to protect) Just pumping money and burning cash , from last two years except this Chat GPT and some AI companies , some nuclear fusion research no significant break throughsno innovation which we can remember ,

antakamundu decade chudu like cloud, ride share companies , EV, BIo , cloud business companies like sales force workday every 6 months oka 2 BN company news lo untunde 

agree about what you said..but we are in post covid era...correction phase..all the new inventions and business happen if there is stable situation atleast five to six years...

since covid...where is the stable situation..? covid (multiple waves), china supply chain issues, russia ukrain war, inflation, uk, srilanka, pakistan economic crisis..etc...among all these issues...we cant expect much...

coming to numbers...but still we need numbers to measure that...thats the difference between facts vs opinions...

facts (numbers) will tell whats happening around...opinions differ from person to person...