AP 2024

[Android_Halwa]

42 minutes ago, Rendu said:

As long as cbn is alive, he won't let it happen..... Kaneesam TTdp Jr.ntr ki icchina kaneesam enno konni seat lu vacchevi... Chetulara nasanam chesi 10gadu .... Let him die ... 

Anukovadame thappa Jr NTR vasthe TDP ki malli life vastadi anedi oka pedda myth. The day Lokesh steps aside, that day TDP will be buried deep alive. Had CBN not taken over TDP in 1995, it would not have survived this far…the same thing ipudu kuda Lokesh kakunda inkevadu aina vasthe TDP ni bondha Peteyochu. 
 

Jr NTR vasthe raatha maripotadi anukunte mana raathalu marutayi. It’s not an era where people will vote to film stars. Teda vasthe valla thatha ne vadalaledu..

[Sizzler]

11 minutes ago, Android_Halwa said:

For the 2019 elections, tide turned into Jagan’s favor after Telangana elections. Telangana CM’s press meet after his victory, remember ‘return gift’ press meet. That incident has dented CBN’s prospects completely and turned the tide in favor of Jagan and there after CBN never had a chance to recover.

It’s way too early but Jagan seems to be ahead in the game already. Announced 3 candidates in Vijayawada and this will put pressure on TDP. 

 

Believing Congress will return to power in center and supporting them in Telangana was a big blunder by CBN. Congrsss could have won at least 10 more MLA seats if CBN didn’t enter the picture.

[Android_Halwa]

15 minutes ago, Sizzler said:

@dasari4kntrclarified he meant money distribution through schemes and not during elections. 

agree with you money not being able to alter the entire state election result. 

Even government sponsored schemes and freebies won’t help much. Opposition la vunnodu anthakante ekuva ista antadu…Lokesh is promising 15k for every child who goes to school against one per family now, PK almost confirmed he will not remove schemes but improve…

As we run closer to the election date, we will get to see more and more of such schemes by the government and counter promises by the opposition. 

[Dallas_c_how_dare]

Lol raa yeddi ricebag gallu antha in one place, razakar ideas panchukuntunnara how to loot people? Oka pakka yesu jaggadu thirupati lo yesu gallani chairman chesthunnadu

[hyperbole]

1 hour ago, dasari4kntr said:

ycp last vote share is around 49%…in my opinion for an party thats maximum in democracy…

from that number i can expect decrease only (still ycp win if it is slightly decrease..)..

but above 50% vote share is unrealistic to me…

btw i am not referring elections time money distribution…i am referring ammavodi and other freebies..

One observation I made in this year’s trip to AP, AP politics are polarized and there is no in betweens, people already know whom they are going to vote in 2024 and that is not going to change much.

where Jagga because successful is gaining the new voters who got voting rights.

Also amma vadi is a big hit like raitu bandu in Telangana, women voters are very happy esp the lower middle class ladies

upper middle class, IT/professionals are not happy since there is no capital investments in productive or revenue making sectors

 

[ARYA]

1 hour ago, reality said:

+1

If no alliance with lolsena, he will be the CM AP 2024… like it or not jaffas and illiterates 

lolsena survives on biskets from Lion Lokesh 

[Sizzler]

17 hours ago, Android_Halwa said:

Even government sponsored schemes and freebies won’t help much. Opposition la vunnodu anthakante ekuva ista antadu…Lokesh is promising 15k for every child who goes to school against one per family now, PK almost confirmed he will not remove schemes but improve…

As we run closer to the election date, we will get to see more and more of such schemes by the government and counter promises by the opposition. 

TDP / JS are pretty much promising the same or more of what Jagan is already doing. People might think what is the benefit of voting for opposition if they are promising the same, especially given the track record of CBN who promises moon and forget everything after coming to power. 

[dasari4kntr]

3 minutes ago, Sizzler said:

TDP / JS are pretty much promising the same or more of what Jagan is already doing. People might think what is the benefit of voting for opposition if they are promising the same, especially given the track record of CBN who promises moon and forget everything after coming to power. 

exactly…thats my point too..

[Sizzler]

1 minute ago, dasari4kntr said:

exactly…thats my point too..

PK should have been among people for last 4 years and fight for people on various issues. Just showing up occasionally doesn’t help a new party. He missed the opportunity to build party and attract leaders.
 

