Fed's last rate hike coming at July meeting, economists say: Reuters poll

[andhra_jp]

BENGALURU, July 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 5.25%-5.50% range on July 26, according to all 106 economists polled by Reuters, with a majority still saying that will be the last increase of the current tightening cycle.

Inflation is falling, with the headline consumer price index (CPI) measure slowing to 3.0% in June from 4.0% in May. That led many observers on Wall Street to conclude inflation might soon be tamed, prompting some to renew bets that rate cuts could happen by as soon as the end of 2023.

But none of the inflation gauges polled by Reuters - CPI, core CPI, PCE and core PCE - were expected to reach 2% until 2025 at the earliest.

The strong labor market is only expected to loosen slightly, nudging up the unemployment rate to 4.0% from the current 3.6% by the end of 2023, the poll showed.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents to a separate question, 27 of 41, expected a U.S. recession within the next year, with 85% of them saying it would start at some point in 2023.

Still, the economy was expected to grow 1.5% this year, up from the 1.2% predicted a month ago, and then slow to 0.7% next year.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-last-rate-hike-coming-july-meeting-economists-say-2023-07-19/

[Hitman]

Ladies nail of the coffin… Amen