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Good news - Recession probability reduced to 20%


Hitman

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Goldman Sachs now sees just a 20% chance the US economy enters a recession in the next 12 months.

The firm had previously projected a 25% chance for a recession and remains well below the consensus estimates it cites from the Wall Street Journal that show a 54% chance. 

"The recent data have reinforced our confidence that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession," Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote on Monday in a note titled "The Narrative Turns."

Investors have been closely watching for signs of whether the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes will send the US economy into a recession. But Goldman Sachs' call comes after the latest string of economic data have depicted a resilient US economy. The June jobs report revealed a 3.6% unemployment rate that is still historically low while average hourly wages increased 4.4% compared to last year. Overall, the labor market added 209,000 nonfarm payrolls that month.

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