One of the main reasons for Congress to win in 2004 is too much of negative campaign ran by BJP against Sonia which slowly turned into sympathy on her. Just fear PK might be doing the same mistake of blaming Jagan every minute instead of conveying what he wants to do after coming to power. Chiranjeevi is much better in this aspect and at least had “Social Justice” slogan to attract people. 
 

 

[dasari4kntr]

44 minutes ago, Sizzler said:

PK should have been among people for last 4 years and fight for people on various issues. Just showing up occasionally doesn’t help a new party. He missed the opportunity to build party and attract leaders.
 

One of the main reasons for Congress to win in 2004 is too much of negative campaign ran by BJP against Sonia which slowly turned into sympathy on her. Just fear PK might be doing the same mistake of blaming Jagan every minute instead of conveying what he wants to do after coming to power. Chiranjeevi is much better in this aspect and at least had “Social Justice” slogan to attract people. 
 

 

Pk missed the opportunity in 2014 itself...either he shouldnt have joined with TDP or he should have contested in 2014...

 

main problem with TDP and JSP....is  cinema connection...their cadre want to unite in politics but next min fight for movies...YCP dont have this problem and taking advantage of this...

[dasari4kntr]

50 minutes ago, Sizzler said:

One of the main reasons for Congress to win in 2004 is too much of negative campaign ran by BJP against Sonia which slowly turned into sympathy on her. Just fear PK might be doing the same mistake of blaming Jagan every minute instead of conveying what he wants to do after coming to power. Chiranjeevi is much better in this aspect and at least had “Social Justice” slogan to attract people. 
 

 

regarding this 2004 center elections...i read one post yesterday..sharing here...

 

3 irrational feelings with reference to Indian elections.

2004 syndrome, Decoy effect and Event appropriation

The 1st one is very specific to BJP supporters while the 2nd and 3rd are common across all party lines.

In this tweet I elaborate the 1st one with examples.

2004 syndrome - 2004 syndrome is the fundamental irrationalism that stems out of a scarring experience a lot of BJP supporters had during the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, whereby the experience from 2004 guides them into 'not' believing possible outcomes which may be favourable to BJP. This is understandable but not justifiable because every election is different.

Background of 2004 syndrome - India for the 1st time saw a Right Wing Economic government at the center which pushed reforms and ushered a high growth era. The euphoria was created such that people believed that BJP on its own could win 300 seats. Oblivious to the rural distress and the fact that development had not reached the lowest strata of society amidst back to back spells of droughts, BJP bigwigs like Pramod Mahajan, Chandan Mitra, Venkiah Naidu, LK Advani etc pushed for an early elections to capitalize on the honeymoon period of 3 state election victories by BJP in 2003. BJP did quite well in these states but flunked pretty much everywhere else. A bunch of other factors which I already wrote about earlier were responsible for this. However the results came as a shocker. Lower classes did not side with BJP while the middle classes did not turn up in enough numbers. An election where BJP was expected to win 300 seats in the 1st Opinion polls, the party slid downwards and ended up winning just 138 seats. This wasn't just a loss but a scarring experience for BJP supporters of 2004, some of whom still fester that wound today.

How does it play? - Due to this unexpected shock, a group of BJP supporters always perceive any election with caution and at times, even with pessimism. That leads to a different cycle altogether. BJP expected to win and is strong on the ground -> Pessimism plays -> Environment gets negative -> BJP workers get demoralized further -> Loss occurs.BJP has been known to take Ls from Ws due to the 2004 syndrome. Not that this alone is responsible for BJP loss but it is definitely a factor

A few Examples of 2004 syndrome

1. Rajasthan 2018 elections - If you follow the trail, Rajasthan was a closely fought election, so much and so forth that the Congress did not even win a simple majority (101 seats are needed for majority in the House) and it was a hung assembly with BJP getting tantalizingly close to the Congress mark. The BJP just polled 1.2% lower votes than Congress and stopped Congress from winning a majority. However iof you notice the buildup to the campaign, a lot of negativity was spread about Vasundhara Raje by BJP's own supporters. She was demonized with slogans like ;'Vasundhara teri khair nahi'. Do you think an unpopular government would close the elections with just a 1.2% vote share deficit? If you notice 2013 elections, the deficit was a much stronger 12% in favour of BJP. Now that's what you call a real anger wave against an incumbent. A group of BJP supporters pessimism and incorrect reading of the situation led to BJP getting an L instead of W

2. West Bengal 2021 elections - BJP was the challenger and had won just 3 seats in the last Assembly and yet they somehow thought that BJP should win these elections. I had called out before the elections that TMC is headed for a brute majority while BJP will be a distant 2nd which is a good enough performance however a lot of BJP supporters created an environment of victory and prevailed the narrative. When BJP lost (it actually won 77 seats up from 3 last time), again a set of BJP supporters, this time after the election started equating this 'loss' as a 2004 repeat. If you check in reality a non existent party going up from 3 to 77 seats is actually a win but BJP supporters converted this W into another L. Take the example of AAP which won just 5 seats in Gujarat 2022 and celebrated it as a major win.

