AP 2024

[Sizzler]

1 hour ago, Android_Halwa said:

That’s my view. This elections, one has to choose between credibility. One who is already delivering and claims he can continue delivering the same or better if votes back to power and  then there is opposition who has to claim that they can deliver more than YCP. 
 

oka question adugutaru…power la vunapudu enduku ivaledu ani and this is where the opposition is gonna get trapped. 
 

One capital, three capital, appulu, development, IT parks, paisal panchadam…nothing matters and only thing that matters is the best among the two groups.

Agreed. Especially someone who had been a chief minister for 3 terms doesn’t have credibility and doesn’t even have a single signature scheme of his own. Ippudu kooda Jagan chesina danikante ekkuva chestha antunnadu. 

[Sizzler]

2 hours ago, dasari4kntr said:

Pk missed the opportunity in 2014 itself...either he shouldnt have joined with TDP or he should have contested in 2014...

 

main problem with TDP and JSP....is  cinema connection...their cadre want to unite in politics but next min fight for movies...YCP dont have this problem and taking advantage of this...

I think he was forced to join with TDP in 2014. CBN was very wise to go PK’s house and convince him to join hands. 
 

PK joins hands with TDP when they are in opposition. When they are ruling, he targets YCP and contests separately. His agenda is pretty much “Anti Jagan” and continuing the same. 

[Sizzler]

2 hours ago, dasari4kntr said:

regarding this 2004 center elections...i read one post yesterday..sharing here...

 

3 irrational feelings with reference to Indian elections.

2004 syndrome, Decoy effect and Event appropriation

The 1st one is very specific to BJP supporters while the 2nd and 3rd are common across all party lines.

In this tweet I elaborate the 1st one with examples.

2004 syndrome - 2004 syndrome is the fundamental irrationalism that stems out of a scarring experience a lot of BJP supporters had during the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, whereby the experience from 2004 guides them into 'not' believing possible outcomes which may be favourable to BJP. This is understandable but not justifiable because every election is different.

Background of 2004 syndrome - India for the 1st time saw a Right Wing Economic government at the center which pushed reforms and ushered a high growth era. The euphoria was created such that people believed that BJP on its own could win 300 seats. Oblivious to the rural distress and the fact that development had not reached the lowest strata of society amidst back to back spells of droughts, BJP bigwigs like Pramod Mahajan, Chandan Mitra, Venkiah Naidu, LK Advani etc pushed for an early elections to capitalize on the honeymoon period of 3 state election victories by BJP in 2003. BJP did quite well in these states but flunked pretty much everywhere else. A bunch of other factors which I already wrote about earlier were responsible for this. However the results came as a shocker. Lower classes did not side with BJP while the middle classes did not turn up in enough numbers. An election where BJP was expected to win 300 seats in the 1st Opinion polls, the party slid downwards and ended up winning just 138 seats. This wasn't just a loss but a scarring experience for BJP supporters of 2004, some of whom still fester that wound today.

How does it play? - Due to this unexpected shock, a group of BJP supporters always perceive any election with caution and at times, even with pessimism. That leads to a different cycle altogether. BJP expected to win and is strong on the ground -> Pessimism plays -> Environment gets negative -> BJP workers get demoralized further -> Loss occurs.BJP has been known to take Ls from Ws due to the 2004 syndrome. Not that this alone is responsible for BJP loss but it is definitely a factor

A few Examples of 2004 syndrome

1. Rajasthan 2018 elections - If you follow the trail, Rajasthan was a closely fought election, so much and so forth that the Congress did not even win a simple majority (101 seats are needed for majority in the House) and it was a hung assembly with BJP getting tantalizingly close to the Congress mark. The BJP just polled 1.2% lower votes than Congress and stopped Congress from winning a majority. However iof you notice the buildup to the campaign, a lot of negativity was spread about Vasundhara Raje by BJP's own supporters. She was demonized with slogans like ;'Vasundhara teri khair nahi'. Do you think an unpopular government would close the elections with just a 1.2% vote share deficit? If you notice 2013 elections, the deficit was a much stronger 12% in favour of BJP. Now that's what you call a real anger wave against an incumbent. A group of BJP supporters pessimism and incorrect reading of the situation led to BJP getting an L instead of W

2. West Bengal 2021 elections - BJP was the challenger and had won just 3 seats in the last Assembly and yet they somehow thought that BJP should win these elections. I had called out before the elections that TMC is headed for a brute majority while BJP will be a distant 2nd which is a good enough performance however a lot of BJP supporters created an environment of victory and prevailed the narrative. When BJP lost (it actually won 77 seats up from 3 last time), again a set of BJP supporters, this time after the election started equating this 'loss' as a 2004 repeat. If you check in reality a non existent party going up from 3 to 77 seats is actually a win but BJP supporters converted this W into another L. Take the example of AAP which won just 5 seats in Gujarat 2022 and celebrated it as a major win.

3. Karnataka -> Telangana 2023 elections - Karnataka which flips government every 5 years saw BJP losing its incumbency but still the party held onto its vote share of 36% so it wasn't a bad performance at all. However I already see an environment created from Karnataka to Telanagna. In Telangana BJP was supposed to be #2 party and Congress #3 party but the fact that Congress won in Karnataka, a section of BJP Telangana supporters have already started the narrative (based on some unfavourable local media coverage in Telangana) that BJP has lost the plot and would be relegated to 3rd position. In reality though BJP has won multiple bypolls of Telangana Assembly in the last 4 years, which is literally impossible for a non existent party and that shows its organizational strength. In a state where the ruling party faces anti-incumbency a sirited BJP could very much capture the opposition space and become #2 party as it did in West Bengal 2 years ago, but the 2004 syndrome might push it to 3rd place.

4. MP, Rajasthan 2023 elections - This one is the most interesting. In the same breath a group of BJP supporters are worried about Rajasthan as the Congress CM is indulging in record breaking freebie policies and at the same time also worried that BJP will lose Madhya Pradesh elections because 'guess what' MP BJP CM is also indulging in record breaking freebie policies. Now how can 1 approach work for Congress CM of Rajasthan and in the exact same time period not work for MP BJP CM? Either both should work or none should. Besided Rajasthan has a much stronger chance of CM being changed because like many other states, Rajasthan also changes CM every 5 years. Additionally in Rajasthan due to Congress appeasement, Record level Pro Islamist policies a reverse polarization has already occured and results would be obvious. Yet you would see BJP supporters taking L from a position of W in both these states due to the 2004 syndrome.

Interesting study. Thanks for sharing, 
 

BJP which looked like a solid contender in TG is now behind Congress after KA results. Most likely it will be KCR again with BJP , Congress forcing a triangular contest. Congress situation used to be same in TG before but YSR United the cadre and leaders fell in place.Now they have no direction and a big blunder making Revanth Reddy PCC President. 

[KrishnaDevaRaya]

jaggadu malli ravali jaffalu andharu pichollu avvali.

[veerigadu]

Take it easy. AP is a gone case. 2014 division is first bullet. Instead of developing an existing city like Vizag, sendral sir went to forest and started digging dirt. That’s the second one. Jaggad giving unlimited freebies is final nail in the coffin. Andaru kalisi 10ngavettaruuuu…inkaaa eee topic ideseyyadam better anipisthundhiii naaaki ayitheee. 
 

Gelichinoduuu pakka state and Bodi gadidhiii kudavalsindheee. It doesn’t matter who the winner is. 

[Netflixmovieguz]

Ycp election manifesto yet 2 b released and opposition fighting 2 impress ppl 2 continue current welfare schemes. It sums it all