Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2022 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits

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Real gross domestic product(GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.7 percent. The revision primarily reflected downward revisions to exports and consumer spending (refer to "Updates to GDP"). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down.

The increase in real GDPprimarily reflected increases in private inventory investment, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and exports. Imports decreased (table 2).

The increase in private inventory investment was led by manufacturing (mainly petroleum and coal products) as well as mining, utilities, and construction (led by utilities). The increase in consumer spending reflected an increase in services that was partly offset by a decrease in goods. Within services, the increase was led by health care as well as housing and utilities. Within goods, the leading contributor to the decrease was "other" durable goods (mainly jewelry). Within nonresidential fixed investment, increases in structures and intellectual property products (mainly software) were partly offset by a decrease in equipment.  The increase in federal government spending was led by nondefense spending. The increase in state and local government spending primarily reflected an increase in the compensation of state and local government employees.

Within residential fixed investment, the leading contributors to the decrease were new single-family construction and brokers' commissions. Within exports, a decrease in goods (led by nondurable goods excluding petroleum) was partly offset by an increase in services (led by travel as well as transport). Within imports, both goods (led by durable consumer goods) and services (led by transport) decreased.

Real GDP decelerated in the fourth quarter, increasing 2.6 percent after increasing 3.2 percent in the third quarter. The deceleration primarily reflected a downturn in exports and decelerations in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. These movements were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment, a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment, and an acceleration in federal government spending. Imports decreased less in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter.

Current‑dollar GDP increased 6.6 percent at an annual rate in the fourth quarter, or $414.1 billion, to a level of $26.14 trillion, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point, or $7.0 billion, from the previous estimate (tables 1 and 3). More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file on BEA's website.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter, the same as previously estimated (table 4). The PCE price index increased 3.7 percent, the same as previously estimated. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 4.4 percent, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point.

Personal Income

Current-dollar personal income increased $398.8 billion in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of $10.8 billion.  The increase primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries) and government social benefits (table 8). Within government social benefits, the increase primarily reflected an increase in "other" benefits reflecting state stimulus payments to individuals in the form of one-time refundable tax credits. Disposable personal incomeincreased $403.0 billion, or 8.9 percent, an upward revision of $10.9 billion from the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income increased 5.0 percent, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point from the previous estimate.

Personal saving was $758.8 billion in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of $3.8 billion from the previous estimate. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.0 percent, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate.

Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits

Real gross domestic income(GDI) decreased 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.8 percent in the third quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent in the third quarter (table 1).

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $60.5 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with a decrease of $1.3 billion in the third quarter (table 10).

Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $59.0 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with a decrease of $1.8 billion in the third quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporationsdecreased $22.9 billion, in contrast to an increase of $16.1 billion. Rest-of-the-world  profits increased $21.4 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $15.5 billion. In the fourth quarter, receipts increased $7.2 billion, and payments decreased $14.2 billion.

Updates to GDP

With the third estimate, downward revisions to exports and consumer spending were partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down.  For more details, refer to the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the "Additional Information" section that follows.

 

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