3. Karnataka -> Telangana 2023 elections - Karnataka which flips government every 5 years saw BJP losing its incumbency but still the party held onto its vote share of 36% so it wasn't a bad performance at all. However I already see an environment created from Karnataka to Telanagna. In Telangana BJP was supposed to be #2 party and Congress #3 party but the fact that Congress won in Karnataka, a section of BJP Telangana supporters have already started the narrative (based on some unfavourable local media coverage in Telangana) that BJP has lost the plot and would be relegated to 3rd position. In reality though BJP has won multiple bypolls of Telangana Assembly in the last 4 years, which is literally impossible for a non existent party and that shows its organizational strength. In a state where the ruling party faces anti-incumbency a sirited BJP could very much capture the opposition space and become #2 party as it did in West Bengal 2 years ago, but the 2004 syndrome might push it to 3rd place.

4. MP, Rajasthan 2023 elections - This one is the most interesting. In the same breath a group of BJP supporters are worried about Rajasthan as the Congress CM is indulging in record breaking freebie policies and at the same time also worried that BJP will lose Madhya Pradesh elections because 'guess what' MP BJP CM is also indulging in record breaking freebie policies. Now how can 1 approach work for Congress CM of Rajasthan and in the exact same time period not work for MP BJP CM? Either both should work or none should. Besided Rajasthan has a much stronger chance of CM being changed because like many other states, Rajasthan also changes CM every 5 years. Additionally in Rajasthan due to Congress appeasement, Record level Pro Islamist policies a reverse polarization has already occured and results would be obvious. Yet you would see BJP supporters taking L from a position of W in both these states due to the 2004 syndrome.

[Android_Halwa]

2 hours ago, Sizzler said:

TDP / JS are pretty much promising the same or more of what Jagan is already doing. People might think what is the benefit of voting for opposition if they are promising the same, especially given the track record of CBN who promises moon and forget everything after coming to power. 

That’s my view. This elections, one has to choose between credibility. One who is already delivering and claims he can continue delivering the same or better if votes back to power and  then there is opposition who has to claim that they can deliver more than YCP. 
 

oka question adugutaru…power la vunapudu enduku ivaledu ani and this is where the opposition is gonna get trapped. 
 

One capital, three capital, appulu, development, IT parks, paisal panchadam…nothing matters and only thing that matters is the best among the two groups.

[punyavathi]

mana anna malli CM avutadu, Andhra pradesh mothanni dunni 10gutadu

[krystax_admin]

2 hours ago, Sizzler said:

PK should have been among people for last 4 years and fight for people on various issues. Just showing up occasionally doesn’t help a new party. He missed the opportunity to build party and attract leaders.
 

One of the main reasons for Congress to win in 2004 is too much of negative campaign ran by BJP against Sonia which slowly turned into sympathy on her. Just fear PK might be doing the same mistake of blaming Jagan every minute instead of conveying what he wants to do after coming to power. Chiranjeevi is much better in this aspect and at least had “Social Justice” slogan to attract people. 
 

 

PK gadu wanted ly  10ga bettukuntunnadu. It's confusing veedu pro pulka or pro jaffa ani.  Elections ku time approach avutunna kuda candidates ni announce cheyyakapovadam ento, at least e 4 years lo he might worked on cadre  buildup. 

YCP ku matram veedi over action valla sympathy vastundi. 

 

 

[Sizzler]

30 minutes ago, krystax_admin said:

PK gadu wanted ly  10ga bettukuntunnadu. It's confusing veedu pro pulka or pro jaffa ani.  Elections ku time approach avutunna kuda candidates ni announce cheyyakapovadam ento, at least e 4 years lo he might worked on cadre  buildup. 

YCP ku matram veedi over action valla sympathy vastundi. 

 

 

PK ki manchi advisors leru.. or he is ignoring and just going on his own without any agenda besides dethroning Jagan. 
 

He is providing lifeline to TDP this elections and ruining his opportunity to be a legit threat in 2029.