JPMorgan’s bold forecast: India to become 3rd largest economy by 2027, reach $7 trillion by 2030

[Guest]

James Sullivan, the Managing Director of Asia Pacific Equity Research at JPMorgan sees Indian economy doubling to $7 trillion by 2030 with contribution from manufacturing rising to nearly 25% from 17% and exports doubling, to over a trillion dollars.  

 

“I would argue very strong long-term tactical drivers that make India a key overweight from a structural perspective from JPMorgan,” Sullivan said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.

Sullivan expects the manufacturing contribution to India's GDP to rise to nearly 25% from 17% and exports to more than double, to over a trillion dollars.

"From a longer-term perspective, we see massive changes in the overall structure of the Indian economy, which present clear opportunities for sector selection within what we think will be a strong overall market," he said.

Sullivan is also bullish on China with an "overweight" rating.

He pointed to the below-average earnings revision in China, a trend not seen since 2005, suggesting that China may be at an inflexion point in its economic trajectory. Such an inflexion point can often lead to new opportunities and challenges, making it a topic of keen interest for investors, he said.

"In China, we are very focused on specific sectors, if we can focus in line with government policy, if we can focus on deeply beaten down sectors that offer significant valuation support, then we see opportunity. So, it's a slightly different portfolio allocation strategy in each market,” he said.

Why market experts have their eyes on China

There are indications that China is contemplating a boost in its 2023 budget deficit through a new stimulus initiative. This strategy involves the issuance of at least a trillion yuan, equivalent to $137 billion, in additional government debt, with the aim of channelling these funds into infrastructure projects.

Reports also suggest that China is exploring setting up a stock stabilisation fund to bolster investor confidence within the stock market. This prospective plan may entail investments in domestic stocks through established financial institutions and professionally managed funds, as detailed by the Financial Times. The government's investments could potentially be complemented by other collaborating funds and institutions, according to the report.

[Anta Assamey]

2030 ki 7 trillion ante... Current GDP is 3.1 Trillion .. Next 6 years lo more than double aa....Joke aa...

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Anta Assamey said:

2030 ki 7 trillion ante... Current GDP is 3.1 Trillion .. Next 6 years lo more than double aa....Joke aa...

[manadonga]

Adi avvadu amma 

slow infrastructure projects causing stopping indian growth 

indias main problems 

no inland waterways 

not enough train and road ways for goods 

wasting of time is wasting of money 

[shaktimaan]

6 minutes ago, rushmore said:

2020 annatunnaru appudeppudo mana pr star

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, manadonga said:

Adi avvadu amma 

slow infrastructure projects causing stopping indian growth 

indias main problems 

no inland waterways 

not enough train and road ways for goods 

wasting of time is wasting of money 

Yeah...madhyalo ippudu Iran-Israel war kuda vacchetattu undi.....Meanwhile China ready to take on Taiwan....so might not be possible!

[JANASENA]

36 minutes ago, Anta Assamey said:

2030 ki 7 trillion ante... Current GDP is 3.1 Trillion .. Next 6 years lo more than double aa....Joke aa...

Until it is achieved everything is a joke! especially for Indians, 

[Anta Assamey]

1 minute ago, JANASENA said:

Until it is achieved everything is a joke! especially for Indians, 

Happy if it happens... But with the current reality of things Yes it is a Joke...Good Luck with the Optimism...

[no01]

first part India meeda unna matter pakkana petti, ah China growth and predictions meeda evarini adigi ah report publish chesaru? proof reading and consulting chesara from @Telugodura456 ?

atleast ee DB lo china gurinchi edaina post chesemundu did you take permission from him? 

oh paddathi paadu ledu evariki

[JonSnowUSA]

2 hours ago, Anta Assamey said:

2030 ki 7 trillion ante... Current GDP is 3.1 Trillion .. Next 6 years lo more than double aa....Joke aa...

GDP in India is expected to reach 3598.00 USD Billion (~3.6 T)by the end of 2023, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Almost 3.6 Trillion by 2023. 3.1 was in 2021.

[Anta Assamey]

1 minute ago, JonSnowUSA said:

GDP in India is expected to reach 3598.00 USD Billion (~3.6 T)by the end of 2023, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Almost 3.6 Trillion by 2023. 3.1 was in 2021.

Ya google 3.1 ichindi le did not see 2021...Even with 3.6 Trillion we should be going at 10% increase every year for the next 7 years to reach 7 Trillion bro... 

[pizzaaddict]

That's usual and what is so special Ani @JackSeal uncle questioned nirmala 

[Konebhar6]

3 hours ago, rushmore said:

James Sullivan, the Managing Director of Asia Pacific Equity Research at JPMorgan sees Indian economy doubling to $7 trillion by 2030 with contribution from manufacturing rising to nearly 25% from 17% and exports doubling, to over a trillion dollars.  

 

“I would argue very strong long-term tactical drivers that make India a key overweight from a structural perspective from JPMorgan,” Sullivan said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.

Sullivan expects the manufacturing contribution to India's GDP to rise to nearly 25% from 17% and exports to more than double, to over a trillion dollars.

"From a longer-term perspective, we see massive changes in the overall structure of the Indian economy, which present clear opportunities for sector selection within what we think will be a strong overall market," he said.

Sullivan is also bullish on China with an "overweight" rating.

He pointed to the below-average earnings revision in China, a trend not seen since 2005, suggesting that China may be at an inflexion point in its economic trajectory. Such an inflexion point can often lead to new opportunities and challenges, making it a topic of keen interest for investors, he said.

"In China, we are very focused on specific sectors, if we can focus in line with government policy, if we can focus on deeply beaten down sectors that offer significant valuation support, then we see opportunity. So, it's a slightly different portfolio allocation strategy in each market,” he said.

Why market experts have their eyes on China

There are indications that China is contemplating a boost in its 2023 budget deficit through a new stimulus initiative. This strategy involves the issuance of at least a trillion yuan, equivalent to $137 billion, in additional government debt, with the aim of channelling these funds into infrastructure projects.

Reports also suggest that China is exploring setting up a stock stabilisation fund to bolster investor confidence within the stock market. This prospective plan may entail investments in domestic stocks through established financial institutions and professionally managed funds, as detailed by the Financial Times. The government's investments could potentially be complemented by other collaborating funds and institutions, according to the report.

Avuddo ledo teleedu kani .. India lo every Stock market brokerage house, Insurance agents, ULIPs, Insurance companies Telling this reason to invest ... Today only I heard this from ICICI Pru agent and another DMAT company rep.

[Guest]

8 hours ago, Konebhar6 said:

Avuddo ledo teleedu kani .. India lo every Stock market brokerage house, Insurance agents, ULIPs, Insurance companies Telling this reason to invest ... Today only I heard this from ICICI Pru agent and another DMAT company rep.

India lo invest cheyyaku unless you're planning on returning to India someday. 

[lokesh_rjy]

12 hours ago, Anta Assamey said:

2030 ki 7 trillion ante... Current GDP is 3.1 Trillion .. Next 6 years lo more than double aa....Joke aa...

Y not 10T $ by 2030